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Machin’s worse at the festival, post-race. Every winner was given a ‘super ride’ and he always asks how relieving it must be to get ‘one on the board’, now they can ‘enjoy the festival’.
Come up with something new!
Genuinely stumped about this horse. If you take Fingal Bay out of the Sandown contest, and imagine he went straight to the Challow and won an idling length and add in what Simonsig did today, he’d (simonsig) probably be a 3/1 shot for the Neptune. Especially with Barbatos franking the form.
But Fingal Bay did take part, and won impressively. I don’t think Simonsig looked a non-stayer, and the distance back to the others hardly enhances that belief. Fingal Bay could be a freak of a horse that just needs constant company, but I don’t know.
I just can’t picture Simonsig kicking clear over two miles. Gut feeling.
Fortunately for us too much is made out of ‘getting up the hill’ and better value is to be had as a result. The Supreme is a race that comes early in the lives of these horses, and to judge their stamina purely based on that one race, in top class opposition when they are still on the weak side, is daft. Especially when these horses have still managed to make the frame.
At the prices however I don’t think anything sticks out as great value, none of the protagonists have met top class opposition and are all unbeaten. For Non Stop is totally unexposed over fences and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares next time out, I’m not sure he was flattered behind Al Ferof as many seem to think. Had he won the race by 15+ lengths he would be far more prominent in the antepost markets, but because Al Ferof was alongside, a neck better, he’s a huge price for both the Jewson and Arkle.
So in this thread, JJM, you’ve managed to back Grandouet at 14s (first mention), then 25s and 20s, and lastly 20s. Cringe-worthy reading, aftertimers. Moving on.
You’re being a bit unfair stilvi. No one is saying the form he produced on Saturday is worthy of winning a Champion Hurdle, but the point is he’s going in the right direction. I hate the whole enigma regarding the ‘Cheltenham Hill’. It’s a stiff finish alright but the ability of a horse to act on it is somewhat overplayed.
His first visit to Cheltenham saw him finish well behind Sam Winner, but well clear of the rest. Given how he fought for his head on UK debut, it was no surprise to see Barry hold him up and not get really serious with him. Henderson does the same with all novice/juvenile hurdlers that tend to pull hard and not finish their races. He beat the rest nicely and didn’t look a horse that plainly flattened out.
In the Triumph the race fell apart and Barry was left in front way too soon with nothing no cover and nothing to aim at, which the horse clearly needs, and is confirmed, by his subsequently exaggerated hold-up style. Also factor in that he’d just turned four, so there is plenty of room for improvement stamina wise. Remember Punjabi in the Triumph?
Tracked leaders, challenged going well from 3 out until slight lead soon after 2 out, headed well before last, weakened run-in
Ok, so he didn’t win a vintage CH, but he won it, and battled all the way up that hill in a strongly run race. I know he had another year on his back compared to G, but Grandouet has shown form that Punjabi couldn’t at 5.
You say Overturn doesn’t like the track, what’s that based on? One Champion Hurdle where he finished a respectable seventh after being hassled all the way round, in a race not run to suit him? He had the run of the race in the International, with Pittoni never posing a threat, and was beaten fair and square, albeit conceding weight. Brampour mightn’t be good enough, but Grandouet was on the bit approaching the last and got it wrong, but still won going away.
There is no race like the Champion so there’s never really one solid piece of form to go on. There was the doubts about Solwhit/1000 stars form last year and look what happened. I agree, if HF turns up, he wins, but your reasoning for dismissing Grandouet is a bit premature, imo.
I understand the concern, but there are big differences with Go Native and Grandouet and it’s not a fair comparison. Go Native was a speed/bridle horse through and through and used his speed to beat his rivals in the Fighting Fifth when there was absolutely no pace. He did the same at Kempton beating an underpar Binocular and Starluck a short head. He never extended all the way to the line and looked to have more to offer, other than in the fighting fifth but that was just farcical, take a look at how close the likes of Won in the Dark got.
We’ll see what happens but I agree, HF is still the one to beat. Maybe we’re making a mountain from a molehill regarding his set-back. Given his past, and the fact that he’s now proven around Prestbury Park, Mullins might just be happy to bide his time and aim him at Cheltenham and Punchestown.
He’s head and shoulders the best hurdler we’ve seen for a while.
Although you have to be pleased with that performance, I don’t think we should get carried away. Jackie’s Solitaire in third, has gained a bit of ground on Hinterland, and is rated 117. Hinterland had to make his own running as well, which may or may not be the best way to go with him. Could be another overrated horse just because of who trains him.
Baby Mix got the run of the race and used his speed to leave Hinterland for dead. The Triumph will be a completely different proposition and I think promoting him to favourite is just a bit silly.
The International played out exactly as I thought it would (posted on other thread) and Barry rode the absolute perfect race. One thing crucial to the horse imo, is a strong pace and tow into the race. I was hoping Barry would wait and not kick on because I don’t think he does much in front and he did exactly that. In the Triumph he was left in front too soon and had nothing to aim at. I don’t buy into the arguments that he just couldn’t see out the trip. Zarkandar backers will no doubt be excited but you can’t take that form at face value.
Even though I’ve backed him for the CH, he still needs to improve to win which he’s perfectly capable of doing.
What I can’t help thinking when I watch him though, is what a chaser he’d make. I know the plan was to go chasing after Punchestown. He doesn’t look a hurdler, and doesn’t jump like a hurdler. HF is the exact opposite, and he’s still clearly the biggest danger with Zark and Spirit Son yet to play their hands, and Binocular looking exposed.
Thanks Reet.
Regarding Sanctuaire, I think he’s that impossible to place/below top class horse that’ll run well in races like this but not well enough to make any impact. I think if he was going to step it up this year, he should’ve gone closer in the Greatwood off 150, especially with the way he settled. Was his first run of the season though, so you never know.
My personal view on handicaps is that they are far too black and white. It’s no surprise that every time Woolcombe Folly has raced at the top level, he’s spectacularly failed. Possibly able to excuse his Arkle run because there was an incident with Sam Thomas at Ditcheat, but he made no impact whatsoever in the Champion Chase last year and just looked outclassed. He won his handicap impressively but a handicap is a million miles away from a top race, and it wasn’t the most inspiring field in the world. He’s definitely never warranted being a 169 chaser, no matter how far he beat horse X in handicap Z. It’s not as simple as that, Poqulein is another great example. He just seemed outclassed lto. It probably wasn’t his absolute true running, but he bumped into a proven graded performer who’s best fresh.
Onto the race, I think Great Endeavour would stand a great chance of defying his weight rise if he’s recovered well. It’s a tough ask for any horse, but I think he’ll feature in grade one races for the rest of the year.
I’m very much with Grandouet but have a few doubts about his participation, which I’m worried about as I’ve backed him quite heavily (oops).
Grandouet for me, is clearly a horse that needs a proper tow into his race. He raced fairly prominently in the Triumph and has since been held up each time, and looked better every time. Barry clearly didn’t want to hit the front too soon when tracking Celestial Halo, and Tony took several pulls coming to the second last, and only went on when he couldn’t wait any longer. He was left in front in the Triumph when the leaders flattened out and I don’t think that suited him at all. I really hope Overturn lines up, because he’ll set a true pace and set the race up. I think he’ll have to be exceptional to win yet another top class race in such little time, and therefore couldn’t possibly back him, especially when I suspect he may have simply found out unfit rivals the last twice.
Brampour is likable but I just get the feeling the Greatwood wasn’t exceptional, even though he won like a good horse. Harry Derham is also a slight negative for me, and the odds don’t make much appeal. Menorah switching back to hurdles is strange, I don’t think it’s as straight-forward as saying the CH looks weak without HF (given the setback) and it’s up for grabs, I don’t think he’s good enough to be a Champion Hurdler on what he’s shown. I don’t like the fact this has come after unseating either, he may’ve lost confidence or not schooled well, and I don’t want to find out at the price.
Grandouet will certainly travel like the winner and go short in running, Brampour and Menorah take time to warm to the task and Overturn can often look beat when stalked by rivals, so I’ll probably attempt to trade out should he take his place. Obviously there is that slight worry that he may be best on a flat-track, but he’s young and would’ve no doubt strengthened up. I can’t see them going for the Xmas hurdle given they’d be taking on Zarkandar and stable-mate Binocular.
I have no doubt that Frankel is a ‘great’ horse, but
‘one of the greats’
is a little premature. Today’s form is full of negatives. RdlP being so close is a big one. Even Richard Hughes was saying it wasn’t CCs true running, and Hannon said he wants another crack at the winner.
If Frankel can win at York, i’ll step into line and salute
At the moment, STS was the better horse on form, and Frankel’s wins flatter him.Please. Every horse that has tried going with Frankel thus far has failed miserably, the ones that’ve got close have all been held up, last off the bridle bar Frankel. Native Khan, Dubawi Gold (who regressed hugely when trying to chase Frankel at Ascot), Zoffany, Excelebration. His wins don’t flatter him. He simply breaks the other horses. Canford for the first time today was taken off his feet. He couldn’t live with Frankel’s easy injection of pace. It is therefore no surprise that RDP got closer to him than at Ascot, when CC had matters under control. You also have to note that RDP, at Ascot, got himself into a challenging position unlike today.
Was Frankel even hit with the whip today? The ease of his win was most impressive and he fully deserves the endless superlatives.
Great idea, would love to take part.
Gold Cup: Kauto Star 5/1 nb Imperial Commander 9/2
Champion Hurdle: Binocular 5/1 nb Dunguib 20/1
Champion Chase: Woolcombe Folly 10/1 nb Master Minded 7/4
World Hurdle: Big Buck’s 4/5 nb Quevega 16/1
Arkle Chase: Ghizao 12/1 nb Medermit 16/1
RSA Chase: Time For Rupert 4/1 nb Wymott 16/1
Triumph Hurdle: Sam Winner 9/2 nb Brampour 14/1
Supreme Nov Hurdle: Cue Card 3/1 nb Dunraven Storm 33/1
Ryanair Chase: Punchestowns 16/1 nb Somersby 8/1
D Nicholson Hurdle: Voler La Vadette 5/1 nb Caroles Legacy 12/1
