[louisthemush]

Be careful I believe Seagull’s
old fella has switched to this one,
and is very likely to trip up
any competition.

what do you mean with that mate?

[louisthemush]

Spiritual Star as been supplemented for the DEWHURST TOMORROW for £20000 but if he runs within the 1st 4 he recoupes the outlay

% M

how did spiritual star do this day, can you remember? %man. its been some time since on here busy busy busy..

[louisthemush]

wow thanks for the insight kick kick, but do you mean that you back all jockeys level in that meet that have 2 rides or more? and this produces every month level stakes? i was trying to work from the jock who had a race in the first or second races or 2 jocks who had then the space in the rest of the day to mount other horses…

i did see one race however that i wouldve missed being jock won first and 2nd then jock came along won the third and forth, but not many like this..

but if you say back em all id be happy trusting this and maybe can stake it to doubles and trebles permed through jocks that have 3 or more rides..

look forward to hearing this answer..

but im sure its all arranged in the morning between trainers and bet big enough on these doubles themselves and hardly see it as coincidence or a energy passing although im not totally dismissing it, guess its just like people with the energy in the room and when all horses have the happy virus in the stable they dont half improve..

[louisthemush]

Hi all

I have been trying to find a horse race statatition of late with no reward, and would love to be put in touch with anyone as i believe i have found something very interesting in the way of selection..

but first i want to concentrate on this one. Jockeys almost every meeting everyday are havingwinning doubles, usually but not always for the same trainers, as i saw yesterday 2 trainers had doubles with different jocks on…

so im looking to record this for a while.

This way of selection doesnt seem too costly as you would take the winning jock of the first second or 3rd race and back those jocks again when they get on a mount further down the card, it, to me seems as good a selection method as any as there are many big prices to be had this way, where you wouldnt normally find on a daily basis..maybe a little staking plan has to be had but as these jocks dont seem to mount until they are going for their same win,( to be investigated) then it seems a very plausible way of finding winners.

i was looking of taking the first 2 jocks of the first 2 races but then yesterday the jockey of the 3rd race in on 2 seperate cards then did his double, and not many hit their first race on the 4th or after..

just a thought.

Their was a system from years ago were you followed the winning jock in the 1st with the rest of his or her mounts from the same meeting WHETHER THIS WAS PROFITABLE on a DAILY BASIS I very much doubt IT.
After saying that it maybe poss at the better meetings but if you look at ROYAL ASCOT I dont think you would have done that well but at least R MOORE did say wait till my mounts on Saturday and BINGO he did well.

In my mind I think you maybe better folowing a trainer like SATURDAY at R A were OBRIAN had 2 5/2 and 4/6 and FANSHAW 25/1 and 15/2 but you have missed the 1st anyway whether JOCK OR TRAINER is being followed.

Wish you well and will be interested to see what happens

T%M

Ps Ive worked with stats for many years and I maybe able to help depending on what you have found and if related to STATS that can be worked with

ok well thanks for your response % man

yes i like the sound of trainers in form also as they can have different jocks mounting but also the other way i see the same jocks having wins for different trainers so maybe a phone call all around the yards in a morning and this is arranged, i dont know how important this is or how much money is involved but im sure it happens more often than not, same as ive seen two many times a horse perpousfully placed 2nd behind a hot favourite etc, i cant remember the horse id backed the other day but this jock had a double hand full and let go of the push twice and all he had to do was coax him to win but hed rather of come 2nd..

im still adamant that the joint favourite thing is something special, backing both joint favs on a win with a staking recoup plan on inbetween losses, but not sure wheather best is to increase per line on the 2 horses or to increase both horses after a joint fav loss.. i will look into it at a later date..and speak to you soon.

by the way. do you have any kinda stats for which trainers are in form right now to best maybe have 2 or 3 lines running on these winning trainers? i see one or 2 not so well known ones having a few sly big priced winners latey..

cheers and good luck.

[louisthemush]

hi froddo, sorry i meant the gamble/steamer went down before the off, what i call the live, 5 minutes before the race.. which often it seems is regularly a bluff to put people lemmings on the wrong horse when usually there is a dark horse, tryer in that same race..

i maybe used a bad example on this one but have spotted 3 today where i saw the true gamble of the race which is indicated with the difference of the forecast price from the racing post to the odds shown in the opening live markets..

but also like the fake money or whatever causes a steamer there is always a bluff horse sent this way too..however at the odds and regular wins these bluff horses can easily be absorbed..

i do like the way the market tells a true story when you can read it and often wonder why the bookmakers even play the odds like this? surely it isnt beneficial to them.. i seem to have cracked some kind of code here…

ok can someone tell me this then if any of you have noticed.. some days in the markets, you may have one 2 maybe 3 at most of odds changes, i.e 7/1 8/1 9/1

other days you will have like every horse in that market travelling say 6 moves, which i find that these are the days where im scuppered.. but i do find the resting off odds are fine in telling me the same story as other days…however they are significantly openening very different to the forecast prices and very hard to read. and wonder if the bookie can do this some days to scupper my system of reading them so well then why dont they do it every day?

good job i know when they do it so i can save myself, but want to know why they do it. are they trying to give me the lollypop then take it back?..

[louisthemush]

thanks for that gingertipster, and you have shed much light on things i didnt know like the change of overound …

if the forecast is prepared by the spotlight guy then why is is the bookmakers always open their books according to his forecast and not say the suns forecast which can be vastly different? i have been looking for ages how to work out this overound but can’t find any information on it..

i know what your saying about the horse in question, if connections got on it early why would the bookmakers offer 33/1 about a 10/1 horse.

maybe the connections took an early chunk of money on the outsider and the bookmakers decided to throw money at his other one knowing what the plot was so to have the nation back the other horse then they cut their liability and make more for themselves this way?

all i know is it happens on a regular basis when a certain thing happens in the market there is always this market reaction, its hard to explain but i can gather evidence..its there in black and white..it does pull in enough winners and tryers though so i wonder if there is something more to be uncovered..

racing wouldnt be racing without these plots, its only part of the game i understand that all part of the fun..

scott.

[louisthemush]

Terrfic existential post, thank you. As regards the high-volume ‘propaganda’ in betting shops, you could try an independent or regional mini-chain rather than the Big Boys, which I agree are dreadful places. Your observations on ‘fancied’ horse is helpful, too. I’ve been thinking along the same lines and wondering ‘is it just me?’

Thanks again.

hahaha ok joe ya very welcome welcome….if i use the independants its worse i get the local town crier doing the commentators jobs hahaha

but seriously its not just you i hope more will feedback because its quite a powerful knowledge of anti fire against their dark and devious tactis…I havnt the statistics with me for such as how many coral enhanced odds (but id love to know if anyone knows) that dont even try to win..however i found myself always saying why didnt i back that when one in say 30 at maybe evens wins lol
i got into the routine of being devils advocate for a reason when i suddenly saw a regularity of a certain move in the market winnig but only when the same pattern arised with an equal and opposite reaction in the both opening odds and live betting market of all the other horses around the dark plot gamble..

i said to myself right, who knows more than anyone which horse/horses will try in the race…ping, the bookie of course. reading the odds tells a story from what the bookie knows or doesnt know 5 mins before the off, and if he doesnt know 5 mins before i feel he does 1 min before, well im confident enough to make a tipping site anyway to go against the best of them..and i hardly know how to read form, i cant even read the speed figures. yet can get at least 50% strike on my e/w when i dont try to be clever and try to select every race hahaha….

i feel sorry for the people that feed the industry with their pensions and how many guys i here say thats gambled there, when its simply false money down..but they can’t see it.

however i guess its fair game as someone has to put the money in for the pros to take it out, saying that i am no pro as yet, i am still bound by things like greed and have wiped myself out before. but that under control and im fit to go..

ive also noticed that nearly every day and every meeting, doubles and trebles are landed by jockeys, bar a crystal ball i simply go through the card and see which jocks are riding maybe 3 races, the double up jock usually has to win the first or second race, but then of course by the time hes been discovered he has only chance of the one winner or maybe 2 (bar dittoris 7)lol to strike again. how many times does the horse that the first or second winning jock wins on get dramatically cut pre opening show..

saturdays is the hardest day always, il open a thread on a forgotton potent system in systems that i have up on you tube, it takes the fun away from racing but makes more points profit in a day than anyone can in maybe a year lol…

scott

[louisthemush]

yes il have a quick analysis myself,
please note the winner comes from out of the first 3 in the betting forecast around 90% of the time and the 3rd 4th 5th named rp forecast around 70% of the time…as it did in the national..any market move will be shown 5 minutes before the off in the live opening show only…

it annoys me when i have a feeling of intuition pulling against a mathematical selection only to find that the winner was a note to myself a week ago at the back of my mind hahaha..

all good fun.

[louisthemush]

Hi shabbs6

your asking the holy grail of racing eh my friend, i wish i knew who held the carpenters cup too, i find personally it can be a real pain in the butt looking too deep into racing statistics to keep my happy love racing balance to doing my math exam under pressure again.
so i would say its personal choice in what way you capture your winning horse..i was originally form trained by simon holt, using his rules a 40% strike rate could be achieved sometimes. he would teach things that had borderlines and to keep within those borderlines like can the horse do the distance, likes the ground, and signs of it being at its fittest like does the trainer put him in a race on a regular basis or has he entered him early for some reason…

i personally use only the markets, and this has been the basis of study for my personal tipping site and works well. however this has become very difficult especially when the bookmakers play around with the odds so much and flip the market upside down now and again…
i find i dont have to look so deeply into a horses statistics this way and find it much more enjoyable, i find many winners simply by seeing when a horse is improving and its form reads say 096 would be in the right direction..
all these things like jockey change, draw, etc etc etc are interesting to me and i do take notice much, like the system at the moment what im studying that shows me nearly every race meeting everyday doubles and trebles are landed, usually by the jockey and sometimes the jockey same trainer..

it is and has always been my theory that the bookmaker knows most information about a plot horse or 2 maybe 3 horses trying to win the same race and i can guarantee you it is refected in the odds, its just knowing how to read them and im not sure most people in racing get it, which is a shame as your going to do a job without the nescessary tools..

interesting forum, i will try shed more light later when i have time.

scott.

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