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I’m going to take an each way punt on Gordon Elliott’s Search for Glory here who is currently as high as 33/1 with 6 places. 48.0 on the machine.
Reached a mark of 143 over hurdles, is now 143 over fences in Ireland. Has been given 147 here. There’s more to come from him.
Won a beginners chase well in Galway in October, then finished a short head second in a 3 runner Novices race. The 3 runners were Gigginstown runners for Gordon so I wouldn’t spend too much time analysing that one.
He then ran in the G1 Faugheen novices hdl over just 2m3.5f, his shortest distance since his bumper days, but finished a decent 3rd.
Disappointed in a 2m5f hcap last time which again was shorter than ideal. But Gordon said that he has had his eye on this race for some time and maybe crucially, the horse did need that fourth run over fences to qualify.I don’t think he’s chucked in by any means but we have yet to see the best of him and I think he has a very good chance of being involved in the places. With a small chance that he is chucked in!
He’s no Inothewayurthinkin but it’s interesting that he has almost a carbon copy season so far to Inothewayurthinkin before he hacked up in the Kim Muir last year. And is now well fancied for the Gold Cup and Grand National.
O’Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
02Feb25 Leo 21½ Y HcChG3 74K 11-4 10/16 (27L Backtonormal 9-13)
04Feb24 Leo 21½f Y/Sft HcChG3 78K 10-9 9/25 (30L Heart Wood 10-1)Guinness Faugheen Novice Chase (Grade 1)
28Dec24 Lim 19½ Y/Sft NvChG1 52K 11-12 3/7 (4½L Impaire Et Passe 11-12)
28Dec23 Lim 19½f Hy NvChG1 53K 11-12 3/5 (7L Gaelic Warrior 11-12)Beginners/Novices Chase
23Nov24 Pun 24 Sft NvChG2 19K 11-3 2/3 (shd Stellar Story 11-3)
25Nov23 Pun 24 Sft Ch 7K 11-12 t1 2/11 (15L Gaelic Warrior 11-12)Beginners Chase
27Oct24 Gal 22½ Y/Sft Ch 8K 11-12 1/12 (8L Sa Majeste 11-12)
07Nov23 Fai 16½ Hy Ch 7K 11-12 2/11 (2½L Imagine 11-12)Any talk of Skelton’s Galia Des Liteaux coming here?
Highly thought of and loves heavy ground. Comprehensively beat Nicolls Complete Unknown back in January who went off 4/1 favourite for the Hennessy lately off 152.
I’ve had some 50s. Though I suspect a race like this may really suit I have my doubts that it is the next step for her.
Plenty of form and trends about but the fact is you often just need a dour stayer to win this. The market leans towards the ‘on the up’ horses but while a few of them look very promising this trip is an unknown.
I’ve given a chance to Defi Bleu e/w. Using Betfair’s ‘Edge’ I took 40/1, 5 places (so watch him come 6th!).
He’s far from reliable but won at this meeting last year and has had some good races in defeat this year, notably over 3m4f in both the Cork National and the Grand National Trial at Punchestown in which he finished strongly both times. I’d prefer he hadn’t went to Cheltenham but he ran ok there too. A feather weight and a 5lb claimer, if he can keep in touch he could finish stronger than others.
I’m also drawn to Max Flamingo who will have been targeted at this all year and could easily improve on his 7th last year where he didn’t get the most straightforward of trips. 33/1
I’ll go for Baradar at 14/1 (e/w, 6 places). He went up to a mark of 110 after a fine 3rd on this track in the Vertem Futurity G1 as a 2yo on heavy ground. Lost his way until having his first and only run for George Boughey in November when he won comfortably off 93, again at this track and again on heavy ground.
Still 13lb off his highest rating and this will have been the plan all winter. At 14/1 it’s worth taking the chance that his new stable have found the key to him.
The 4yo potential group horse in a handicap entries will always top the betting here but past winners like Johan last year (28/1), Bravery in 2017 (20/1) and Levitate in 2013 (20/1) show that the value can often be with horses that have switched stables over the winter.
It would have been a first for me, maybe even a once off as I’ve never been and am across the Irish Sea so I wouldn’t have minded the expense.
The tickets were a gift but unfortunately I’m otherwise engaged on those dates. The thread was an attempt to restore some funds to the gifter.
I do love Aintree. It was actually the Sefton/Becher meet I’ve had on my to do list but now that they’ve split them they’re much less appealing. Maybe I’ll make the National meet at some stage.
Thanks for your help.
Wasn’t aware that there was a refund policy (there is). Just 75% of ticket price but I’ll take it.
Thanks all.
No strong selection at all here.
I really liked School Boy Hour‘s PaddyPower win at Leopardstown. He passed plenty of horses in a very, very good field. Judging by the interviews after there seemed to be plenty of confidence about him that day too. Hasn’t any extreme distances in the bag so there is that unknown, but that run in the Paddy Power is what you want to see. Made a bad mistake in the Kim Muir last time out when favourite but there’s more to come from him.
That’s what my head says. My heart…
Blaklion. I wouldn’t be advising anyone to back the 13yo but I have a soft spot for him and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he runs well again. I wasn’t actually going to back him but Powers/BF went 100/1 yesterday and I couldn’t resist a bet with both (6 places). A veteran of the race, it’s his second season with Dan Skelton and Dan sounds a lot happier with his prep this time than last year. This trip does stretch him a bit but the good ground should help. Age will catch up with him at some stage and that may well happen here but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him run well again. The first time tongue tie is probably clutching at straws a bit but you’d never know.
Can’t wait for the race and I’ll cheer on any of those trainer/owner/jockey combos who have never won it before.
Via Dolorosa e/w at 40/1 (and some 55.0), despite running in the Scottish National last weekend.
His first two runs for the Pipes were over the national fences this winter – 4th in the Grand Sefton and he was racing prominently in the Becher when badly hampered and unseating at the 12th (the RP say ‘going easily’ when hampered but there was a long way to go). The mishap was absolutely no fault of his own.
Had his wind done in January and has won twice since. Just a pound higher now than when running in the Becher, Tom Scu takes the ride off just 10-2.
Races prominently which is a plus around here and he takes the fences well. That run last weekend isn’t ideal but he wasn’t pushed when the writing was on the wall, I’m sure they had this in mind. He did have some short breaks between races in France so hopefully he can take it. The Pipes are in good form (8 wins from last 15) and I think 40/1 is a very fair price with extra places.
Had a quick look at this and in a race that often results in a big priced winner I like Jersey Bean at 25/1. An improving horse he needs this good ground. Three runs and two wins in the last year, winning ‘gamely’ both times and staying very well. This 4 miler could be right up his street.
Ametist for me but Tom Segal has messed up the price. Am on at 20.0 on the machine but had been waiting to get some 16s e/w. Price collapsed yesterday – if it drifts I’ll get on but if not I’ll stick with my win bet.
Also have a small bet on Safe Voyage at 75.0.
I’m going to give Grand Roi a go here. Went off favourite last year but things didn’t go his way. It would be a big stretch to say he would have won with a clear round but he definitely has the ability to be involved. He’ll be staying on and won’t mind any rain, the more the better in fact.
I’ve been ‘boosted’ to 25/1 with 7 places so that’ll do for me.
I put a lot of time into this race and I can deduce that it’s not easy! Frodon could get away from them and I’ve had a small saver there.
I really like Tea Clipper though and I just managed to get on at the last of the 16/1 e/w in a shop dash earlier. Had a good season over hurdles including 3rd in the Coral Cup but chasing was always going to be his thing. He’s a very, very good jumper as he showed at Chepstow in October. He was extremely impressive there and there’s no doubt his next plan was a spring handicap. His Newbury and Kempton runs were all in the sake of meeting the mandatory three chase runs to qualify. Quite a shrewd bit of business too – it’s not often you see a handicapper drop 4lbs and pick up £20k while doing it.
He’ll want the ground as dry as it can get but I expect he’ll run a big race. He could be very, very good.For some reason last year’s winner Vintage Clouds is available at 28/1 (6 places) so I’ve had a go there too. His whole season was based around this race. More runners than last year but the races suits him – he’ll be prominent and stays really well. Sean Quinlan mentioned on the Final Furlong podcast that he felt like he lost his ‘boot’ a bit at Doncaster last time and that he had to niggle him along. He also said he needed the run. He’s 12 so he will fade someday but at 28/1 and 6 places I’m more than happy to take a chance.
Of the others I really wanted to like Kiltealy Briggs. It’s the owners race and they’ve planned this all year. I just don’t think he’ll stay.
I’m really surprised to see Floueur as favourite. Great form on paper but his jumping just can’t be trusted. They reverted to hurdles last season as he was so bad. Made a bad mistake in his opening run this season, his jumping let him down badly in his second race and he made an awful mess of the last fence in his last three races. They’ll go a good pace here and I just can’t see him getting away with it. He won’t be favourite at the off.
I’ve mentioned Frodon and he could prove very difficult to pass. We all talk about handicap marks but running styles often play a major part, especially on decent ground around here.
Our Power was also tempting. In the end it came down to prices.There’s loads who could win it – it’s a tricky one. Best of luck with yours.
I think Blaklion is the one here. Ran a very good race in the National last year and he seems to be in better form this season. Second in 2018 off topweight, he’s 16lbs lower today. Dan Skelton seems to have him as well ever.
He’s not a bad e/w bet with 4 places available. There probably won’t be too many more finishers.
After plenty of further deliberation I’ve had a stake on Vieux Lion Rouge e/w at 14/1. I backed him last year and one thing I will say is that during the race I can clearly remember thinking it was falling into his hands as all of his main rivals made mistakes or fell. That won’t happen again and if he is to win it it’s highly unlikely he’ll win by such a margin. Despite that he was fairly impressive. To try weigh up the form you could look at Kimberlite Candy who managed to repeat second place – though he was up 16lbs. He was a long way behind Vieux and probably had improved so it’s difficult to read.
Tom Scudamore opted not to ride Vieux last year so it was no great plot but the horse loves these fences and that’s half the battle.
The ground has softened up and any more rain will be welcome. He’ll likely be held up in the early stages so he’ll need a bit of luck to avoid mishaps.Of the others I’d love to have the confidence to have a bet on Le Breuil (20/1) who has dropped down the weights but I think his head is more of an issue than any handicap mark. If I knew he’d give 100% he’d be my main pick – and a stronger choice than Vieux at that. He jumps these fences superbly and is one of the few who can gain ground over them but they always seem to have excuses and I just can’t trust him. He has the ability and the mark to win this but maybe not the head.
Venetia is in fine form and it would be no shock if hers run well – Achille and not forgetting Didero Vallis. Didero Vallis has been around the Grand Sefton course twice and should prefer this distance. He’s a bit difficult to make sense of (and to predict) but it would be no shock to me if he’s up there at a very good price.
Of the others who don’t have course form Snow Falcon has been doing nothing wrong lately and will pop up somewhere at some stage. He tends to jump very deliberately and safely at times which in theory should work here but I’ve been stung thinking that before. If he takes to them he could go very well.
As tempting as they are I think it’s best to keep it simple with Vieux Lion Rouge e/w at a fair price.
And as for Blaklion – I just hope I fancy another horse as much as I did him before the end of the season. Still absolutely gutted he was pulled. He won well at Haydock today but I’d have loved to see him here and I have absolutely no doubt that he could have won.
