[JAR]

Why not have the actual weights of horses published on the day of a race. That way punters can see if a horse is fit to race or not. This would show up the races that are more competitive.

[JAR]

Accurate actual weight of the horse published at overnight stage. So we can judge if a horse is fit or not.

[JAR]

Here is a way fineform may be used:

Award points for each of the last two races.

won ……………. 5 pts
Second ………..3 pts
Third ………….. 2 pts
Fourth ………… 1 point

Course win add …….. 1 point
Distance win add ….. 2 points

Each star in the Sporting Life Star ratings add ……. 1 point.

Possible maximum points = 18 points.
Best horse = most points

[JAR]

So, if I understand you correctly, you lay to a fixed liability and Betfair does the calculation for you.
Seems as good a method as any and I think it will give approximately the same results as the table I use.

[JAR]

Perhaps racing should go the way of football.
You can hardly watch the national news on television these days without several minutes or more of football "news" put into the news slot.
Football is only one sport there are many who’s main interest is another sport be it fishing, athletics, judo, running, swimming and horse racing to name a few.
If we had a few minutes of horse racing put into most national news programs, as is the case with football, just imagine how much more interest and hence more money would be generated for horse racing.

Also like football , catch them young – buy the kiddies horse racing T-shirts, hats etc. Encourage children that it is nerdy if they do not go into a bookies at the weekend.

[JAR]

I use a computer program for most of my punting.
Ten years ago it used to advise me of a "no bet because the race is too competitive", in about one in five races that I analysed.
Even then I rarely made a profit but mostly broke even.

Today my same program gives a "no bet " result in 99% of the races I analyse.
Since I only bet on the computers advice this has reduced by bets from 5 per week to less than 1 per month.
So much for the competitive racing initiative of recent years.

The result has been to cause me to reduce my bets. I am sure there must be other punters like me.
I cannot see how less punter money going into racing can help racing.
I will not bet unless there is at least a slim chance of a profit. The mugs are kidded that there is a chance of profit when there is not. The current set up leaves no chance at all of a profit and requires mug punters to keep the game going.

[JAR]

OK Dave Jay not sure what you mean by.. why don’t you just match backers stake to £2 ?
If you mean level stakes of £2.
I could do that. If you stick rigidly to the system it does tend to produce lays at short odds without much variation. However I am not too disciplined in that when a horse is almost a qualifier on my system perhaps its trainer strike rate is too high so it is in the top 50% of track trainers yet it is opposed by a strong first favourite leading to longer lay odds than usual. My staking means I can still back it and not care about the odds. It allows me to use my system but not to stick exactly to the exact method if other horses in a race lead me to lay horses that almost qualify in my system. I know this is a sloppy way of using a system but that’s me.

If an almost qualifier is at shorter odds than my usual system selections I don’t care as that usually means I’ve found value in the lay bet.
If an almost qualifier is at longer odds than my usual system selections the staking plan ensures I can lay it and not risk too much of my bank.

When I have more results in I will probably do a comparison of level stakes against my staking method to see what difference it makes.

Clive Holt in his book Winners Back Winners recommends variable level staking for use with his fineform formulae for win bets. So I just turned this around to use it for lay bets. I’ ve not yet examined any other staking methods for lay bets.
I am not sure if the Fineform formulae works anymore as racing seems to have changed.

I am beginning to think lay betting is the way to go. There seems to be fewer non-handicap races nowadays. Those that exist often produce shock results, for win bets, where form goes out of the window.
For instance the Pontefract 3.40 on Monday 22nd won by Siberian Tiger the horse with the longest SP in the Racing Post and the penultimate worse RPR.
Other horses Bazergan and Latin Lad had 9 and 4 tips in the selection box while Siberian Tiger had no tips at all!
A computer program of mine rated it the third best horse in the race so I knew that it was value odds. But I just could not bring myself to back it. Still at least I didn’t lay it.
You would certainly needed to have traded out of a lay on this one, as Matron does.

[JAR]

I’ve used DGA, Pro Punter, Boxform and Compunter software. It takes from 12 to 30 minutes per race, to enter race data depending which one is used.
It that’s not bad enough two versions of the software will then indicate a bet is not Value For Money for about 95% to 99% of races. The other versions do not indicate if a bet is value for money at all.
I will not say more than this, as I am not here to advertise software or even say if I recommend any or not. I simply wish to give others the benefit of my experience.
So for an input of ten races , nine of these races consist of four and a half hours wasted and one of these races after 12 to 30 minutes of data input provides me with a useful result.
However with very careful choice or race, a very, very small profit can be made over a period of wagers, provided the software is only used in the summer when the weather and ground conditions are constant.
At least two of the above software programs are out of date since they have been around for over ten years now. It seems a shame no one can write any good software to replace the above. Most modern products seem to involve the scam of requiring a user to pay exorbitant fees for data downloads such that you would need a massive profit to afford the fees.

Most software cannot cope with the trainer who runs his horse at an incorrect distance or going or at an unsuitable track to produce poor form before specially preparing a horse for a coup. Then again my crystal ball can’t either.

[JAR]

Thanks Dave
I must admit it is a problem getting a lay bet matched at value odds.
My estimates of value always seem to be unmatchable on the exchanges.

I do not often post because basically I do not have much knowledge that has not already been posted somewhere in the forum. I am no expert, just an ordinary bloke who likes horse racing and using computers. I do frequently read forum articles though.

[JAR]

The Sporting Life, Attheraces and a daily newspaper will have to do for me if they start to charge. I wonder if the Life will still publish the NAPS table though?

[JAR]

I am sure the data is available of field size , going and number of horse deaths somewhere.<br>If someone looked at this data it would be obvious if these factors influenced horse deaths or not.<br>If it mean’t no horse deaths I would happily accept fewer runners in each race.

[JAR]

I’ve not posted for a while so here goes.

One problem for punters who bet from home is that they do not know the condition of horses just before a race.<br>There are several "services" for punters on the net that aid betting but as far as I know none show the horses in the paddock before the race.  

With the Internet and Digital Cameras widely available.<br>Would it not be a good idea if pictures were taken of horses in the paddock on the day of the races. These could easily be uploaded onto an internet site available for punters to see.

Perhaps a forum site could accept pictures available from members at a race meeting.:)

[JAR]

Hi Artemis<br>I’ve read Betting for a Living by Nick Mordin.<br>Nice book but betting for a hobby is hard enough, don’t think I’d dare try to live off it.<br>:) <br>I have one system that makes a very small profit.<br>Massive stakes and high risk for a small profit, my nerves wouldn’t stand it.

[JAR]

Hi I’ve used Punter Pro.

The way I use it is I look for horses that are top rated on variables Punter’s Pro does not consider.

For example C and D rated and top on Topspeed in the Racing Post internet pages, a tip from a newspaper expert or top on a daily newspaper form ratings.<br>Then I rate all the horses in this race using Punter’s Pro.<br>If the horse is top on Punter’s Pro it is a bet as long as the price is right.<br>This method seems to just about break even as long as I only use it in settled and fine weather conditions.:)

I tend to leave it alone after a while as I get bored with picking favourites.<br>

[JAR]

The new system was rubbish.<br>Ho hum, :) back to the drawing board.<br>I will have to think of something new:biggrin: <br>

[JAR]

Hi David<br>I gather you are a football fan :biggrin:

[JAR]

Shouldn’t football be in the football section. I am one of a small but significant minority in this country that does not like having football pushed into my face.<br>In fact I think Racing and Football Outlook magazine would be better if it were just Racing Outlook and half the price.<br>I am interested in several sports but I am afraid football is not one of them. I do not put a method for say selecting judo winners in the football section so why should a method for selecting football winners be in the horse section.<br>

[Author]

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