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Today proved nothing could beat him or nothing would ever beat him, he is unbeatable and there has or never will be anything that could step onto the same field as him and give him a horse race.
Lost for words, his body needs to be preserved in 30+ years time and put in the Newmarket Museum because of how he’s about 100-200 years ahead of the breed it’s got the country lost for words.
OPINION POLL (3/1)
SOCIETY ROCK (3/1)
CARLTON HOUSE (10/1)
HIGHLAND COLORI (10/1)£50 WIN on all…
So I’ve just had a quick nap before starting the glorious Saturday of Racing + Football and wanted to catch up a little bit on some off the All Weather meetings in the past week in which I may have come across a decisive bit of form.
Wolverhampton (13.10.12)
79.40
Amethyst Dawn
73.28
Ouzinkie
77.69
Kathleensluckylad
83.83
The Obvious Choice
78.17
Lulla
79.98
Critical Point
Variance:
2.26 (Standard)
Last Saturday I am interested in the winner of the second division Nursery
THE OBVIOUS CHOICE
trained by Stuart Williams and ridden by Harry Bentley "
Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, led and edged left well inside final furlong, ran on (op 12-1 tchd 14-1)"
The card was pretty average in terms of speed ratings with the range between
75.29 & 82.17
but this horse falls outside that with
83.83
so the indications are it’s a fast run race which the adjusted times show.
To make sure we can rely on this time I’ve used two standard deviations of the par performance so I’m 95% confident that the sample is situated between
-9.96 and +9.96
which is the case; Highest par performer: (The Obvious Choice) +6.19 lengths & Lowest par performer: (Lulla) -8.89 lengths.
More about the winner who has run
15-lbs
better than his mark on the bare clock indicating a
0-80 Benchmark
which you could assume to be higher but the intervals over 7f at Wolverhampton become quite challenging the further you go up in class, whilst we can’t improve on amount in hand given the margin of victory was just a head.
With the help of The Racing Post system rater we can add the 15lbs to his mark of 63 which equals 78 just below our initial assessment of the 0-80 bracket which is a positive sign.
Then using the 2.7lb/length scale for this distance we get the following; (Predicted Mark) – (Current Mark)
78/68
The Obvious Choice 11/1
72/62
Glossy Posse 14/1
75/63
Majestic Jess (IRE) 12/1
59/56
Red Eclipse (IRE) 20/1
79/71
Sennockian Star 5/4F
70/65
Summer Isles 50/1
65/64
Skidby Mill (IRE) 25/1
72/73
This Is Nice (IRE) 9/2
69/72
Ighraa (IRE) 12/1
68/70
Royal Steps (IRE) 14/1
50/68
Admirals Walk (IRE) 16/1
32/52
Baltic Prince (IRE) 20/1
You can go down as far as Summer Isles to find horses who could be starting to find an easier mark whilst the rest will surely drop a lb or two, I’ve updated for the new adjusted marks and the Handicapper has put down
Majestic Jess from 67 to 63!
which is quite a surprise although I would make sure you back some of these in either the same grade or much lower apart from the winner or the runner up say.
The Sir Mark Prescott horse skipped my attention really,
NEIGE D’ANTAN
who has similarly run 5 lbs quicker on the bare clock resulting in 0.28s bringing him to the
0-75 benchmark
which we then include the 3.75l victory which brings us to a total of
12lbs
.
With the help of The Racing Post system rater we can add the 12lbs to his mark of 55 which equals 67, Then using the 1.8lb/length scale for this distance we get the following; (Predicted Mark) – (Current Mark)
67/55
Neige D’Antan 11/10F
60/53
Taro Tywod (IRE) 9/1
54/55
Essell 13/2
50/55
Neil’s Pride 5/1
43/55
Crucis Abbey (IRE) 33/1
42/47
Bubbly Bounty 28/1
38/47
Lady Intrigue (IRE) 40/1
36/39
Lady Author 80/1
31/49
First Glance 7/1
28/52
Variety Show (IRE) 16/1
21/43
Leonards Pride (IRE) 66/1
0/48
Naturalmente (IRE) 20/1
With the nature behind the stereotypical Sir Mark Prescott horses we might find that there’s more value behind
TARO TYWOD
next time out especially if the handicapper drops him there must be a great chance of securing a win given this was a 0-55 he’s run to a mark of 60 and currently resides off 53.
Any thoughts from last night gentlemen?
Wolverhampton (19.10.12)
83.02
Above Standard
71.65
Work Ethic
75.69
Justbookie Dot Com
80.52
Neige D’Antan
75.62
El Mirage
77.03
Shaunaus Spirit
Variance:
2.52 (Standard)
The standout runner from the card is
ABOVE STANDARD
who clocked a figure of
83.02
which is nearly 1 1/2 standard deviations above the mean but certainly figures outside the upper range off
81.27
, did any of you catch the race? it has to have been run at a brisk pace.
The bare clock suggests he’s run 5lbs better than his mark elevating him to just below the
0-90 benchmark
when converted into seconds on my standard scales (0.02 Milliseconds to be precise) and that doesn’t account for the 4 length beating off Ginger Ted equating to 12.8lbs over 6f which accumulates to 17.8lbs.
With the help of The Racing Post system rater we can add the 18lbs to his mark of
64
which equals
82
just below our initial assessment of the 0-90 bracket which is a positive sign.
Then using the 3.2lb/length scale for this distance we get the following; (Predicted Mark) – (Current Mark)
82
/
64
Above Standard (IRE) 7/4F
69
/
64
Ginger Ted (IRE) 100/30
64
/
63
Dark Lane 4/1
62
/
63
Powerful Pierre 9/1
49
/
65
Silkee Supreme 16/1
48
/
65
Choice Words (USA) 66/1
46
/
64
Man Of My Word 40/1
44
/
65
Mister Mackenzie 7/1
38
/
65
Volcanic Dust (IRE) 33/1
32
/
64
Chester’Slittlegem (IRE) 33/1
I think it’s fair to say that ABOVE STANDARD will notch up a hat trick in the near future.
I think most of us would agree that Matt Chapman would be a good drinking partner on a night out, imagine what he’s like when drunk? would be a laugh I reckon.
Great, here we go again with every winner being bout of the Nicholls or Henderson yard every day of the week at 5/4 or shorter and nothing trying until Cheltenham.
Don’t get me started over the Irish Sea where the Novices fail to raise a walk for 3/4 of the race, oh and how the All Weather season saves the fixture list during the winter every year.
I’ve already sent a hand written letter to Juddmonte Farms Ltd about a mare I hold in deep regards and how she would be a lovely fit for the prospective likes of Galileo & Frankel.
Her name, SCUFFLE.
Superb broodmare in the making.
Any thoughts from tonight’s action guys?
75.80
Pastoral Jet
83.15
Birdlover
74.59
Cappadocia
84.98
Arch Villain
85.53
Castillo Del Diablo
82.42
Glaisdale
The standout for me is
BIRDLOVER
who has run 0.68s quicker than his standard elevating him to around the
0-85 level
whilst showing around an
11 lbs
improvement but it’s hard to gauge where to set a mark for today and it could be a case of waiting until the handicapper has his say.
Agreed Miss Woodford.
What does everyone feel Frankel is going to give to his progeny and on what mares or sire lines would you use him?
True, I think people will be buying into the unknown with Frankel as many of us don’t really know what makes him so good, yes he has a giant stride but many have had that before him and he’s far from the eye catching conformation that so many great stallions have preceded before but it’s that unanswerable question of what lies within the mentality that gives such a spirited animal a domination of his kind and if that trait is transferable then the breed could easily be improved into another dimension.
One interesting thing here
BB has a range of 60 between his highest and lowest ratings
I have the same two horses but a range of 92
UnoHugh only has a range of 14 between his top and bottom rated
Blimey…………..
One thing I have noticed comparing my and BB’s figures over the last few months is that my scale tends to stretch out the figures compared to BB………my higher rated tend to be higher, my lower rated ones tend to be lower and the ones in the middle are about the same.
I think maybe that’s because I convert all race distances to 8F and use a standard 3lb per length whereas BB has a different LB/length depending on trip…………I’m not sure of the mathematics of it but my feeling is that the result of those different methods is to stretch out my ratings to make up for my race distances not being stretched out !
Slowly Away, there’s no "definite" guide on how to become a recognized speed handicapper but the main concern is you understand the right principles and have the ground work in place to start projecting your ratings in which you seem to have.
Now, there’s nothing wrong with having a 60 difference or a 14 difference between top and bottom as long as your scale is interpretable on a ratio basis whereby it can be a universal measurement and has meaning between intervals.
How good do you guys have Sir Michael Stoute’s
Fleur De Cactus
when she won at Lingfield? personally I have it a large rating that has worked out well.
She’s a daughter of Montjeu who’s had just the three runs in which the handicapper has given her a mark of 85 but my question to you two is where will we see her next? there’s no doubt she’s better than 85 but with the season coming to an end will she be eclipsed and forgotten about next year with the influx of three year olds where we could get a lovely price about her?
No questions about it Ian the horse has eclipsed everything before him and is probably the ultimate thoroughbred breeders will ever see.
The Blues Brother & Slowly Away, I love it when you two post as you’re the only people I can really understand on here that have legitimate and scientific reasoning behind their opinions.
Lingfield Yesterday
80
– Pira Palace
77
– Close Together
79
– Al Aqabah
85
– Correspondant
91
– Dr Yes
82
– Marmas
81
– Schoolmaster
82
– L’Hirondlle
Variance 1.94 = Slow
Dr Yes
91
– Lingfield
93
– Bath
102
– Lingfield
84
– Newmarket
67
– Newmarket
89
– Sandown
Ginger, so in your own mind have you backed a 12/1, 13/2, 11/2 winner or do you embrace the reality that you have backed a 7/4 winner?
To be fair to Ginger here Pricewise does the same sort of thing with his ante-post portfolio but the RP still advertise the "winning price"
Mr U,
I shouldn’t bite but…….
A day at the races with friends CAN be more enjoyable than financial gain. You ever experienced that?
Sure, I only go to the racecourse for the beer these days as I’m not really a betting man anymore and the last thing I want to do is support bookmakers who I have strong opinions about.
