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Some Derby observations, not conclusions
Records go back to Nashwan in 1989
1. No Derby winner had won over more than 8f as a 2yo
2. All English-trained winners had the word ‘quickened’ in their RP form comments apart from:
a) those that didn’t have a prep at 3 (Shaamit & Lammtarra)
b) those that ran 1st or 2nd in a Guineas (Nashwan & Sir Percy)3. 3/4 Irish-trained winners had competed in the Ballysax (1st or 2nd) & won the Derrinstown at Leopardstown, except New Approach (2nd in Guineas)
4. All winners won their last race except for:
a) those that were beaten in a Group / Grade 1 over shorter trip on last start (Generous, Dr Devious, Sir Percy & New Approach)
b) those who placed 2nd to a horse that did not subsequently contest the Derby (Quest For Fame was 2nd to Belmez and Workforce 2nd to Cape Blanco)5. All winners had won over 10f or 11f as a 3yo unless:
a) they did not contest a European 10f+ race at 3 and ran in a Group 1 as a 3yo (Nashwan, Generous, Dr Devious (ran in Kentucky Derby), Sir Percy, New Approach & Sea The Stars)
b) were unraced at 3 (Shaamit & Lammtarra)
c) came 2nd over 10f to a horse that did not contest the Derby (Workforce)In terms of highest RPR-OR the vast majority of runners have >5 lb (most >7lb – it is lifetime best run after all)
But Butler’s Cabin was 0 lb last year which was enough to put me off (his RPR had been downgraded from 150 to 147 too)
It’s this trends thing – which indicators to rely on and how far back to trust them (and which make sense!)
I’m not a fan of win & place strike-rate – prefer a horse to have won one or two biggish handicap pots rather than be a place specialist
Monty’s Pass – Kerry National
Amberleigh House – Becher 1st, 2nd and 2nd, GN 3rd (Aintree specialist)
Hedgehunter – Thyestes
Numbersixvalverde – Theystes, Irish National
Silver Birch – Becher, Welsh
COD – Eider off topweight
Mon Mome – Cheltenham Listed £55kThat’s interesting because on the GN blog many use strike-rate (win & place) as a key indicator
What you suggest implies that a horse that didn’t win very often but placed frequently (i.e. still a healthy s/r) would not go up that much in the handicap – making it potentially well-in at the weights – i.e. 3rd in the Hennessy and Welsh in the same season would have been largely unpenalised
Whereas winning another handicap over 3m+ would have led to a penalty
Yet now, with no slippage, having a high place strike-rate will be penalised more than in the past
Can anyone let me know what the handicap slippage pre-2003 was all about?
When did slippage occur and what effect would it have had on GN runners?
Was it at season’s end, 31st Dec?
Was it for older horses only?
Etc
Any help much appreciated…
