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Estimate is unbeaten in three starts at Ascot, handled soft ground when slamming her rivals in the Queen’s Vase last year and stays further than this two mile test, which will be a huge asset in testing conditions. She looks difficult to beat and there could be more to come.
Eye Of The Storm is progressing well, has won twice on heavy ground and the step up to this trip didn’t inconvenience him last time. He doesn’t have much to find and, while the form is somewhat irrelevant here, he had Galileo Rock and Libertarian behind when runner-up at Sandown on his seasonal debut. He is another open to considerable improvement.
Ahzeemah has not taken a backward step since being introduced off a mark of 79 two years ago. He has had a handful of these behind on his last two starts and is a most consistent and tough individual. It would appear the ground has gone against him and connections are adamant that he is a better horse on fast ground, but he could battle on when others have thrown in the towel.
You beat me to it in starting a thread for this race, Bosranic….
It’s wide open for me, so looking for a nice price and Aiken (at 14s) jumped straight out of the page at me. He likes the course and was only just outstayed by a proper G1 stayer in the same race last year in similar conditions. A little bit out of form, but he only made his seasonal debut in August and has also been running at shorter trips. Cheekpieces tried, and Richard Hughes up !
Can’t wait for the curtain raiser and will be in attendance again !
Estimate is clearly the horse which has to be feared most, two recent very good wins over the course (three out of three on runs there) put him bang in with a favourites chance. He may well be open to further improvement, so it’s quite difficult puting up something as a realistic opponent.
The thing is, 2/1 or 15/8 just doesn’t do it for me, I know a winner is a winner, but I’d rather be a bit more speculative and at 16-1 with Stan James, Times Up is a decent bet. A very decent winner of the Doncaster Cup and a respectable third at Longchamp last time out, he is in decent form, will have no trouble getting the 2m, even if it is soft (has won twice over 2m2f) and I don’t think he will be out of the frame. A small forecast with Estimate wouldn’t be amiss.
Given
Biographer
one last chance.
Remember thinking with an action like his – should do better with plenty of give underfoot. Lanigan back in good form too. Certainly a bit of temperament in Biographer, but at that price there’s bound to be negatives. 20/1+ is too big.I know Ed Dunlop is concerned over
Times Up
, but rain could favour him. Best three performances have all come on a soft surface. OK may be not quite as soft as it will be today, but if he handles it… The more rain the more stamina comes in to play; the better for his chance. Hope I don’t end up wanting to sue Soumi. 16/1 is value imo.
High Jinx
is a similar type, but does not win often enough, so just a saver.
Estimate
has the best chance, I backed her ante-post for the Gold Cup. Is improving, but been off a long time. Form (imo) is nowhere near as far in front of the rest as the betting suggests. Should not be that short, although will probably shorten up even further with sentimental money on course.
Eye Of The Storm
is an improving 3 year old and with the weight concession meaning more on a soft surface – is a very worthy second favourite and could catch the eye. Taken 7’s
Saddlers Rock
was running on in the Irish St Leger. Only just behind
Ahzeemah
, and look at the price difference! That his best performance for some time. Actually has THE best form in this race going back over a year. If that last time out run was an indication of better to come… A strongly run stamina test should suit. Although his very best is on different ground, has a markedly round action, so could prove suited. IMO Saddlers Rock should not go unbacked @ 40/1 on the machine!
Value Is EverythingOutside of Estimate then Ahzeemah looks the most likely winner as his form is very close to hers but he is 8-1 compared to 2/1 and can be backed EW 1/4 the odds.
Remember thinking with an action like his – should do better with plenty of give underfoot. Lanigan back in good form too. Certainly a bit of temperament in Biographer, but at that price there’s bound to be negatives. 20/1+ is too big.
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