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Hanami (trained by James Toller)

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  • #3463
    non vintage
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    • Total Posts 1268

    This horse sprang a surprise in a listed race last back-end and made a hugely encouraging seasonal debut today in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.

    Having met very similar traffic problems to Six Perfections, and been outpaced between 4f and 6f, she flew home and grabbed, probably recording the fastest or second fastest final 1f time (I await the sectionals eagerly).

    She is entered in the Oaks and is seemingly crying out for an extra quarter or half mile. Her dam was quite a decent handicapper winning over 10 furlongs and 17 furlongs and being effective between these distances.

    Hanami would appear to prefer a decent amount of cut in the ground, although she clearly acts well enough on good going and her dam also acted on quicker ground.

    In terms of our old friend Dosage, her details are as follows :

    points profile  :  3-0-16-2-5  (26 in total)<br>dosage index  :  0.73<br>centre of distribution  :  -0.23

    My rough-and-ready dosage reckoner estimates that her ideal trip should be from 10.6f to 12.9f, which would be ideal for the Oaks, and wouldn’t rule out the French Oaks if the ground came up soft.

    Hanami looks to be a classy, unexposed filly who has trained on and will almost certainly improve for a step up in trip. Coming from a less fashionable stable, there is always the chance of her starting at value odds as well!

    #84743
    non vintage
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    • Total Posts 1268

    unfortunately (kind of), everyone else seemed to notice this filly’s run in the guineas and she was subsequently pretty short for the oaks.

    in a slightly muddling oaks, she ran a reasonable race without ever looking like winning and my feeling is that she is only ever going to prove top-notch on ground softer than good, and this was (probably) the main reason for her ‘disappointing’ show.

    she ran well enough today on basically good ground and took a decent-enough 10 furlong group 2 race at the curragh (starting price of 5/2) and is still one to follow over 10 furlongs plus on softish ground.

    although connections are unsure of whether she stays a mile and a half, i wouldn’t have too many doubts about that given her breeding and the feeling that her oaks showing wasn’t as a result of a lack of stamina at all. it may be a bit pie-in-the-sky, but if it carries on raining in the states, the breeders’ cup fillies and mare turf event would appear to be a reasonable target!

    #84745
    non vintage
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    • Total Posts 1268

    put in a shocker next time out, trailing home last in a decent enough race but showing absolutely nothing.

    it is possible she has had enough (for now? ever?) but also might be to do with something affecting the yard which had been pretty quiet just before and since.

    i would still be quite interested in her come the autumn and some really soft ground so she isn’t completely discarded just yet!

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