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Does Midnight Prayer want to win this race if as stated that his main target is at Chepstow?
WaW gets nearly a stone off hte market leaders and appears friendless in the market so maybe he will make a gallant efort and fade to nothing I still underestimated reminds a little of Hunt Ball in his season – jumps well and can be a stone under his realistic weight – it’s Hunt Ball that makes me think WaW can take a hand. All the ones at the top of the market are worthy but I cant split them though I’d go Rocky, Smad Place for the front runners in the market at the prices,
Rocky has to be a more realistic winner and placer than Merry King who isn’t tricky in my eyes just simply not good enough (he’s probably a winner off around 136 max).
I hope WaWs price is due to the expected ground (can be closer to G/S than soft and the fact the Skeltons are still being underrated a little like DoM and Danny Tudhope) the one problem is if it is sift that 3M 2fs can stretch his stamina but he went away at Ludlow at 3m1f and was well clear of Merry King at Ascot over 3m. Not an obvious winner perhaps but likelier to place than many at 33-1 and can be a lay bet in running if getting to 2m6fs near the front.
I’d be very surprised if one of Rocky Creek or What a Warrior do not make the first five and at odds of 10-1 and 33-1 then a place will make a profit.
My two might not make the first five but at least one will beat Merry King. That horse has issues and this will not be a race he enjoys imho. I’ve backed him all races so I have a feeling about him and he is not up to this class.
But I think without statistics to back it up that generally a Coventy and Dewhurst winner is a more likely winner of a 2000?
It used to be the Dewhurst winner was the upper echelon – does that not stand because it was a weak renewal?
Here is a possible 1234
Kingman
Toormore
War Command
The Grey GatsbyI’m understood to believe that The Grey Gatsby can run a decent race and that be a pointer to Toormore who I am led to believe that he will also run a big race. The fav is favourite for a reason top rated with at this stage the likeliest winner – his odds of no interest though (7/4 best price with BF now). Perhaps the 3 behind him worthy of EW bets as a placed horse will cover the other 2 (to certain stakes – your option) a winner of course will come out with a profit.
A possible staking plan could be:
2pts EW Toormore – 8/1 1/4 – 6pt return place
1.5 pts EW War Command 9/1 1/4 4.875 pt return for place
.5 pts EW TGG – 100/1 1/5 – 10.5 pt return for placeClearly if none get placed a losing bet and a percentage loss if only one placed but there could be some interesting specials (PP money back on 2nd and 3rd placed horses etc). Might as well keep the powder dry now until the day unless you know/guess Kingsman does not run due to the ground. Going stick today at 14:00 is 7.6 so on the good side of g/f so unless it dries out significantly likely the fav will take his place but what if he feels that tendon maybe he won’t be in the three but stamina may not be his issue, a worthy fav but not without dangers.
Talent was 4/1 to back EW 1/4 odds – if she goes that again might be a bet to nothing?
Outside of Estimate then Ahzeemah looks the most likely winner as his form is very close to hers but he is 8-1 compared to 2/1 and can be backed EW 1/4 the odds.
Cant see Main Sequence doing anything – his best run was in a very poor Derby losing by was it 5Ls to a probably 120/121 Camelot – that puts Main Sequence at his best on c. 115 probably at least 7lbs off what is needed to win or even place in this race.
7/4 CDA now – bigger than I expected though it was obvious that the layers would look to lay him as his form this year is perhaps 7 or 8 lbs off what he achieved in this race last year. If he has regressed that much then he’ll probably get collared but if he has actually only lost 3-4lbs (this his target all year) then he can’t lose and 7-4 still a decent price – fascinating
My opinion is Maxios will prove better than OG in this race but that’s my opinion – this is the opinion of Ryan Moore:
A lot of people thought that Maxios stole the race when beating Olympic Glory by five lengths in the Moulin last time, but I don’t think that he did. I rode Gale Force Ten to finish fourth in that race and we simply couldn’t lay up with the front two. A 6f sprinter set the pace, and Maxios was the only one who was able to lie up with her, so I don’t think he was flattered at all. And I think a straight mile in a strongly-run race will suit him; he is a grinder and that will be what is needed here. I can see him going close to winning.
The Hannon camp think that blinkers have made a difference to their horse at home. If they have, then he obviously has to be respected as there is no doubting the merit of his short-head second to Moonlight Cloud in a very good Marois. My mount Gregorian disappointed in France a fortnight ago but he is a solid Group 2 horse at his best and he wouldn’t mind any more rain. But, in all honesty, you can’t really see him being good enough to win this.
I love OG as a horse but I’ve always been of the opinion he is a top G2 horse but might always just come under true G1 class and this race is a proper G1.
Well I don’t see the value of taking 5/1 OG when you can take the same price a horse who beat him easily/comfortably/irreversibly (lol) last time. So no I won’t take less than 10/1 OG though he won me cash as a 2yo.
The fact they are the same price seems inconsistent to me. Maxios seemed to beat OG hands down easy last time – shouldn’t it be Maxios is half price of OG at least. Granted he might not run his race but on the last performance he should be much shorter. He’s always been there or thereabouts for big races perhaps he is just coming to himself in a late maturing Niarchos family line?
Maxios isn’t a price I want to bet at 5/1 currently. We don’t know which DA will turn up. The 2000 winner probably wins this race as does the Dewhurst winner but perhaps not the runner of his last two races and if it is truly soft will that help or hinder him. For me he’s not a horse that wants truly testing ground.
It seems obvious but why are OG and Max the same price?? Max totally outgunned him last time and tactics or not the best horse won clearly on the day. Hardly a hard luck story. If the DA that won the Guineas and Dewhurst turns up then he’d be a shoe in (or maybe not). But surely at 5/1 or 9/2 the place Maxios rates a cracking EW bet? That’s were my money will be going anyway – in the 3 money back or small profit, wins and happy days. It is a wide open race though and you can make cases for many. The way Maxios won the Moulin stamped him as a classy individual who should be less inconvenienced by the ground than many and for me you can back him EW or double your stake the single, if he has travelled over well is sure to run well. An EW bet seems to be the way to go for me.
