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I decided to allow myself a few days of reading and reflecting before contributing to any discussions on the Grand National and having read I had originally planned a lengthy monologue of reflections from Saturday and thoughts going forward with regards to the great race, however it became clear to me this afternoon that I have been putting it off, like a difficult conversation. So instead I will compare the race to that pig in an episode of the Simpsons where Lisa becomes a vegetarian. I will post a link below.
Pig = The Grand National
Homer = The racing media and Aintree
Bart = The racing public
Lisa = I’ll leave that up to youBased on discussions here and elsewhere it feels like we’re just waiting for a Bart to say their line. Which breaks my heart.
Like you Bobby I’ve ended up with far more than I intended
Main bets are:
Hewick – I honestly think if he is still standing after the canal turn first time he’ll win.
Vanillier – He needs a bit more help from his rider (should have won in 2023) but he’s in rare form.
Bravemansgame – The closer we get the more I feel this is a Nichols masterclass. I really think he has a shout.
My each way fun is:
Royal Pagaille – Not got his ground and is handicapped to lose, but he’s an old friend and I’ve waited years for this.
Twig – If you can forgive those at the top of the market for poor runs, then you can fogive Twig too. Clearly been the plan.
Hitman – I’m a glutton for punishment and I “missed the price”, but he’s nutty enough to just click here.
A rare saver for me in this:
Iroko – Not my typical National type, but he was my first bet after his Cheltenham run. He could be anything.
I wanted four and ended up with seven… and despite all this you just know Meetingofthewaters is going to win.
Haha yeah he’s a bit of a rogue, but half the fun of the National is making cases for the no hopers!
Hitman was 150/1 in a couple places a couple days ago… he’s 33/1 most places now
I was hoping for 100/1 7 places in the morning, but that plan has well and truly gone to the cleaners!
“That will mean the connections of them 4 reserves coming to Aintree for nothing in most cases. Are you prepared to pay for their petrol.”
A slightly more emotional response than I was anticipating.
That said, I am rather confident that connections of the reserves for the Grand National would be more than willing to take their chances for the price of fuel. Plus there is a three mile handicap chase on the same card that they may take up instead, so their journey needn’t be completely wasted. And if they don’t wish to take that chance; then don’t declare on the Thursday
The cutoff for reserves is 1pm tomorrow. Hopefully one day that is extended to 10am the day of the race.
Will anyone believe me if I said I backed him once Fier Jaguen was not amongst the confirmations?
He needs a trip or fences or both. If he was mine I’d be looking at middle distance novice chases with a view to making him a stayer. There’s clearly something not quite clicking with him and hurdles at that sort of speed now.
I don’t believe he was beaten at the time.
Old friends The Real Whacker and Djelo for a bit of each way interest. Djelo is unexposed at this sort of trip and The Real Whacker gets his ground. Both big prices, so worth a go.
Those rising temperatures are concerning me. If Saturday is anything like Thursday (18’C and sunny), I would hope that the ITV lot take the time to reiterate to viewers the possibility of jockeys dismounting immediately after the line so it doesn’t come as an unsightly shock as it has in previous years (2011, 2015, 2017).
I really can’t get my head around the calls for the Grand National to take place later in April (as a season closer no less) when the weather is naturally going to be warmer and the ground quicker. I always think seeing jockeys dismounting because their horses have gotten too warm to be a much worse look than heavy ground finishes.
I personally would be cementing the first Saturday of April as National day every year (Easter or not) and if trainers insist that their best horses can’t possibly do both then so be it. One finds these horses have remarkable recovery times when the prize money is right anyway.
Disappointing, I was looking forward to seeing him in this. I really thought he had a shout.
I have added Royale Pagaille while the big price remains, but I’ll likely wait until the day now if I want to add anything else or top up with better each way terms.
Hitman, Twig and Minella Indo continue to catch the eye, but I’ll wait.
Looking like it’ll be dry week.
I do think the first fix is to move the weights reveal to after Cheltenham. I am a supporter of win and you’re in races, but there are far less complications to simply moving the weights lunch (if such a thing is truly required).
With a three week gap you could have a neat build up to the big race with the weights revealed three weeks ahead, the last withdrawal stage two weeks ahead, then the five day decs the week of the race. Cheltenham takes media precedence from October to March, so rather than let something as significant as the weight reveal be lost in the shuffle; make it the statement event post-Cheltenham.
It’s a smashing set of entries. Loads of old favourites here.
Arizona Cardinal is just one pound higher than when winning this last year. This is a race that historically rewards course form and he has to be of interest.
Ginnys Destiny is a very interesting entry considering how highly regarded he was this time last year. A bit like Paul Nichols’ National runners; lowering their sights could bare fruit. Just look at Caldwell Potter. 148 is a pretty mad mark.
Ga Law has been competetive this season off a higher mark than what he’ll have if trapping here. Trainer has always had National aspirations for him, but this has always been more realistic.
It was a joy watching Eldorado Allen jump round in last year’s Grand National and he’s another who has been competetive this season off higher marks, for all this looks far more competetive. Can’t leave him alone, regardless.
Dan Skelton will have something up his sleeve with Le Milos who looked so good at Warwick in February. I’ve a feeling they’re going to target all these Aintree races going forward and this will be their starting point.
Five is plenty, so I will try to whittle it down between now and the days leading up to it.
I’ve backed Fier Jaguen like losing was out of the question for the last two runnings. He unseated when going well the first time and didn’t line up the second! I’m a glutton for punishment and I’ll go in again. He’s still super consistent and he’s Bradley Gibb’s sole entry, so I’m confident he’ll turn up this time!
Great to see Evas Oskar again and he’s of interest. Another who was running a big race when unseating over these fences a couple years ago. Has aquitted himself well in hunter chases so far. The trip is on the sharp side, but I’ll be having a small go.
I like to look at anything J J O’Shea sends here and he has two in Gracchus De Balme and Willewonga. The former’s form ties in with My Drogo, who is understandably well fancied. The latter’s form ties in with Evas Oskar, so if I like one, I have to like the other!
I don’t really want four, but I can’t nail any one down at this point.
I’m probably in the minority and don’t really mind the four day setup. While I’m not the biggest fan of the sheer volume of novice hurdles, I adore staying chases so the likes of the cross country and Kim Muir would all be big losses to me personally.
I think the main outliers now are the mares races. The two hurdle races would surely benefit from rating caps? Maybe 150? Funnel those really good mares into the Championship races. The Mares Chase is such a none event that it needs a proper overhaul if they are going to keep it. What about making it a handicap and putting in qualifiers throughout the season? Basically a Pertemps Mares Chase?
I’d be tempted to put a cap on the Ryanair aswell (160?), but I’ve softened my stance on that race in recent years.
