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No need to re-read that chapter Glenn, I have read it many times before. I can definitely see where you are coming from with your arguament and it also tallies with some of Joe Takach’s writing (who I respect hugely). However, I would honestly think that in this case the horse was trying to lose by forcing the early pace, to deliberately ‘stiff’ the horse on a track which we both agree doesn’t exactly favour thoses tactics over the race distance. Either or both of us could be correct to some degree, but I was informed by a rails bookmaker that the horse was ‘not-off’ and I do find it strange that the opposition to the horse on Betfair was so early and so strong.
Nick ÂÂÂ
Glenn ……..
Not letting you get away with your comments quite so easily ……. I assume you do actually have some insights a little bit deeper than looking at Official Ratings ?
Frontrunning at anything beyond sprint distances is totally lunacy on the new polytrack surface unless a graveyard pace is able to be dictated. Therefore one of the easiest ways to fool the uninitiated into believing a horse is trying is to front run. Your other point is that the horse had beaten an awful oppenent last time out. If you had bothered to watch the video of that race properly I am sure you would note that Tong Ice was the recipiant of a ‘good trip’ in that race, and ran a lifetime best piece of form. Also if you kept decent speed figures, which I do and Punter has proven that he does, you would have known that the horse was a worthy favourite on paper and not quite the dog that you obviously believe it to be.
I am sure that due to your position at Betfair you would like to attack anyone who chooses to declare that the sport is another other than squeaky clean. Well I make money partly from acting on inside information and in my opinion cheating goes on practically every day on the a/w.
Nick
After reading a load of nieve rubbish on this thread I feel compelled to jump to Punter’s defense.
I am a full time gambler who specializes in the a/w, and as such I study every race in detail. I am also at times aware of larceny taking place. In my honest opinion, the horse was a definite non-trier, and was never expected to win. The tactics employed just helped to ensure that the horse lost.
Unlike many others I certainly didn’t consider the favourite to be an easy winner, but I would definitely have expected a much better run than occurred.<br>Cheating happens every single day on the a/w and personally I feel Punter should be congratulated for making us all aware of it BEFORE the race !!
How he can be a sore loser BEFORE the race is beyond me. As for discussing Betfair so much I am in total agreement with Daylight …….. do it on your own forum guys !!  :cool:
Jake ………
I use my own standard times and wouldn’t dream of using any that are commercially available. Your mate is on the right lines in my opinion. :biggrin:
In my opinion calculating your own speed ratings is well worth the effort, provided you have the time to spend making them as accurate as possible. It’s probably true to say that the shorter the race distance, the more useful they are. Like DL I have written my own program for calculating speed ratings. The method I use is a combination of the methodology of Andy Beyer and Len Ragozin. As well as the books you have already purchased, I would seriously recommend that you purchase "The Odds Must Be Crazy" by Len Ragozin, published by Little, Brown and co.
All the best to you<br>Nick :cool:
Escorial …….
Nice to see you still putting so much effort into your argument. In my opinion there is nothing wrong with what you are doing, but I am utterly convinced that you would be able to increase your profits if you were to incorporate a staking plan where you have bigger stakes on bigger value selections. Just think what you might have had on Streamstown mate !!
In all seriousness I am trying to be helpful.
Nick  ;)
I don’t think anyone is really asking you to bet on the roll of a dice or the flip of a coin. It is just that they are usefull when trying to explain value as the odds involved are indisputable (provided that the dice or coin are fair).
Quite obviously the odds of calling a coin correctly are even money, and the odds of calling a dice correctly are 5/1.
Well done with your recent bets :biggrin:
Nick
Escorial …..
I wouldn’t say whenever someone picks a winner he has necessarily found a value bet. However if in the long run the particular punter in question makes a profit then it would be probable in my opinion.
I’ve left this wide open for a response that after the race ANY winner was a value bet, but a dice could sometimes be predicted to land on a six, and in my opinion (and I am pretty sure you will agree with me), even after the roll of the dice, someone who had correctly taken only 9/2 on six coming up is a losing punter in the long run. (This of course assumes a fair dice).
As for backing a 5th selection purely because it is the value in the book …… I think like many things it is a matter of personal taste. Personally I don’t do it, so I suppose I am not truly a ‘value’ punter. I am prepared to back my 2nd choice though if I consider it to be good value ……. after all there is never a certainty in ANY race. I do however have a lot of respect for the minority of pro-punters who are prepared to back any horse in a race, as long as they believe they are taking value. (Dave Nevison springs to mind).
I think maybe our methods have a lot more in common than we first realised. :smiley:
All the best
Nick
Ali ……. haven’t been avoiding your question, but I have had so much work to get done today that I haven’t logged on till now. You asked myself and others who believe in pricing up a race and only betting ‘value’,whether or not we believe our books to be 100% accurate.
No Way Mate !!!!!  Nobody’s perfect :(
However I know that due to the methods I employ, the  shorter the race distance, the more accurate I am likely to be. I also know that I am better with certain race types. This doesn’t really matter as I am more than happy to pass whole meetings if I have to. I haven’t had a single bet this week, even though I’ve been spending 10hrs+/day studying the a/w. Maybe I need to be taken off to the funny farm !!!
In all seriousness when there is a marked difference between the price in my book and the actual prices on offer I will have a bet …….. as long as the horse is fit in the paddock. As a guide I use the Kelly Criterion to decide how much I should be putting on.
All the best and I hope this post has helped to answer your question. :cool:
sirspread …..
Totally agree, I would go as far as to say that good speed figures are essential on the a/w especially mid-season when the form would otherwise take a hell of a lot of unravelling. Exactly how to calculate them is the key, and I’m not really sure I could handle opening that particular can of worms on the forum !!!!!!
All the best
Nick :cool:
Escorial …..
At last we are seemingly in agreement :smiley:
In my opinion if you are making money without going to the track then you are getting value when you bet, and you must be a very good judge as well as a selective punter !!  There is little more I can say on the matter.
All the best
Nick
Escorial ………
The more I read your comments the more I am squirming !!
I watch countless horses win that I would have backed had they been at bigger prices, but I am playing to very healthy stakes and NEED to take what I would consider to be a VALUE PRICE every time I have a bet.
I have absolutely no doubt in your abilities, and assuming that when you look back at your betting records you are showing a healthy profit, then I am UTTERLY CONVINCED that you are taking value when you place a bet, whether you are actually concious of it or not !!
All the best, fellow profitable punter !!<br>(and please don’t make me write that over-used cliche again !!!!!!!)   :cool:
Can’t believe the amount of input on this thread since I last looked at the site last night. There are obviously some very good racing brains on the forum.
In reply to Escorial who earlier asked how someone can be happy to miss a winner just because they believed the price to be too short ……..
Last night as an example I stated that I thought Woodlyon had an excellent chance of winning the 2:00 @ Wolverhampton, but due to a likely price of 4/5 I decided not to go racing. Well the horse won and at even money too so I guess I should be feeling pretty stupid at missing a winner………well I don’t !!!<br>I must admit that a small part of me is annoyed that I missed a winner, but in the main I am happy that the selection won nicely as it backs up my selection methods and the accuracy of my self-generated speed figures (which have been difficult to get right recently due to the awful track management at the fibresand tracks). I am sure that I won’t have to wait that long until the next time I put a decent bet down.
Ali ….. hi there !!!<br>As I stated earlier there is more than one way to skin a cat, and tooting’s method of in effect playing his book against the ‘live’ prices is a perfectly reasonable way to play the game. ‘Pro-punter’ Dave Nevison is a prime example of making this method work, although I must admit that sometimes I would personally consider him to be pretty brave to back 33/1 shots which he believes should be 16/1. This is not for me, as although I wil ONLY bet when I consider that I have found a ‘value’ bet, personally I do not have the constitution to put up with the long losing runs which are an enevitable consequence of using such a strategy.
James321 ….. Thanks for the tip re: David Chapman not necessarily liking his horses to win when they are at skinny prices. I have often suspected this to be true of him, and others (Norma Macauley springs to mind), but it is great to have comment on this from someone who is conncected with the stable.
Also as I’m new around here I’d just like to say hello to Daylight, Ali, Razeen, Keith the teeth, ssimps and smithy, all of whom I am yet to encounter.
Keep up the good work everyone !!   :dance:
Hi Michael, glad you’ve joined in the discussion.
You’re absolutley spot on regarding the fact that most on-course bookmakers are basically attempting to balance their books and do not really care about the form as long as they believe their tissue prices are correct. With the over-round obviously in their favour this is a logical way for them to operate.
There is however a minority of bookmakers who are in effect ‘gambling’, not necessarily in every race, but when they believe they have important information which is not available to the majority. This is especially true of the a/w tracks where the formbook will not always find the winners !!
Sometimes bookmakers are ‘forced’ into gambling rather than acting as accountants, especially when there is a low attendance at a meeting and they cannot hope to balance their books. Under these circumstances they will often be lucky to lay half of the horses in a race to significant money.   :spin:
Nick
Full credit to you Escorial, not only for 3 out of 7 max bets including a 14/1 shot but for obviously betting with a selective methodology. I appreciate your point of view, but I think we’ll probably have to agree to disagree. I think in the end everyone is different and there is definitely more than one way to skin a cat ….. or bet profitably on horses.
I am certainly not a very high stakes punter (yet) but I put enough on to make it all worthwile. As I am a firm believer in only betting after evaluating the horses in the paddock this means that I must take into account the expense involved in attending the races. The time involved is also a factor as if I choose to travel I will obviously have less time on my hands to study the next days card. Basically as I said I will only bet when I think a horse is at a value price AND has a great chance of winning.
As an example, at Wolverhampton tommorow I would personally take the view that Woodlyon has an excellent chance of winning the 7f maiden at 2:00. However because of the likely s.p. of 4/5 I will not be going racing.
I’ll try to put up some good bets on the maximum punts section but these aren’t likely to come along too often.
All the best
Nick
Couldn’t agree more James
I’m new around here but it seems that you know the time of day. I noticed you did very well with your maximum punts last year and I’m sure your table of odds/percentages will be very helpful for anyone starting to dabble with pricing up races themselves.
Keep up the good work !!
Nick  :cool:
