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You wait till Our Vic and Sir Rembrandt show Beefy or Fishy the way home, Davey lad!
I think maybe the most attractive aspects of betting to most of us is to see our judgment vindicated. (Unfortunately, the corollary also holds true of course…!).
So I suppose it is hardly surprising if we favour this, over having the satisfaction of saying to ourselves, "Well, over the year I made so much money, so astutely did I read the prevailing trends, and defer to them as the general basis for my bets".  Hence the existence of bookmakers who do precisely that, with awesome success.
In case you international punters haven’t seen this… (Don’t read the blurb first. Read it after you’ve seen it. Just click on "Click here to view the spot):
http://www.shots.net/news.asp?id=2971
(Edited by Grimes at 12:37 am on Feb. 21, 2006)
I absolutely agree with Sloochie. Although I can’t bring myself to pay as much attention to the statistics as I would like (until after the event, when it’s likely to be too late), I believe bookies generally operate on the basis of trends, and the real shrewdies, such as Seagull (I believe it’s Seagull, the bloke who’s written a book on trends) seem to have it down to a fine art.
The closest I come to it, is usually looking at the tables of respectively the leading trainers and leading jockeys on the RP racecard. I also sometimes remember to look at the record of the favourite, which some papers give.
I think you need to grow up synthesing these kinds of factors at the outset of your winner-finding (in however ancillary a manner)  – which probably means having your father’s guidance at the outset.
I should add that the slavish adherence of many to trends can work to your advantage. This is particularly noticeable with regard to the betting. I absolutely do not assume that because a price goes out at a rate of knots, it is necessarily a reflection  of its chance or its connections confidence.
I haven’t perfected it by any means, but seldom does a day go by when I don’t see price shorten or started short in the betting, in what I consider a significant context, and the horse wins. More commonly though, and admittedly more speculatively, since the very price ranges tend to start and finish much higher, the last thing I want is for more than one tipster to mention an outsider I fancy. ÂÂÂ
Of course, there are all sorts of trends, some potentially more significant than others, and the point I suppose is not to be too slavish about heeding any of them, but at least considering them in proportion.
(Edited by Grimes at 11:46 pm on Feb. 20, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 11:48 pm on Feb. 20, 2006)
What is suggested is not as simplistic as you conceive it to be, David.
Nothing, but nothing, in this game should be viewed in isolation. It should be a pointer to look into the matter further. It may be assessed as a confirmatory factor in relation to a fancy, lead you to look at its form and conceive a fancy for it, or it may be viewed as an irrelevance, depending on all the rest of the background context relating to the horse, its connections and the race.
I expect the prices of such winners would tend to be rather good too.
I’ve just found this, schumi:
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing
I’ve been wanting the birthdays of racehorse connections for a while.
If you despise any information that can find you winners, David… how can I put this politely… your’e in the wrong game.
It looks to me as if Korelo has been laid out for the Skybet Chase at Southwell on Saturday. I got 12s with Bluesquare, Skybet offering 10s, I think.
I don’t think he’s run in a chase here, but ran well in some fairly expensive races, notably a 4 length 4th in a £58,000 Group I in 2002, in France, over 2 miles and six. And of course, he was a pretty good hurdler here more recently.
He ran a decent third last time against Nine de Sivola, and the betting suggests the bookies certainly fear him. Betfred goes as low as 9/1.
He’s down to carry just 10.2 at the moment, and I hope he gets in, because at the moment the field’s pretty big, with 39 above him.
(Edited by Grimes at 11:46 pm on Jan. 24, 2006)
Thanks for the reminder, Rory. I knew I had it garbled. But I was speaking, you may recall, about the long handicap, in which I’m sure he wasn’t one of the top weights by some way.
Guy Harwood getting Cataldi into a big handicap about a third of the way down the long-handicap weights, after coming third in a show of heads in an Eclipse or Champion Stakes, I think, in a record time – beating the record set by Brigadier Gerard not hat long before.
it was also an achievement of his, imho, to have kept his sanity after Te Agori Mou, I think, seemed to have been robbed of a classic, on a legal appeal by the Wizard of Cashel, in favour of the horse he trained – whose name I’ve forgotten.
1.05 C – Star Member<br>1.30 C – Exotic Dancer<br>2.10 C – Olaso<br>2.45 C – Innox<br>3.20 C – Our Vic
Reserves:<br>3.55 C – Afsoun<br>3.35 U – Woodlands Genpower
Yes, I remember the twisted gut, etc, now you mention it, Rory. Though I didn’t know horses could be prohibited from breeding on that basis.
Anyway, there are always imponderables about breeding, are’t there. It’s certainly nothing like an exact science. Rakti could be an absolute ace stallion, or realtively poor. Isn’t it the case that some of the greatest champions have been relatively indifferent sires?
