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It does not matter the quality of the horse whether in a Grade one or five, it still can "bounce". Bad example Well Chief falling early at Cheltenham and not staying at Aintree.
If a horse has a hard race on his reappearance, may be a strongly run race on very soft ground. Then he is likely to bounce. If it has an easy race first time, it is likely to be o.k.
But then again, if any horse has a hard race it is likely to take time to get over it.
When a horse runs poorly on its third run we have no name to give it, if there was a name we’d probably notice it more.
Some horses are simply best fresh.Does the bounce factot exist?
Undecided, 60% of me says yes 40% says it can be put down to other factors.Value Is Everything
Our team got thrashed by the Racing Post, played our joker on the wrong round. Congratulations to the Racing Post team of Graham Dench, Craig Thaike, Lee Motershead and one other who’s name escapes me.Unsurprisingly, none of the journalists there approached me about the table. Will have to accept nobody is willing / allowed to respond to my question. Am also surprised at how many punters apparently have no interest in showing a profit.
Thank you to all the people who took part in the West Berkshire Racing Club quiz last night.
Value Is EverythingThought I had a good price at fourty something before the Boylesports. Well done Grasshopper. My price though has to be brought down a peg or two as have backed 4 horses so far, one being Iktitaf.
Segal was clearly speaking metaphorically when he said he would not back another of D.Pipes. What other race is Osana supposed to go for this time? The Arkle without a run over fences and forego the second best chance of winning a Champion Hurdle. This is turning out to be a poor looking Champion hurdle at the moment, ripe for an improving horse. Osana, Sizing Europe or even Khyber Kym.
Good tip imo
Value Is EverythingI too am on Kyber Kym for the Supreme (only 9/1) but thanks for pointing out the 89/1 for the Champion.
If Nicky has another that could run in the Supreme and Afsoun and Punjabi fail in their trials. It would be distinctly possible for a Champion bid.
Value Is EverythingThe triumvirate is still active Drone, see them together a lot at Newbury and Goodwood. I believe Ken’s opinion is sought by a lot of professionals on track, obviously a knowledgeable chap.
I wonder whether he wanted to carry on with his RUK work, it may not have been profitable for him. Standing as a pundit on RUK means you can not get your bets on.
Value Is EverythingWould not Sandown come in to that category?
Where Twist Magic won the Tingle Creek on softish ground.I think it might be more to do with the surface not bedded down propperly yet, on a new course.
The front runners were surely horses known to like racing up with the pace, not horses that just found themselves there. Lough Derg, Tamarinbleu, Labelthou, even the two that went too fast, Marodima and Mahogany Blaze. All known to be prominent runners.
York does give a similar effect, though there too prominent runners seem to have an advantage especially up to a mile.
Value Is EverythingWhy are people having such black and white views?
To say Twist Magic will not win the Champion is nonsence.
To say he will win is nonsense.
Twist Magics performance at Sandown (which is a fairly testing course, on softish ground) was quite impressive. Though the pace was not great. I thought the media went overboard on how good the run was.
However, haven’t they done the opposite for the VC? If my life depended on picking the winner, right now I would have to go for Twist Magic. To beat Voy Por Ustedes like he did, he must have the best chance of winning the Champion at this moment. Could be a better horse on good ground. Have always thought he sometimes finds little off the bridle and would not stay 2m 3f. But even allowing for that, he should be favourite. It is just a matter of is his price now value, in my opinion, not.Value Is EverythingHi Ginge. Of course I rememeber. How are you?
I wasn’t really using the site much whe you got banned so I don’t know what happened, but you’re right about them not liking criticism. I’ve got a bit fed up with it all really as there is never much discussion about horse racing unless it’s the Cheltenham festival, and you could count the form students on one hand.
I wish I had found this place a few years ago.
I agree totally, but looking back you were one of my most vosiferous opponents in my early days there
unlike most though you did give reasons.
Still, no grudges.
It all came to a head when I tipped in their Pro bets section, Sakhees Secret ante-post for the July Cup at 13/2, saying it should be a 7/2 shot. They said it was not a pro bet because you could not mortgage your house on it. Being exceptional value had nothing to do with it, in their eyes. So they moved it to the "fun bets". I complained, we had a discussion. Supose to be fair I was trying to tell them how to run their site but even so. Despite having a value tips thread showing very good profit they banned me.
Best thing that could have happened.
The horse reminded them of their error, as it will again this season I am sure.Value Is EverythingSo if it was just genuinely good-soft Prufrock, how do you explain that it was comparative stayers winning most races? Surely on normal good-soft going horses like Tamarinbleu would not be able to outspeed their rivals.
Hang on.
Actually, if it was genuinely good-soft, and it was just loose ground we were seeing (on a new course) being flicked up. May be the jockeys of the hold up horses under estimated the quickness of the surface, going too slow early on. The front runners going the best pace. That might be why (other than Wee Robbie where they did go too fast) the front / prominent runners did so well.Is that what you are saying Prufrock?
Value Is EverythingI don’t think I quite understand the problem; why would an on-course punter take SP?
I think Sean the original question was about percentages, not particularly SP’s. You know percentages, true odds, value and all that. Sorry, you would not understand the problem would you.
Value Is EverythingI think you are all right (or should that be wrong).
The times brigade are right, it is impossible to do those sought of times on Soft, Heavy in places.
However, the way they were finishing and the fact it was comparative stayers at the particular distances winning. Leads me to suggest the going (although not Soft, Heavy in places (as we know it), was acting as if it was extremely testing. With some able to handle it, some not (whatever their previous going requirements might have been).
Were they getting through the ground at a faster pace because it was a newish course / ground, not compacted as much may be.
So I ask again.
Should there be another going description of tacky or holding? None of the existing going reports used seem to fit.
Value Is EverythingWhere are all these good horses going to come from?
They can only be from other races, making those other races poorer because of it.
Think I smell another thread coming on…
Value Is EverythingThey do have a course of action to take Wallace.
Don’t take Starting Price.
Value Is EverythingHmm.
Sorry, I said what I said without looking at the times. It seems you are right about it not being as soft as the official. And being very much times oriented person I supose I have to say I was wrong in my original thought.
However, the actual results of these races with stayers (at the trips concerned) winning. Tamarinbleu goes on good so it is not his form on the ground that makes it difficult to swallow, it is the fact he (and others) are stayers.Should there be another going report called tacky or holding?
The horses were getting through the ground reasonably quickly but it certainly was taking it out of them. Obviously by times it was not heavy, but I do think good-soft would be misleading too.
Unless they were not running over the full trip as advertised (as you say) or the clock used did not work propperly.
Value Is EverythingWhether it is just my imagination or not, but this seems to be happening more often. Surprised it took place at a southern course though. Saturdays, I often notice on TV, half the horses shortening in the betting with only one or two at most lengthening. Surely if the bookmakers are keeping their overound the same an equal amount should be going out. The overound ought to be getting less nearer the off, not more. Think it might have something to do with what those bookmakers think they can get away with. If it is a holiday crowd then daylight robbery.
Value Is Everything
Our team got thrashed by the Racing Post, played our joker on the wrong round. Congratulations to the Racing Post team of Graham Dench, Craig Thaike, Lee Motershead and one other who’s name escapes me.
unlike most though you did give reasons.