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Alas, Seasider, just the two Peter Simple’s – a bay & a grey.
Well, here’s a first clue: the name is also the title of a track on a Rod Stewart LP!
Hi Ginger, nwalton, Space Cowboy in particular & sorry folks for the delay in responding – have been visiting my parents for 2 days and they don’t have internet!
It’s true we never stop learning SC but I’d rather spend extra study time on form/horses/trainers/jockeys than on pure maths to gain an extra edge.
Ginger, re opinion & reading the form book well. I think that most on here would agree that their fellow posters are good at this. However, I’ve always said everyone will be incorrect more than they are correct. It’s the degree of correctness allied to the prices of some of the correct selections that determines whether there is profit and how much. Even a good strike rate is actually a low percentage.
Is backing those I believe have the best chance of winning sustainable in the long run? Well, what period is the long run? Basically, I concentrate on Jumps races shown on RUK. After a lifetime of love for the sport, and much learning, I started backing my beliefs without knowing whether I would win or lose on 16/9/15 (£10W or £10E/W if 16/1+) & ceased on 17/5/16 at +£2,221.15 (would go year round but I’m compiling what I hope will be the ultimate Grand National website and need time to focus on that). I recommenced on 28/9/16 and am currently +£1,258.33 (for this season). (Maybe small stakes to some but if I was staking in £100 units I expect all my accounts would have been closed by now.) Does anyone think this is short term lucky success?
I come to an opinion (predicted performance rating) of the chances of all horses in a race using Racing Post lifetime form as a base. I guess I’m more skilled than the odds compilers. They probably don’t work as hard as we do. I differ from you nwalton in that I don’t have a price to play at in mind, I just play.
I’m too busy studying form and researching the GN to have calculated my +/- at each price. That’s why I say the short ones are probably just so much to-ing & fro-ing but, as with you SC, they are for interest & fun. I guess if things hadn’t gone so well I would have found the time to analyse! Roughly I think my profit is 10+% of my stakes. Maybe I should start listing all my selections in the appropriate place on here for a period if I can find the time.
I back a horse, at 16/1 or 1/6, because I believe it will win (I don’t back E/W just hoping for a place). Value in the sense you & many others believe in Ginger is somewhat secondary to me. My interpretation of value comes into play, as explained in my previous post, when there is difficulty separating 2 or more horses, and my slant on value can also be seen in the price below which I will not back E/W.
We on here have distinctive ways of working/playing & sometimes see things from wholly different perspectives. There is the pure maths value. There is the intrinsic value that one is instinctively more skilled than the odds compilers!
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Started by: GoldenMiller34 GoldenMiller34
14251 week, 6 days ago
GoldenMiller34 GoldenMiller34I’m afraid not Crepello. There have been 2 Royal Mail’s, the 1937 winner who also ran in 38 & 39 and the NZ bred horse who took part in 1981/82/83.
I’m sorry for the delay in reply folks, have been visiting my parents whose place is an internet wilderness!
Is this question too hard – should I start giving clues?
A shambles indeed with the key prosecution witness coming across, to me, at least, as totally unreliable. Had it been a proper legal case, I think a conviction would have been unlikely (regardless of whether it was deserved or not).
There has to be a complete overhaul now of the way all such cases are handled.
Totally agree. As an observer I am none the wiser as to whether Jim Best is culpable or not because the only strong theme to emerge from the case is the total unreliability of Paul John. Is it reasonable to take away a man’s livelihood based on that?
Wow, this makes investing so complicated! I’ve said it before, value in itself is overrated! Fine if you can back every horse in a race and still make a profit. Otherwise, if you read the form book well and your opinion is correct enough of the time you will make money by keeping it simple. Instead of backing a plethora of horses you don’t think will win, back your opinion, minimise backing against yourself.
Approaching a race without preconception, or bias towards short or long odds, my opinions throw up plenty enough longshots to be successful (given that backing short ones is just so much to-ing and fro-ing, though I do anyway for the hell of it!) I keep it simple, back to even stakes (which minimises losses), usually 1 horse per race to Win or, if horse happens to be 16/1 or bigger, E/W.
When my opinion can’t split 2 horses at, say, 8/1 & 9/1 I back both to Win – that is value! Sometimes in big field handicaps with generous E/W places I will back 3 or 4 but this is rare. The other way value applies for me is if I can’t split, say, one at 4/1 or shorter & one at 5/1 or bigger – I just back the better price. Real value is finding winners enough of the time from a minimal number of selections. Simply backing an opinion about wonderful living, breathing creatures rather than reducing the game to pure maths!
Since the race’s inception in 1836 there have been many instances of different horses sharing the same name running in the Grand National at one time or another. However, there is only one example of the same moniker applying to 4 separate animals over the years. What is that name?
Trinitro in 2000, trained by Rune Haugen. I’m not aware of any other Scandinavian trained horse having run in the race.
The New One – ran to about 168. Had expected 163 but new tactics & new bit helped revitalise. On similar ground could hit 170 which is close to his best so worth sticking to 2 mile Hurdles for now & see what happens.
My Tent Or Yours – 157. Not knocked about once beaten but ought to have been capable of better, even on Soft (judged on several past runs and because it was wet, sloppy Soft not holding), so the going is not a full excuse. After the long injury absence came back to run 167 in the CH. Subsequent runs: 160, 159, 144 & now 157. Hard to escape the conclusion that the game effort at the highest level last March on return has taken a toll on the horse. Even on better ground I would find it hard to predict the horse could do better than low 160s.
Old Guard – 152. Exactly as I expected, 5 short of his best rating (same race, similar going last year) because horse not in the same form yet this year due to unhappy try at Chasing & encountering hated Heavy (PU only other run on it) at Haydock. Will do 157 next time, for what its worth.
Plenty of hard luck stories in that race.
It was a fair way from home but Kings Oddysey appeared to be in an ideal spot and coasting when he departed. He probably needed a lot more assistance than it seemed Jacob was able to provide. While Jacob didn’t do enough Moore was at totally the other end of the spectrum. Surely he would have better served by sitting off Village Vic rather than continually attacking the leader? He appeared to be riding as if every fence was the last. The very bad error and then the slow jump at the last almost certainly cost him more than he was beaten.
King’s Odyssey remains one to be interested in off the same mark. My only bet was Kylemore Lough to win based on its good jumping and he actually outjumped Village Vic at several which kept bringing him alongside. But when it counted he botched two of the last three, the error at the third last definitely cost him the race. Even then, and this is my only criticism of Moore, if Jamie had given him a little time to recover, instead of rousting him under pressure to lead, and challenged later he may still have won.
F***ing Eastlake. He’s bollocked everything right up. 6-folds, CFCs, EW singles. Arghhhh!!!!!
Actually if you ignore Eastlake, I picked the 1-2-3-4……………..unbelievable.
Yes, it’s unbelievable. Evidently Eastlake had a fibrillating heart on its 2 previous runs this season. However, this information does not appear to have been made known to the public before the race. On the other hand it doesn’t seem as if those close to the horse backed it. The only reasonable pre-race assumption was that today’s race was not a target. On top of all this the horse has run a career best at a trip that might have been thought short of its best nowadays!
Assuming the going will be G to S (G places) I’ve taken a chance of Un Beau Roman backing up last time having had a proper break in the summer this year. Vaniteux is the main danger, always makes an error and his mark accounts for that but a catastrophic blunder is always a real possibility.
Not a race that excites. I can see Mister Miyagi & Court Minstrel being nons. My Tent Or Yours should win by about 7 lengths from The New One!
I think this is a great race with several proven quality performers and quite a few up and coming potential improvers. It is very very tight and predicting the exact going at 1.50 can only be educated guesswork. My guess is G to S (S places).
Therefore, I have restricted myself to Kylemore Lough (W 8/1) – jumps well, improver & form already has substance. I strongly considered Quite By Chance E/W at 16/1 but the likelihood of a non runner and only 3 places put me off. I also considered King’s Odyssey to win at 12/1 but whilst an exciting prospect he has more to prove than many others.
Claimers over Jumps: the obvious one is Harry Cobden. Also Mr James King, Stan Sheppard, Toby Wheeler, Ross Chapman and perhaps Blair Campbell.
Yes, I’m not keen on ATR either. Just use it to watch replays of key Irish races, and the best Jumps races at ATR courses are on terrestrial.
RUK is brilliant and I agree it would be disappointing to lose any pre and post race analysis, Machin and Neesom are the best double act since Laurel and Hardy!
However, having trawled through the fixture list, the new acquisitions fit in very well, though Taunton and Leicester on the Thursday and Friday respectively of the Grand National meeting could do with shifting in 2018 or risk becoming as annoying as Huntingdon on the Wednesday of Cheltenham!
If RUK pick up any more courses perhaps they could have separate channels for Jumps and Flat – then I wouldn’t have to put up with the latter at all :)
Was a great race. Gods Own ran well considering his early error
UDS battled back well, 1st run entitled to come on for that. SDG ran another crackerconclusion
Douvan will eat that lot for breakfast……
Maybe, but how will a dish of Fox suit Douvan’s palate :)
