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I agree. It is a bit worrying though when so called experts think the same horse has the best and the worst chance in a race. :biggrin:
It makes a mockery out of commercial computer programs that use SP forecast as an aid to predicting winners.
Yet Clive Holt in his book, that shows the full version of the Fineform formulae, regards SP forecast as a strong positive indicator of winners. I can see how this is true for non-handicap races, but most handicap races with more than 12 runners are almost a lottery.<br>Clive’s book recommends betting on horses that are top rated on the fineform formulae and 1st in the SP forecast .
On the face of it this seems like a good idea. However in the last 3 years I’ve noticed a change in race make up that shows there are fewer of these qualifiers and many of them lose. I think that the powers that be in racing have managed to make racing more competitive so that it is now more difficult for the punter. It will be interesting to see if the formulae still works in the future. If it does not then this implies several commercial programs that are similar in their use of SP forecast probably no longer predict horse race winners with any degree of accuracy.
(Edited by JAR at 8:27 pm on June 17, 2004)
17 th June
How this for SP forecast difference,<br>in a 6 runner handicap at Ripon 3.55
My Daily newspaper, a well known national daily, makes it
3/1 Have Faith 7/2 Invasian 4/1 Montix 5/1 Distant Connection 6/1 Tafaahum 8/1 West Highland Way.
<br>The Racing Post has
6/4 Distant connection 3/1 Invasian 5/1 Momtic<br>8/1 Fafaahum 8/1 West Highland Way 10/1 Have Faith.
<br>So HaveFaith is a 3/1 first favourite with one newspaper and a rank outsider at 10/1 with another!
No wonder some punters are daft enough to bet on virtual horse racing.
Bank b/f = £199.20
10 th June<br> Yarmouth 3.55 La Puce lost<br> Newbury 4.20 Pizazz lost<br>Bank = £179.20
11 th June <br> York 2.15 Flotta lost<br> Sandown 3.40 Drum Dance lost<br> Goodwood 6.50 Lady Georgina Won 13/8<br> Chepstow 7.05 Idealistic lost<br> York 4.25 Connect lost<br> Southwell 4.00 Kristikhab lost<br> Chepstow 6.35 Dahteer Won 4/5
Bank = £ 153.45
12 th June Leics 8.15 Fitting Guest Won 9/4
Bank = £175.95
13th June Salisbury Moss Vale Won 4/9
Bank = £180.39<br>14 th June<br> Windsor 6.30 Phred lost<br> Windsor 7.30 Marching Song lost<br> Brighton 3.15 A woman in love won 2/1<br> Warwick 9.15 Horner won 11/10 <br> Carlisle 5.00 Time to Regret lost
Bank = £181.39<br>15th June Ascot 3.45 Bachelor Duke lost
Bank = £171.39<br>16th June Southwell 4.30 Tre Colline lost
Bank = £161.39<br>17 th June Southwell 2.55 Romil Star lost<br> Ayr 9.30 Dark Raider won 10/3<br>Bank = £ 184.72
(Edited by JAR at 8:07 pm on June 16, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 11:11 am on June 17, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 7:57 pm on June 17, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 10:05 pm on June 17, 2004)
2 nd June<br> Beverley 8.10 Joseph Henry NR<br> Newcastle 2.30 Juantorena lost<br> Newcastle 4.30 Moyne Pleasure lost<br> Notts 2.10 Castelletto lost
Bank = £199.18
<br>3 rd June<br> Sandown 8.55 Buckeye Wonder Won 8/11<br> Haydock 4.50 Cardinal Venture Won 3/1<br> Hamilton 3.40 Champain Sands lost<br> Chepstow 2.30 AlGarhoud Bridge lost<br> Uttoxeter 9.10 Ottoman lost<br> Sandown 7.55 Polar Jem Won 11/8<br> Chepstow 4.30 Quedex lost<br> Uttoxeter 7.05 Piccini lost
Bank = £ 200.20
4 th June Goodwood 6.50 Qadar lost<br> Epsom 3.30 Doyen lost<br> Epsom 2.15 Dumaran lost<br> Haydock 7.35 Wasalat lost<br> Thirsk 4.35 Field Spark lost<br> Thirsk 2.05 Smiddy Hill lost<br> <br>bank = £140.20
5 th June Newm 8.30 Castleton Won 1/2<br> Perth 6.15 Carlys Quest lost<br> Newm 7.00 Park Romance Won 2/1<br> Epsom 4.20 North Light Won 7/2
Bank = £ 190.20
7 th June<br> Folks 2.50 Keresforth won 11/10<br> Folks 4.20 Vanderberghe lost<br> Newton Abb 2.05 Ark Admiral lost<br> Newton Abb 3.35 Sir Laughalot lost<br> Pontefract 8.15 Ice Palace lost<br> Windsor 7.00 Pango lost<br> Windsor 7.30 Barking Mad lost
Bank = £141.20
Huntingdon 7.35 Szeroki Bor won 4/5<br> Redcar 2.30 Joe Ninety lost<br> Chester 8.50 Whistler lost<br>Bank = £129.20
<br>9th June Bev 4.20 Awesome love lost<br> Hamilton 7.50 Acomb lost<br> Newb 8.05 Danclare lost<br> Ham 9.20 Malahide Express Won 11/1<br> Newb 8.35 Prince Hector lost
Bank = £199.20
<br>(Edited by JAR at 12:57 pm on June 9, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 10:01 pm on June 9, 2004)
New System
Starting Bank = £ 249.18
1 st June<br> Hexham 7.30 Polished lost<br> Leics 4.00 Arms across the sea lost<br>Bank = £ 229.18
<br>
(Edited by JAR at 7:49 pm on June 1, 2004)
I have had similar problems but only when using Netscape as a browser and not with Explorer.
I prefer to keep it simple and safe and just bet 4% of my current bank on each wager. However I often change my mind. :biggrin:
If I remember correctly, with this plan after a run of consecutive wins profit builds up rapidly but equally rapidly it will evaporate on a run of losing bets. So you have to have a predetermined point at which the plan stops and then you take your profit.
I don’t like a plan where at some undetermined point you have to decide when to pull up stakes. No brainer 4% or 5% of the bank staking is easier and then I can just concentrate on the selections. :)
(Edited by JAR at 8:23 pm on May 31, 2004)
Bank b/f £39.02
24 May <br> Leics 3.40 Nufoos won 5/6<br> Carlisle 2.20 Estihal won 6/4
Bank = £62.35
<br>25 th May<br> Notts 2.30 Laconicos lost<br> Sedge 6.35 Spectometer lost<br> Sedge 8.35 Son of Anshan lost<br>Bank = £32.35<br>26 May<br> Cartmel 5.10 Your a Gassman won 4/6<br> Fontwell 3.50 Whispered Secret won 5/6<br>Bank £47.34
<br>27 th May<br> Bath 2.20 Peeress won 10/11<br> Bath 3.20 Brag lost<br> Newton ABB 3.40 Stance Won 1/4
Bank = £48.93
Pont 7.35 Dario Gee Gee lost<br>Bank = £38.93
29 th May<br> Mussleburgh 2.50 Theatre of Dreams won 13/8<br> <br>Bank = £55.18<br> <br>31 May <br> Sandown 1.45 Prince Charming lost<br> Cartmel 3.15 Glen Warrior Won 2/5
Bank = £ 49.18
I ‘ve been running this computer based method for a while now and it started with a bank of £200 and now the bank stands at £49. This is not very promising and does not look like improving.
Also I am getting a little bored with all the data entry just to pick a winner at very short odds.
So much for computers.
I will now change the method. Most of the time the system will not use a computer except as a stand by when certain criteria arise.
I expect this change will bring about more selections and make the system more volatile but with increased chance of finding some value I hope it will leap into profit. :biggrin:
To give the new system a chance I will add £200 to the bank so the starting bank is £249.18 and bet in £10 level stakes.<br>
(Edited by JAR at 10:11 pm on May 31, 2004)
Bank b/f = £ 84.30
May 4 th
Warwick 2.00 Dramaticus lost<br> Bath 3.50 Jake Black lost<br> Brighton 3.10 Haunt the Zoo lost
Bank = £ 54.30
5 th May<br> Fakenham 8.15 White Dove lost<br> Chester 1.55 Dance Night Won 15/8
Bank = £ 63.05<br> Wetherby 6.10 Flight Command lost<br> Chester 3.30 Parasol lost
Bank = £ 43.05
Chester 2.25 African Dream Won 2/5<br> Hamilton 6.10 Stoic Leader Won 9/4<br> Wincanton 7.25 Even More Lost
Bank = £ 59.55
8 th May <br> Lingfield 3.10 Hazyview lost
Bank = £ 49.55
10 th May<br> Towcester 6.00 Sol Music lost<br>Bank = £39.55<br>11 th May<br> York 230 Punctilious Won 8/11<br> Newton Abbot 8.35 Wasted Talent Won 4/5
Bank =£ 54.42<br>12 th May<br> Perth 8.30 Torrid Kentavr Won 11/8
Bank = £68.57<br>13 th May York 4.10 Asiatic lost<br> Perth 4.35 Burwood Breeze lost<br> Perth 3.25 Banana Ridge lost<br> Ludlow 6.45 Dantes Venture lost<br>Bank = £28.57
<br> – ONLY TWO BETS LEFT IN THE BANK
14 th May<br> Notts 4.35 Twofan Won 8/13
Notts 3.25 Biscar Two lost
Bank = £24.72
15 th May<br> Bangor 4.10 Coole Venture lost <br> Bangor 4.45 Whispered Secret Won 4/7<br>Bank = £20.43
16 th May Fakenham 3.55 Ballyvaddy Won 5/4
Bank = £32.93
17 th May Musselburgh 8.20 American Cousin Won 7/2
Bank = £67.93
18 th May Towcester 6.00 Just A Touch lost<br> Goodwood 3.45 Red Lancer lost<br>Bank = £47.93
19 th May Folkestone 8.30 Cape Stormer lost<br>Bank = £37.93
Sorry late posting today, if fact after the race, but it lost anyway.
20 May Wetherby 4.10 Belcaro lost<br>Bank = £27.93
<br>21 May Newm 4.55 Silent Hawk won 10/11<br> Haydock 3.05 Brindisi won 2/5<br> Stratford 7.20 Whispered Secret lost<br>Bank = £31.02
22 May Ascot 2.15 Enchanted won 10/11 <br> Haydock 3.05 Sapphire Dream won 10/11<br> Newmarket 4.00 Capable Guest lost
Bank = £39.02
(Edited by JAR at 10:27 am on May 21, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 7:33 pm on May 21, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 10:16 am on May 22, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 6:37 pm on May 22, 2004)
Hi <br>I’ve just noticed that the computer program " Compunter" does not seem to be advertised anymore and the web sites associated with this product cannot be found.
I don’t know if the author of the program has either retired or passed on.
Seems a shame that the program is no longer available as it was a great little program to use with a Racing Post racecard. I liked the MSDOS version because it used large print which is easy on the eyes for a TOG like me.<br>
(Edited by JAR at 11:44 am on April 27, 2004)
Bank £ 93.89
April 27 th <br> Bath 4.00 Absolute Utopia Won 11/4<br> Lingfield 5.55 Montosari lost<br> Bath 5.00 Imperium lost
Bank = £ 101.39<br>April 28 th<br> Kelso 6.45 Lucky Duck lost<br>Bank = £91.39
April 29th <br> Southwell 2.30 Unlimited Won 13/8
Bank =£ 107.64
April 30 th<br> Notts 3.40 Grey Clouds lost
Bank = £97.64
May 1 st<br> Haydock 2.45 Meshaheer lost<br> Southwell 7.45 Guard duty lost<br>Bank = £77.64
May 3 rd<br> <br>Doncaster 3.35 Duke of Venice Won 4/6<br>Bank = 84.30
<br>(Edited by JAR at 11:24 am on May 1, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 11:00 am on May 3, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 5:36 pm on May 3, 2004)
Bank = £123.89
24 th April <br>         Haydock 6.45  Up Tempo  lost<br>         Leics    4.25  Streetlife   lost
Bank = £ 103.89
26 th April<br>         Hamilton  3.50  Sentry lost
Bank = £ 93.89
(Edited by JAR at 11:52 am on April 26, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 11:58 am on April 26, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 4:13 pm on April 26, 2004)
Hi LookingforAwinner
Yes, African Dream came in.
I think my system probably will do best from May to Sept as computers pretty much rely on settled proven form.
In future I could always use the system in those months.<br>I don’t know if it is my imagination but nowadays horses with the best form placings seem to come 2 nd rather than win and a lot of winners seem to come from France.
Cheers<br>
