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The Bookmakers are a Business Ginger, they are gambling with every horse in the race not just a selective opinion like your’s hence the odds provide a framework for internal stability so that the company can turn over a profit in the long run which is in fact what they do.
You’re using percentages to select a horses which is nonsense, if someone come in with £2,000 on your book for the favourite what would your value bet be then? you’d probably have a different value you bet for every 30 minutes of the day.
I appreciate what you’re trying to do but there is no validity behind your process and in truth you could be using a pin for the same effect.
A horse can’t run faster because he’s got 2.25% in hand on the field, he can’t improve his conditions either.
There’s no legitimate validity with what you’re doing, it’s just like psychologists are scrutinized in claiming to be a natural science when there’s no reliable construct of interval data that can measure behaviour, physiology and cognitive processes for example, like you could do with time, weights, energy and so on.
It’s just like the Likert Scale, there’s no definite measurement that can specifically tell us the difference between strongly agree and strongly disagree is there? Pretty much like your associate of trying to use a formbook to quantify a selection when every horses formbook is different it makes your process absolute worthless.
I’d like to see the internal consistency of your selections because I’d put my bottom dollar on every horses you’ve given a 25% chance of winning will have different factors associate with them and can you reliably tell me that the formbook between a 25% chance and a 28% chance have any valid categories or items?
To be honest you’re living in a dream land sorry.In your dreams, appropriately.
Just shows how far away you are from the epicenter of quality racing information.
You can pretty much write off any Classic contender as off two o’clock tomorrow, might even have a 1000 Guineas winner on show as well.
Olympic Glory won’t win a race next year and Wentworth will struggle after May, Montiridge on the other hand..
But deserves credit for finding Dawn Approach.
Probably the funniest thing I’ve heard on here in some time, does he actually believe he found Dawn Approach?
I can imagine him travelling over to Coolcullen on a windy day in his camouflage outfit accompanied by a pair of binoculars as he peaks threw a thorn bush outside the yard"I see something, I see a flashy chestnut with a white face" as TAPK proceeds in pulling out his iPad desperately searching a way to connect to the Bolger WIFI he finally lands in by chance to tell us all he might have found a superstar.
With dawn approaching times running out for Gordon in his attempt to come back to the British shores with a special bet for us all as the glaring lights of a truck turn into the yard with Gordon ducking the searchlight rays that sweep across his position, a close shave one might say.
Saturated to the bone lying on the grass for hours in an attempt to find the next big thing by chance a piece of paper mysteriously zig zags across the thick morning air landing right on top of the bush when he hears footsteps, they’re getting closer, Gordon proceeds to look through the bush when he sees a yard worker casually walking over under orders to not lose that paper, it’s the moment of truth, time to be a hero with seconds to spare he reaches up cat like agility and snatches the paper as he grabs for his back which has served many building sites in the past has just provided one last giant leap for mankind allowing Gordon to shuffle across the grass and get out of Coolcullen.
We may never know what the paper has on it, all we know is Gordon saw a chestnut horse with a white face, it could have been a seller, 85 rated boat but we must saviour his efforts for providing us a horse no one could have expected to be this good, a horse no one wrote in their notebooks after The Coventry and a horse who is still criminally under rated.
But if you want "some (truthful) stick"…
You’re jealous. Maybe it’s because you haven’t had a winner on this thread since May!
80 pages of your "blow your own" thread without a win! Hope Cristo gets you off the cold list mate. What is it now? 40 bets without a winner! Just 2 winners in 91 pages. Two winners at 11/2 and 6/1 at a strike rate of around 3%. Have I made a mistake in my calculations Gord? I make it £13,280 staked (without counting ane-post wagers still to run) Return £7231.25 for a
HOLY MACCARONI! I think the TAPK has just been dethroned.
Great work Ginge, it reminds me of Gordon Banks trying to use his one moment of magic against Brazil to use as an excuse for getting into Manchester United’s first team line up today.
I am shocked at those statistics, even worse than I thought, Don’t let Darren find out he might just be disappointed that his hero is not all he’s cracked up to be.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S94nji2D … re=related
You know why he was gelded now.
What a lovely horse!
Pretty poor card for me at Kempton yesterday.
65.97
Hardy Blue
80.27
Spartan Spirit
76.91
Living The Life
82.74
Steelriver
84.01
Alraased
77.63
Tamarkuz
84.12
Beat Route
78.30
Blue Deer
The only standout from the card would be STEELRIVER who has run to around a mark of
84
, was the card riding fast? probably a little but no more than usual really.
Today’s meeting different story.
98.69
Volcanic Wind
79.37
Ferjaan
74.58
Exactement
73.25
Lea Valley Black
79.50
Snowboarder
81.54
Belgian Bill
91.95
Wildomar
70.39
Squad
Probably exposed myself a lovely three year old here to the masses, run to around
95
and WILDOMAR also very useful.
The biggest killer is the time delay between realizing the disease and the start of the treatment which is actually the biggest worry because of the complex nature that comes with Colic in regards to finding the right diagnostic and the potential infections.
Hope he can make it, very stressing for all concerned a 25/7 job with 110% care and commitment.
Alan Brazil has tried profusely to get Horse Racing some activity on Talksport which is mainly a Football oriented station but this is a great move.
Being an Arsenal fan I think AP McCoy is going to have his work cut out with Adrian Durham whose provocation of Arsenal fans on a daily basis is quite unprofessional and tiresome.
Can we all not just get along together here? I mean we’ve all had to put up with TAPK for years lets not have another couple of troublemakers.
Would I eat yogurt with a fork? no because I would get the most out of my cartoon using a spoon.
Surely getting the best out of your horse is paramount hence Frankel has been campaigned perfectly, he’s always performed at his best we can see that.
I think Aiden O’Brien was trying to eat his yogurt with his nose this year regarding Camelot and the comment to me was rather sour.
Those that say it has been a safe campaign only want the horse to falter so in 10-15 years they can say he "lost this" it means he wasn’t really a "stayer" when the comparison comes with another great in the future.
At the minute we have absolute perfection, Henry Cecil has left a golden tint of what could have been and a question that will burn in the night forever long past our lifetimes but did he need to stay a mile and half? if he did, we’d all question if the horse could go further and it would never end until he was beaten.
The fact that Sir Henry has remained in total control throughout the horses career has to be one of the greatest stories in Horse Racing, every day must of been a pleasure getting up with that horse in your yard but the devilish temptation to try and do something outlandish to "break new ground" knowing you could probably have a fair crack at it with the animal must of been hard.
We’ve had horses win over all sorts of trips, we’ve had all sorts of horses breaking track achievements but we’ve never had a FRANKEL!, that’s testament to Sir Henry who hasn’t changed the image or the persona of the horse he’s kept him as he was, the horse goes out there and races as FRANKEL every time with a mind blowing sense of ambition, will to please and a consistency we’ve never seen before and he’s never lost Frankel at any stage of his career which could have been such an easy thing to do.
The story will never end, his probable immortality on a racecourse will leave many squandering in dispare trying to find answers as to why he wasn’t tested further but the truth of the matter is we’ve lived in the Frankel era, every racing fan has turned up to see Frankel because of who the horse is, we never complained he was running over a mile, we never complained he was running over 7 or 10 furlongs which pays enormous credit to the connections who has brought a country closer together with the sport of horse racing in enlightening those who wanted to come and see brilliance, who wanted to come and be apart of a unique social gathering in that togetherness was rife behind a horse who turned the very best opposition of his era into mere bystanders.
80 pages of your "blow your own" thread without a win! 
Have I made a mistake in my calculations Gord? I make it £13,280 staked (without counting ane-post wagers still to run) Return £7231.25 for a