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Hi Snowman
I think as everyone else has to risk 1pt with each selection it’s only fair that he has to lay to a liability of 1pt rather than a stake of 1pt ?
In his favour with this method is that he can’t get ‘stung’ by a decent priced winner, and of course if he gets a 4/9 shot beaten he’ll be rewarded as if he backed a 9/4 winner. :)
Day 6 and everyone has a runner !  :cool:
Barry Dennis
Huntingdon  1:40  Central Committee  4th 40/1<br>Huntingdon  2:10  Polish Pilot        u 20/1<br>Huntingdon  2:40  Just Jolly          u 12/1<br>Huntingdon  3:40  Watchful Witness   u 66/1<br>Southwell  2:20   Simon’s Seat       2nd 3/1<br>Southwell  3:20   Warden Warren     u 33/1<br>Southwell  4:20   Gidam Gidam       u 9/2
Today :  Bets = 7   Profit = -7pts  <br>All :  Bets = 32   Profit = -32pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Cormack15
Huntingdon  1:40  Dd’s Glenalla   u 9/1<br>Huntingdon  2:10  Myson        2nd 11/8Huntingdon  2:40  Edmo Yewkay  u 6/1<br>Huntingdon  3:40  Sarasota      u 11/4<br>Southwell  3:20   Glaramara      u 9/2<br>Southwell  3:50   Majestical      u 9/1<br>Wincanton  2:30  Menphis Beury   NRWincanton  3:30  Acertack       u 10/1<br>Wincanton  4:30  Fast Mix       u 14/1
Today :  Bets = 8   Profit = -8pts<br>All :  Bets = 34   Profit = -23.5pts   p.o.t. = -69.12%
<br>Jairducochetfan
Huntingdon  4:40  Accordello  2nd 6/5
Today :  Bets = 1   Profit = -1pt<br>All :  Bets = 2   Profit = -2pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>LetsGetRacing
Wincanton  4:30  Fontanesi   u 20/1
Today :  Bets = 1   Profit = -1pt<br>All :  Bets = 4   Profit = -4pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Stevedvg
Huntingdon  3:10  At Your Request  1st 13/8
Today :  Bets = 1   Profit = 1.63pts<br>All :  Bets = 10   Profit = -2.99pts   p.o.t. = -29.9%
Well done Steve …. you’re making a comeback ! ÂÂÂ
Will Barry’s system ever find a winner ?!?!  :biggrin: <br>
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 5:36 pm on Feb. 10, 2005)
Day 5 picks …….
Barry Dennis
Carlisle  3:30   Tiger Talk      u 18/1<br>Carlisle  4:05   Midlem Melody  u 9/4<br>Lingfield  12:50  Siera Spirit    u 8/1<br>Lingfield  3:05   Silent Storm   u 7/1<br>Lingfield  4:45   Go Garuda    3rd 11/1<br>Ludlow  3:50   Cream Cracker  u 11/1
Today :  Bets = 6   Profit = -6pts<br>All :  Bets = 25   Profit = -25pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Cormack15
Carlisle  3:30   Jaccout          NR<br>Carlisle  4:05   Vulcan Lane       2nd 7/4<br>Lingfield  2:30  Mill By The Stream  u 20/1<br>Lingfield  3:05  Quantum Leap     3rd 5/1<br>Lingfield  3:40  Marajuana        NR<br>Lingfield  4:45  Go Garuda        3rd 11/1
Today :  Bets = 4   Profit = -4pts<br>All :  Bets = 26   Profit = -15.5pts   p.o.t. = -59.62%
<br>Jairducochetfan
no selections
<br>LetsGetRacing
no selections
<br>Stevedvg
Carlisle  1:10  Jorobaden       1st 11/8<br>Ludlow  4:55  Stoop To Conquer   pu 2/1   ÂÂÂ
Today :  Bets = 2   Profit = 0.38pts<br>All :  Bets = 9   Profit = -4.62pts   p.o.t. = -51.33%
<br>
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 5:36 pm on Feb. 9, 2005)
Day 4 picks …….
Barry Dennis
Lingfield  3:00   Silent Storm          u 7/1<br>Lingfield  3:30   Classic Croco         u 14/1<br>Lingfield  4:30   Summer Shades       3rd 12/1<br>Market Rasen  2:20  Black Bullet       pu 9/1<br>Market Rasen  3:50  Sissinghurst Storm  u 6/1<br>Southwell  3:40   Regency Red        2nd 10/1<br>Southwell  4:10   Game Guru          u 25/1 <br>Southwell  4:40   Sahara Silk          u 25/1
Today :  Bets = 8   Profit = -8pts<br>All :  Bets = 19   Profit = -19pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Cormack15
Lingfield  3:00   Double M          u 13/2<br>Lingfield  3:30   Turn ‘n Burn        u 7/1 <br>Lingfield  4:30   Plausabelle        1st 6/1<br>Market Rasen  4:20  Physical Graffiti  3rd 7/2<br>Southwell  3:40   Surdoue          3rd 5/1<br>Southwell  4:10   Come What July    3rd 5/2
Today :  Bets = 6   Profit = 1pt<br>All :  Bets = 22   Profit = -11.5pts   p.o.t. = -52.27%
<br>Jairducochetfan
Market Rasen  3:20   Sardagna   2nd evs
Today :  Bets = 1   Profit = -1pt<br>All :  Bets = 1   Profit = -1pt   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>LetsGetRacing
no selections
<br>Stevedvg
Market Rasen  2:50   Muhtenbar   pu 3/1
Today :  Bets = 1   Profit = -1pt<br>All :  Bets = 7   Profit = -5pts   p.o.t. = -71.43%
<br>
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 5:21 pm on Feb. 8, 2005)
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 10:10 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 10:10 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
Steve
It’s a terrible set of results for ‘my’ group so far ……. Barry’s system is yet to get off the mark, Cormack seems to have seconditis and I think you’ve been a bit unlucky so far.
There’s still a fair way to go !
Day 3 selections …..
Barry Dennis
Sedgefield  3:10   Katie Kai         u 20/1<br>Sedgefield  3:40   Di’s Dilemma      3rd 11/4<br>Southwell  3:20   Bridgewater Boys  u 15/2<br>Southwell  4:20   Simon’s Seat      2nd 7/2
Today :  Bets = 4   Profit = -4pts<br>All :  Bets = 11   Profit = -11pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Cormack15
Sedgefield  3:10   Killing Me Softly  2nd 9/2<br>Sedgefield  4:10   Flake          2nd 11/4
Today :  Bets = 2   Profit = -2<br>All :  Bets = 16   Profit = -12.5pts   p.o.t. = -78.13%
<br>Jairducochetfan
no selections
<br>LetsGetRacing
no selections
<br>Stevedvg
Sedgefield  2:40   Gunner Royal     u 4/1<br>Sedgefield  3:10   Named At Dinner  u 3/1
Today :  Bets = 2   Profit = -2pts<br>All :  Bets = 6   Profit = -4pts   p.o.t. = -66.67%
<br>
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 5:00 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
Hi Lineform
The -100% figure was for profit on turnover which was correct for both Barry and Cormack15 as they’d both lost 100% of their money yesterday. Profit measured against stake (not total turnover) would have given your -500% and -1000% figures.<br>
Day 2 selections …..
<br>Barry Dennis
Hereford  3:20   Harry Harestone    u 33/1<br>Hereford  3:50   Maxie McDonald     NR<br>Musselburgh  3:30   Sovereign State  u 25/1
Today :  Bets = 2   Profit = -2pts   <br>All :  Bets = 7   Profit = -7pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Cormack15
Hereford  3:20   High Peak        pu 11/2<br>Hereford  3:50   Jackem          3rd 6/1<br>Musselburgh  2:30   Count Fosco   1st 5/2<br>Musselburgh  3:30   Allegedly Red  u 25/1
Today :  Bets = 4   Profit = -0.5pts<br>All :  Bets = 14   Profit = -10.5pts   p.o.t. = -75%
<br>LetsGetRacing
no selections
<br>Jairducochetfan
no selections
<br>Stevedvg
Hereford  2:20   Taranis   3rd 5/6
Today :  Bets = 1   Profit = -1pt<br>All :  Bets = 4   Profit = -2pts   p.o.t. = -50%
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 4:55 pm on Feb. 6, 2005)
First day selections for the group I’m checking …….
Barry Dennis
Chepstow  1:35   Prominent Profile   2nd 7/2<br>Lingfield  12:50   Temper Tantrum    u 8/1<br>Lingfield  1:55   Dusty Dazzler       u 14/1<br>Lingfield  2:25   Gidam Gidam       u 20/1<br>Sandown  3:25   Team Tassel       u 8/1<br>Wetherby  3:05   Mister McGoldrick   NR
Bets = 5   Profit = -5pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Cormack15
Chepstow  2:10   Spring Pursuit   3rd 7/2<br>Chepstow  2:45   Terre De Java   pu 4/1<br>Lingfield  12:50   Kew The Music   3rd 11/2   <br>Lingfield  2:25   Terminate       2nd 11/4<br>Lingfield  3:35   Gig Harbor       u 4/1<br>Sandown  1:40   Great Travel     u 6/5<br>Sandown  3:25   Gallery God     3rd 12/1<br>Sandown  4:00   Bathwick Annie   NR<br>Sandown  4:30   Aldiruos        3rd 12/1<br>Wetherby  2:00   Roobihoo       u 5/4<br>Wetherby  3:40   Kimmambo      2nd 10/1
Bets = 10   Profit = -10pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Jairducochetfan
NO  SELECTIONS  !!<br>(please could you let me know what to do if I encounter forecast joint or co favourites …… cheers)
<br>LetsGetRacing
Sandown  3:25   Samon    pu 33/1<br>Sandown  4:00   Roveretto   ur 25/1<br>Sandown  4:30   Geton      u 20/1
Bets = 3   Profit = -3pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Stevedvg
Chepstow  3:15   Royal Katidoki   u evs<br>Sandown  1:10   Iron Man       1st evs<br>Wetherby  1:25   Romany Prince   2nd 13/8
Bets = 3   Profit = -1pt   p.o.t. = -33.33%
Good luck to all !  :biggrin:
(and please let me know if I’ve made a mistake) ÂÂÂ
<br>A shocking start with Jairducochetfan coming out best ! :o   <br>
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 5:26 pm on Feb. 5, 2005)
Ian
I think you’re right that the majority wouldn’t like too much talk of these tactics being used (and it probably isn’t good PR for exchanges), but it’s a free market and personally I applaud Barry for manipulating the market so long as he gets away with it. He’s still taking a risk as if he offers £5K there’s nothing to stop someone taking it and leaving a request for say £15K at the same price.
To a far lesser extent messing up the market is something I’ve done myself – self matching biggish bets very early in the market and leaving requests to make it look like a horse is being backed when it isn’t or vice versa.
I’ve got another theory as to why the early market has much less liquidity …… the robots !
For quite some time I’ve priced up races throughout the evening and early morning allowing people to have a half-decent bet albeit at prices which I consider ‘stingy’. This strategy used to work pretty well – I took quite a lot of bets and managed to bet about 80% of them back at a bigger price as the racetime approached. These days I can’t be bothered because of the robots ……..
Basically I got fed up with being topped by a robot that was only offering to take a couple of pounds. If I put up an offer to take £50 @ 10 (for example), within seconds a robot would offer to take £2 – £5 @ 10.5. This meant I was never at the front of the queue and able to take the first few pounds of ‘mug’ money. Profit margins dropped as I was invariably only taking money on ‘live’ horses and it became a struggle to make a regular profit. For this reason I now rarely bother and concentrate my efforts on the last 10 minutes before the off instead. I’d guess that quite a few other early layers have stopped offering prices too.
I think that this could well be the reason that liquidity has dropped, or at leasty partially responsible for the decrease. Robots who only lay £2-£5 are a pain in the backside as far as I’m concerned and probably very bad for Betfair. Hopefully their owners will give up as more and more people learn how to trick them into laying silly prices.
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 3:12 pm on Jan. 9, 2005)
Thanks for a great read and a detailed reply to my possibly ‘awkward’ question.
Much appreciated ! :cool:
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 5:22 pm on Dec. 10, 2004)
Bogside
I certainly don’t think it’s ok for anyone to open an exchange but IMO Ian is NOT just anyone – as I’m sure nearly everyone on here will agree ! :biggrin:
Hope we have some good discussions on here in the future.
I’d just like to add a few comments to this thread.
I’m a full time professional trader / punter and I DO have an account with BackAndLay as well as a much larger one Betfair. There might not be much liquidity on BackAndLay but it seems to be picking up especially on football and to a lesser extent on special bets, and I’m 100% confident that my money is safe with them, as I am with Betfair. I’ve just estimated that I turnover less than 0.005% of my bets with BackAndLay but that will certainly increase as liquidity picks up and I honestly applaud Ian for running the only 1% comission exchange around.
Anyone who bets on football or special bets is mad NOT to have an account IMVHO.
