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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

non vintage

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  • in reply to: Hanami (trained by James Toller) #84743
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    unfortunately (kind of), everyone else seemed to notice this filly’s run in the guineas and she was subsequently pretty short for the oaks.

    in a slightly muddling oaks, she ran a reasonable race without ever looking like winning and my feeling is that she is only ever going to prove top-notch on ground softer than good, and this was (probably) the main reason for her ‘disappointing’ show.

    she ran well enough today on basically good ground and took a decent-enough 10 furlong group 2 race at the curragh (starting price of 5/2) and is still one to follow over 10 furlongs plus on softish ground.

    although connections are unsure of whether she stays a mile and a half, i wouldn’t have too many doubts about that given her breeding and the feeling that her oaks showing wasn’t as a result of a lack of stamina at all. it may be a bit pie-in-the-sky, but if it carries on raining in the states, the breeders’ cup fillies and mare turf event would appear to be a reasonable target!

    in reply to: Wouldn’t THIS be a good race! #91631
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    if i could lay Kalaman at something around 10.0 and Zafeen at around 12.0 i would do so happily! but, yes, a decent enough tissue!

    is there an exacta pool in operation?     :)

    in reply to: Jagger – trained by Gerard Butler #84670
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    hurrah!

    first run after the miserable events at hamilton and the horse bolts up at 3/1 (which seems pretty generous, and more so now!).

    unfortunately i didn’t wade in with my life-savings, and this being the end of the month and all that, my investment involved 3 x £1 exactas, 6 x 50p tricasts and a 50p win double from a yankee where Summer Lightning had gone in. (tricasts no good, but got the exacta which paid a decent £55!).

    this horse won very easily and might still be backable back on turf next time as this was an AWT performance. he still has a ton of improvement in him and should be better suited by good/good-to-soft going on turf so watch out!

    in reply to: Glistening Silver #91193
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    congratulations everyone! i can’t believe i never backed it! well done – hope you are all as happy as i think you might be!

    in reply to: Jagger – trained by Gerard Butler #84666
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    arse, as they say!

    the horse was murdered and then ran on to finish fourth with eddie ahern virtually riding side saddle.

    to make matters worse, i backed it to beat 3 others in 3 x £2 exactas and 6 x £1 tricasts, with two of these three finishing first and second at 33/1 and 6/1, and me a little more out-of-pocket and pretty p!ssed off all round!

    the horse kept on having virtually fallen and will have now gone into just about everyone’s notebook, so we probably won’t get 9/4 again either.

    oh, arse!

    in reply to: Jagger – trained by Gerard Butler #84664
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    runs today in the 4:35 at Hamilton…

    in reply to: Jagger – trained by Gerard Butler #84662
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    update : no engagements now on monday, but definitely one to watch for!

    in reply to: Royal Partnership #84509
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    i agree with much of what you say, although we are talking about what is probably an inexperienced amateur rider, and maybe she just thought the pace was quicker than it actually was.

    the horse clearly has ‘issues’ anyway, but she has won on it and been placed (over a mile if i’ve remembered that right) and she patently stayed too far back for too long without asking the horse to close until too late and even then not really asking it to do much at all.

    almost one to watch, but probably too moderate and quirky to worry about IMHO!

    in reply to: Trainers banned from Exchanges #102119
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    a very strange incident all round involving Royal Insult…

    judging from other recent (less obvious) betting patterns, i would hazard a guess that there is information leaking from the Burke yard, but from whom to whom is anyone’s guess!

    in reply to: Jockey Completion Stats. #101422
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    marko – thanks mate – that is fantastic…

    i think it would be really good to see the list filtered to just UNSEATED and FELL as that might be an indication of skill (or otherwise) over fences for individual jockeys,<br>but only if you’ve got time…

    cheers again!

    in reply to: Racehorse’s NAMES #101332
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    maybe we could have a whole series of these then…

    TRAINEDBYTHE UGLIEST<br>RIDDEN BYA MUPPET<br>BOUGHT BYA TOSSPOT

    and so on and so on…

    (Edited by non vintage at 8:26 am on Oct. 23, 2002)

    in reply to: Hawk Wing #100334
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    Hawk Wing is a very good horse, but NOT a champion… He is definitely beatable, but is only disappointing because of huge amounts of overhype.

    I’m sure that his connections were reluctant to put him under too much pressure until they were sure he wasn’t "wrong" but he still looks to be not quite as good as was hoped.

    why did aidan o’brien bring his string back today? pressure because it was the champion stakes? they weren’t ready…

    in reply to: Luke Harvey Answers your Questions #89943
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    Excellent question and answer session – I haven’t laughed so much in weeks! Thanks to Luke!

    (Edited by non vintage at 6:46 pm on Sep. 7, 2002)

    in reply to: Racehorse’s NAMES #101259
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    oooohhhh……those russians

    in reply to: Racehorse’s NAMES #101249
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    along similar lines, i always thought "BRASS TRAP" would be quite a good (and subtle) name!

    in reply to: Derby analysis #99356
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    Escorial,

    I’m not sure about Hawk Wing being a bottler. It definitely looked a bit like that today but I think we were looking at a tired horse running on empty – he wants 10, maybe 10.5 furlongs and no more, and I thought he actually kept on quite well considering.

    I still wouldn’t rush to back him, and High Chaparral would appear to be a stayer through and through. It is quite likely that, in order to increase his stud value, they will try to get a Group 1 win into him over 10 furlongs, and I would definitely oppose him over that trip!

    in reply to: Derby analysis #99354
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    Escorial,

    I had the unfortunately ill-fated COSHOCTON in the top half (admittedly just) of my dosage-based figures.

    From looking at his style of racing and the strength of his finish in previous events, I estimated that he was one of the four best stayers, likely to stay around 11 furlongs. This was probably about right, although we’ll never be sure now.

    In terms of the form he had shown, I placed him well down the list, with only two runners behind him. I used a ranking system based on the highest two topspeed figures each horse had recorded.

    (Although this has its own problems, I prefer using this type of method to relying on collateral form, which relies on other horses running to the same level of form each time they appear, and this is rarely the case – conditions vary and horses are inconsistent and tempramental. The sad mathmatician within me prefers a computer-calculated, time-based form measurement with minimal human interference.)

    So in my analysis, COSHOCTON’s performance would have been more notable for being an improvement in form than for showing unpredicted or unlikely stamina.

    I guess this shows how we all prioritise different factors and guidelines in unique ways, with each interpretation taking a slightly different angle on facts and opinions available. It’s what makes a forum like this so much fun!

    On a slightly different point, I think too many people assumed that Bandari had proved his stamina by his win in the Lingfield Derby Trial. I think anyone would be hard pushed to say that there were any other top-quality horses in the field, and he had the race won with two furlongs to go. Thus, from the nine furlong pole he was put under no pressure and was asked to do nothing other than keep going. I would be happy to accept that, on this performance, he could show decent form over a distance close to 10 furlongs. I would not, however, assume that his stamina is proven over 12 furlongs plus, and would look for further racecourse evidence.

    (Edited by non vintage at 8:36 pm on June 8, 2002)<br>

    (Edited by non vintage at 8:37 pm on June 8, 2002)

Viewing 17 posts - 1,191 through 1,207 (of 1,212 total)