mathematical race analysis of a possible fixed race today

[louisthemush]

hi guys, just after watching todays race in the 2:35 at cork on at the races i noticed a possible set up job which was well pulled off..anyway my opinion is that the bookmaker already knew about this plot before the live gamble came for it..

here is the racing post forecast for it.

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ballroom, 7/2 Sparkling View, 9/2 Dazzling Dream, 5/1 Fountain Of Honour, 10/1 Sapphire Pendant, 12/1 Azores, 14/1 Hasty Harriet, 14/1 Nomadic Diamond, 16/1 Cape Of Good Grace, 16/1 Jet To Rio, 20/1 Seavelvet, 66/1 Killarney Time, 66/1 Strut In Style, 66/1 Style Majic, 100/1 Cross Of Canteen, 100/1 Yes Mam.

now the live betting

live betting

13 Sparkling View (IRE) 13-8 7-4 2 9-4 5-2

1 Azores (IRE) 7 6 5 9-2 4 7-2

2 Ballroom (IRE) 4 7-2 4

5 Dazzling Dream (IRE) 9-2 4

6 Fountain Of Honour (IRE) 13-2 7 13-2

3 Cape Of Good Grace (IRE) 14

7 Hasty Harriet (IRE) 16 20

11 Sapphire Pendant (IRE) 33

12 Seavelvet (IRE) 33

4 Cross Of Canteen (IRE) 100 80 66

8 Jet To Rio (IRE) 66

15 Style Majic (USA) 66

14 Strut In Style (IRE) 66

9 Killarney Time (IRE) 66

16 Yes Mam (IRE) 80 66

10 Nomadic Diamond (IRE) 66

sorry i havnt time to re-arrange from the copy and paste job direct from the sporting life..

ok so as you can see late heavy gamble on course for the david watchman horse azores 10 to 1 into 7/2 live…how many of these land i’d love to know, i do know that many dont land the gamble that open up in price above the original forecast price unless the original gamble has been withdrawn or the fav withdrawn..

ok so in the actual race we see the jockey on saphire pendant, seamie heffenen in the last 200 yards pull his mount wide and really very vigorously row as if he knows the horse has something left to give, very strange given that if the stable had a reverse forecast say on the 2 horses of theres which were fighting it out then maybe the rowing was a bit too much of an attention grapper to the public.

this topic is not to question any race fixing it is just simply to prove that the race was fixed hahaha. if we had a mathematician in the room we would see that because the bookmaker has to keep his book and overround percentage after all the playing around with this perticular market.. i dont know what the overound figures were, but i do know that 2 horses were clipped in dramatically to their forecast price and 2 counteracting prices were opened at a whole lot more than their forecast price..

the 10 to one steam in to 7/2 was already planned before the race odds opened up, so that lawfully the bookmaker keeps his say 110% word on his percentage..or something like this…anyway guys have a look at this odds phenomenon and give me some feedback please…

[Gingertipster]

Louisthemush,

I think you should learn to calculate over-rounds before you come to any conclusions.

If your first show is correct, according to my calculations bookmakers were working to 130.2%.
At SP they were working to 131.9%.
So there is little difference, roughly for every horse that shortened, something else lengthened, just so happened in this case one or two were big shorteners and the others mostly small lengtheners.

But why shouldn’t there be a big gamble from time to time? In maidens you can bet your last pound, that connections of something or another will think their horse has improved since its last run. And because they are maidens, they are in themselves weak betting races, with less money wagered on them than a handicap or better quality conditions races. With so little money wagered, it does not need much money (compared to a better quality / more competitive race) to see a price (or two) tumble. Because a bigger percentage of money in the the bookies satchel, will be for these one or two horses.

It is further complicated by your Racing Post betting forecast, which (to my reckoning) is working to 141.2%. Roughly 10% bigger over-round than actually happened. So even if this forecast is accurate, it will be quite a bit different to the offered prices; because of the difference in over-round.
And who is to say this betting forecast is accurate anyway? These are provided by the Spotlight writer (one mans opinion), who does not have that much time to form an accurate guide. So may be quite a bit out in his judgement. Especially as he’s working on a maiden. A type of race notoriously difficult to get right, with little form to go on.

No skulduggery, just connections believing their horse has improved since its last run / better than the original market indicates.

If the "bookmakers knew about this plot already before the live gamble came for it", why didn’t they have the horse priced up even shorter? So as to foil the proposed gamble.

Value Is Everything

[louisthemush]

thanks for that gingertipster, and you have shed much light on things i didnt know like the change of overound …

if the forecast is prepared by the spotlight guy then why is is the bookmakers always open their books according to his forecast and not say the suns forecast which can be vastly different? i have been looking for ages how to work out this overound but can’t find any information on it..

i know what your saying about the horse in question, if connections got on it early why would the bookmakers offer 33/1 about a 10/1 horse.

maybe the connections took an early chunk of money on the outsider and the bookmakers decided to throw money at his other one knowing what the plot was so to have the nation back the other horse then they cut their liability and make more for themselves this way?

all i know is it happens on a regular basis when a certain thing happens in the market there is always this market reaction, its hard to explain but i can gather evidence..its there in black and white..it does pull in enough winners and tryers though so i wonder if there is something more to be uncovered..

racing wouldnt be racing without these plots, its only part of the game i understand that all part of the fun..

scott.

[Gingertipster]

:D thanks for that gingertipster, and you have shed much light on things i didnt know like the change of overound …

if the forecast is prepared by the spotlight guy then why is is the bookmakers always open their books according to his forecast and not say the suns forecast which can be vastly different? i have been looking for ages how to work out this overound but can’t find any information on it..

Louisthemush,
Bookmakers don’t open up with the Spotlight forecast, Spotlight writers do a great job, but it is only a guide, not accurate enough. On course bookies take their odds from what has happened earlier on in the day with off course bookmakers or Betfair.
I believe, for Early Prices, most off course bookmakers use "Peter Martins", a bloke / firm who work out odds for bookmakers to open up with (although probably not Irish racing). Then each off course bookie have an odds compiler/s who look at those odds and tweak them, so we get different odds with one bookie to another.

To calculate the over-round you have to know what every price is in percentage terms. At level stakes: A punter needs to win 50% of his bets at Even money to break even. 25% for 3/1, 11.7% 15/2, 5.9% 16/1, 4.3% 22/1, 1% 100/1 etc.

For decimals (like Tote prices) just divide 1 by the figure. So 3/1 = decimal of 4.0, so 1 ‘/, 4 = 0.25 = 25%.
If like me you are used to bookies odds:
First figure + second figure = resultant figure.
Second figure ‘/, resultant figure = decimal
X decimal by 100 to make the percentage
eg
3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4
1 ‘/, 4 = 0.25
0.25 X 100 = 25
3/1 = 25%

So if you add all the price percentages up in a race, you come to the over-round. Or rather the amount above 100% is the over-round. If a bookie worked to 100% it would be possible to break even by backing every horse in the race. If they worked below 100% you could back all runners and make a profit.

You will find for maidens bookies work to a far greater over-round, can’t blame them, as they are races with little form to go on and difficult to work out.

For more information on over-rounds / how to use percentages in betting Louis, google "Table Of Odds And Chances".

A punter should know the table off by heart.

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

You say the heavy gamble took place during

live

?
Maybe that’s because the horse broke well and for no other reason.

Heavy gambling is generally an indication of something going on – foul play or no foul play.
But whereas in the tote it normally takes place very

late

during the betting stage of the race, in fixed odds it should happen

early

. Should n’t it ? Correct me if I ‘m wrong.

It’s not the holy grail because there is also the herding effect (lemmings) and at the end of the day it matters more

who

places a bet much more than

how much

(if such knowledge can be had).

I did burn once a 3000 euro bet on behalf of a bookie.
I don’t remember why he wanted me to do that instead of doing it himself, but I remember it was on a 90 to 1 loser, who is still running. The entire row of cash desks burst into tears when I did that. The bookie did not want to accept the liability.

[louisthemush]

hi froddo, sorry i meant the gamble/steamer went down before the off, what i call the live, 5 minutes before the race.. which often it seems is regularly a bluff to put people lemmings on the wrong horse when usually there is a dark horse, tryer in that same race..

i maybe used a bad example on this one but have spotted 3 today where i saw the true gamble of the race which is indicated with the difference of the forecast price from the racing post to the odds shown in the opening live markets..

but also like the fake money or whatever causes a steamer there is always a bluff horse sent this way too..however at the odds and regular wins these bluff horses can easily be absorbed..

i do like the way the market tells a true story when you can read it and often wonder why the bookmakers even play the odds like this? surely it isnt beneficial to them.. i seem to have cracked some kind of code here…

ok can someone tell me this then if any of you have noticed.. some days in the markets, you may have one 2 maybe 3 at most of odds changes, i.e 7/1 8/1 9/1

other days you will have like every horse in that market travelling say 6 moves, which i find that these are the days where im scuppered.. but i do find the resting off odds are fine in telling me the same story as other days…however they are significantly openening very different to the forecast prices and very hard to read. and wonder if the bookie can do this some days to scupper my system of reading them so well then why dont they do it every day?

good job i know when they do it so i can save myself, but want to know why they do it. are they trying to give me the lollypop then take it back?..

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