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Well I don’t see the value of taking 5/1 OG when you can take the same price a horse who beat him easily/comfortably/irreversibly (lol) last time. So no I won’t take less than 10/1 OG though he won me cash as a 2yo.
That race was a farce. Jockeys should have been hung draw and quartered for their ‘efforts’. Only Pasquier had a clue what was going on. Pace setter went off far to quick and the true pace was on Maxios and they gave him a ridiculous head start. Race began in the home straight and they were all cooked. French can only judge pace where they are running backwards
My view is if its Soft Heavy Ground, Olympic Glory has a smaller chance here, both Dawn Approach and especially Maxios are more physically made for this ground. Olympic Glory is a classy animal and if its not too deep ground Good to Soft i would rule out Maxios as winner and give Olympic a big boost. Maxios is a Heavy horse, but its right i think the the straight track wont suit him aswell. Also i dont agree on the trainers view its not a miler, it can win Group races on a Heavy Soft mile, but on good Ground i cant see him even winning a Group 3 race on a mile. It all depends on the ground tommorrow i think. Very close stuff here. No bet for me.
Going Stick is 7,8 In Ascot on Friday so its more Good to Soft but rain forecast for tommorrow morning can change the bets, ill wait until i know the ground for sure.
Last of 4 in a class 4 at Beverley in June; winless in 6 outings before joining Brian Ellison (at Hogwarts) Top Notch Tonto is denied 4 from 4 for his new yard only by the short head of Breden at Newmarket. His Group 3 win was put down to a freakish result in easy ground, then he comes out and wins on good to firm.
He is far and away the best of his owner Keith Brown’s 6 horses, three of whom have earned not a penny. TNT’s lifetime earnings are £95,000. £70,000 has been paid to supplement him for this race. Racing is full of optimists, so does this one take the Gold for optimism? Or are connections firmly grounded and simply convinced they’ll get in the first 3 and, at worst, make a profit from it?
Hopeless romantic that I am, I’ll go with the latter and back him each way.
If he finishes down the field, no doubt Mr Brown will be seeking a Loan Arranger (the old ones are the best . . . for those who remember black and white TV)
Good luck to all
Joe
Last of 4 in a class 4 at Beverley in June; winless in 6 outings before joining Brian Ellison (at Hogwarts) Top Notch Tonto is denied 4 from 4 for his new yard only by the short head of Breden at Newmarket. His Group 3 win was put down to a freakish result in easy ground, then he comes out and wins on good to firm.
He is far and away the best of his owner Keith Brown’s 6 horses, three of whom have earned not a penny. TNT’s lifetime earnings are £95,000. £70,000 has been paid to supplement him for this race. Racing is full of optimists, so does this one take the Gold for optimism? Or are connections firmly grounded and simply convinced they’ll get in the first 3 and, at worst, make a profit from it?
Hopeless romantic that I am, I’ll go with the latter and back him each way.
If he finishes down the field, no doubt Mr Brown will be seeking a Loan Arranger (the old ones are the best . . . for those who remember black and white TV)
Good luck to all
Joe
Good spot, also think has a shout on Soft but only there.
Yes, Top Notch Joe,
Agree with you TNT’s a player. IF… both Dawn Approach and Olympic Glory fail to give their true running (quite possible)… Then IF… progressing only the average amount of those four previous starts… Would probably beat the rest! @ 20/1 he’s good value imo.Value Is EverythingDawn Approach
should be favourite and should be difficult to beat if recapturing his best. But I’ll look elseware for the value. Apparently scoped badly after Marois failure, or may be he just wasn’t over the Goodwood clash with Toronado. Either way, has question marks to answer. Not least on ground issues, yet to race on soft/heavy, though goes very well on good-soft.
Was around 2/1 when I said the above.
Not far off 3/1 now. If he gets to that price might be worth a bet!Value Is EverythingAye, Ginger. Jamie Lynch, Timeform’s top man (and one of the best writers in racing, imo), believes Dawn Approach can’t lose tomorrow.
He has the best time figure in the race by far, but the depth of his form revolves round Toronado. I don’t know enough about that horse to say if he’s a fine yardstick. R Hughes thinks a lot of him, and I’ve backed him a couple of times. But his York run was too bad to be true and, his worth too is probably best measured against DA – a chicken and egg situation.
DA is also quirky and can throw in a bad run just as easily as a good one. Then there’s the ground . . .
All in all, I’d rather take a chance on something else, and TNT will do EW, although he has been busy and I’m mystified as to how Mr Ellison got so much improvement from what looked a thoroughly exposed 3-y-o. He’s had more runs than the two-years-older Maxios.
The other one I’ll bet is Kingsbarns. I’m always happy to forgive a horse one poor run. He looked a potential superstar, will get his ground, the yard’s in fair form and at around 14s he’s probably four or five points too big.
Good luck
JoeI agree that Top Notch Tonto is definitely in the running for a place in tomorrows QE11, he has done nothing but improve and surprise and what a good looking finish it will be if he is fighting out the finish with Dawn Approach, two handsome white faces and white socks flashing past the winning post.
However, let’s not forget Top Notch Tonto is a gelding so no cosy retirement at stud for him, he will have to keep racing to earn his keep and tomorrow is his toughest test to date running against the 2000 Guineas winner.
Connections must have good reason to have supplemented him for £70,000. There’s every chance he will finish in the first 3 and if he finishes 3rd he will net them a £44,000 profit, that’s got to be worth the risk.
Just out of interest, has a gelding ever won the QE11?
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Hmmm . . . I’ve been through TNT’s form to try and find out when he was gelded (and if it coincided with his improvement). But there’s no mention of it in any of the RP race summaries.
He cost just 3,000 euros and started at 100/1 on his debut so a real fairy story awaits right enough.
If he wins tomorrow, I daresay the vet who cut him will be getting a panicked phone call "Can you remember where you put those balls!!?"
I wonder if, both surgically and within the rules, you could reattach testicles had they been frozen or otherwise preserved?
Anyway, returning to Kingsbarns, I see Hills are top at 16s and they offer that concession through the RP app – worth a bet.
Steeplechasing .. I was thinking along the same lines, what a shame he would have produced such good looking progeny. 
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Olympic Glory very easy to back, out to 6/1 with Ladbrokes. Stable seem happy with him, headgear will need to work, but does someone somewhere know something? Am less confident now, be worried if money does not come for him on course.
Value Is EverythingYou overestimate a lot of drifters I feel. I doubt his mega rich billionaire owners are queuing up at the bookies to back him or indeed sat on betfair laying him. Maxios is being supported and I would assume layers are taking the position their run last time out is a done deal?
If you are right though, he drifts and someone knows something, your original price estimation becomes flawed, surely, in the opposite, when a horse is well backed because ‘someone knows something’ your price estimation is also flawed as they may have a greater chance than you estimated.
The problem is there is no chance of knowing what is going on, many connections back their horse because they fancy it more than they know a lot more than the form book says.
Good luck though, I know you are already on! I think it will be a cracker of a race none the less!
Now Dawn Approach out to 7/2!
Said I’d be looking elsewhere for the value, but that price is just too big to ignore!Value Is EverythingYou overestimate a lot of drifters I feel. I doubt his mega rich billionaire owners are queuing up at the bookies to back him or indeed sat on betfair laying him. Maxios is being supported and I would assume layers are taking the position their run last time out is a done deal?
If you are right though, he drifts and someone knows something, your original price estimation becomes flawed, surely, in the opposite, when a horse is well backed because ‘someone knows something’ your price estimation is also flawed as they may have a greater chance than you estimated.
The problem is there is no chance of knowing what is going on, many connections back their horse because they fancy it more than they know a lot more than the form book says.
Good luck though, I know you are already on! I think it will be a cracker of a race none the less!
Fact they’ve put headgear on could mean OG’s showing more in them at home. Or it could be Hannon is just desperate for a big win for the Trainers Championship. If not showing the same attributes in work – then that information is bound to get around. It does not have to be connections money, or connections of connections…
But yes tb, I agree it could be layers are just counting the last run with Maxios as a "done deal". Which is why (when on course punters see the Timeform Race Card) I’d expect a market move for the horse. If that move does not come – then the above paragraph is more likely (not certain just more likely) and I’d be more worried my initial workings out are "flawed".
Value Is EverythingInteresting comments from R Hughes in today’s Post about OG’s dislike of hills!
THE ability to act on very
soft ground is going to be
crucial at Ascot today, and
all four of my rides should
handle the testing
conditions well, headed by Olympic
Glory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
(3.30).
He won a Group 1 on heavy ground
last year around Longchamp’s
seven-furlong course which is flat. I
warned Frankie [Dettori] before the
one-mile Moulin, which is run on a
different Longchamp track, that he
wouldn’t come down the hill and
that’s exactly what happened. It was
the same story in the French Guineas.
He doesn’t like going downhill and, as
a result, tends to get too far behind.
He will love Ascot’s flat, straight
mile, and don’t forget he ran a
fantastic race over Deauville’s straight
mile in the Jacques le Marois when
only beaten a short head by Moonlight
Cloud. A reproduction of that
performance could be good enough to
win today’s race in first-time blinkers.
It is not that Olympic Glory is
ungenuine; he is just very lazy. He
wore blinkers in a short gallop earlier
this week and travelled much better
with them on. If they can get just one
extra length out of him it could be
decisive.
Obviously if Dawn Approach turns
up in top form then he will take all the
beating, but personally I wouldn’t be
too afraid of MaxiosThanks for that Joe.
Interesting stuff about OG not liking downhill courses. I remember the Champagne at Goodwood where he got behind, seemingly going nowhere before flying home.Value Is EverythingMy opinion is Maxios will prove better than OG in this race but that’s my opinion – this is the opinion of Ryan Moore:
A lot of people thought that Maxios stole the race when beating Olympic Glory by five lengths in the Moulin last time, but I don’t think that he did. I rode Gale Force Ten to finish fourth in that race and we simply couldn’t lay up with the front two. A 6f sprinter set the pace, and Maxios was the only one who was able to lie up with her, so I don’t think he was flattered at all. And I think a straight mile in a strongly-run race will suit him; he is a grinder and that will be what is needed here. I can see him going close to winning.
The Hannon camp think that blinkers have made a difference to their horse at home. If they have, then he obviously has to be respected as there is no doubting the merit of his short-head second to Moonlight Cloud in a very good Marois. My mount Gregorian disappointed in France a fortnight ago but he is a solid Group 2 horse at his best and he wouldn’t mind any more rain. But, in all honesty, you can’t really see him being good enough to win this.
I love OG as a horse but I’ve always been of the opinion he is a top G2 horse but might always just come under true G1 class and this race is a proper G1.
Steeplechasing .. I was thinking along the same lines, what a shame he would have produced such good looking progeny. 
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