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CAS,
If looking at CH’s hurdling technique when at his best: Even in the early stages of his races he still tended not to give hurdles much room for error… And it was that fast technique (and minimum of effort) that meant he’d gain significant amounts of ground on his rivals – even before they “got racing”.Constitution Hill had the best hurdling technique I have ever seen. However, that in turn meant there was no room for error and once getting one wrong (yes) his confidence was shattered… which has led to a long line of falls.
Value Is EverythingI do hope Sir Gino comes back, otherwise I can see Nicky himself retiring at the end of the season – if not before.
Value Is EverythingRuby,
At Constitution Hill’s best, he was able to put up absolutely outstanding ratings. Not just Champion Hurdle winning form but ratings rarely seen of Champion Hurdle winners (and one of those performances as a novice). Quite a bit better than State Man ever produced.However, one of the major reasons he was capable of achieving such exceptional ratings was his exceptional jumping. I say “Exceptional” because it was so spot on every time; not leaving much margin for error. Even at his very best there was a feeling that at some point he’ll get one wrong…
And he has got one wrong… And that has led to a losing of confidence… Which in turn has led to both a worse style of jumping (no longer exceptional)… AND – because previously exceptional jumping has meant he’s not used to altering (shortening etc) – more errors.
Truth is Constitution Hill is no longer capable of his best and is now in danger every time he goes onto a racecourse.
I hope Constitution Hill is retired and we can remember him as a brilliant hurdler.
Value Is EverythingAt Constitution Hill’s best, he was able to put up absolutely outstanding ratings. Not just Champion Hurdle winning form but ratings rarely seen of Champion Hurdle winners (and one of those performances as a novice).
However, one of the major reasons he was capable of achieving such exceptional ratings was his exceptional jumping. I say “Exceptional” because it was so spot on every time; not leaving much margin for error. Even at his very best there was a feeling that at some point he’ll get one wrong…
And he has got one wrong… And that has led to a losing of confidence… Which in turn has led to both a worse style of jumping (no longer exceptional)… AND – because previously exceptional jumping has meant he’s not used to altering (shortening etc) – more errors.
Truth is Constitution Hill is no longer capable of his best and is now in danger every time he goes onto a racecourse.
I too hope Constitution Hill is retired and we can remember him as a brilliant hurdler.
Value Is EverythingYes, The New Lion was far from guaranteed to have won had he stood up, CAS.
However, It was clear TNL hated being in front and also he is more of a 2 1/2 stamina horse than both Anzadam and Golden Ace. So I’d expect TNL not to be going as well at the point TNL fell. And given that… I’d say he was the most likely winner had he stood up.Value Is EverythingDepends what you mean by “proper recognition” Racingorchid.
Yes, jumping is the name of the game, so Golden Ace should have some recognition.
…But the fact is the form she has actually put up in both the Champion Hurdle and Fighting Fifth is (compared to many Champion Hurdle and Fighting Fifth winners) poor… Because of those fallers and other rivals that have not run to form. He’s only beaten Nemean Lion under two lengths today and that simply is not “top class” form.Value Is EverythingThese days (since losing confidence in his own jumping) Constitution Hill needs to lead. Not even having anything at his side. Put off in his Cheltenham prep, Cheltenham and Ireland before today. Newcastle in front over the first and then upsides at the second… Crash. He’s put off by other runners.
Last season connections of The New Lion were at pains to hold him up. Just isn’t used to leading and lost concentration up front today.
Value Is EverythingFrom what I saw about the pace… Being at the back was no disadvantage. Although possibly having to go widest off the turn was… But not the amount Ombudsman was beaten by – so not “unlucky” at all. Calandagan came from second last too – and they’re similar types – so the pace was no excuse. Calandagan the best horse. EDIT: Made the same comments as LD.
Delacroix didn’t have a clear run through, but clearly third best on the day. Graffard and Gosden in better form than AOB too. Delacroix just not quite at his best which would imo have got him closer to the front two without beating them. Delacroix can get a bit hot and mess about beforehand. I wonder whether “The Lads” knew he had done so either on course or in transit to the track. Friendless in the market which is usually ominous for a Coolmore horse.
O’Brien with no Group 1’s on Champions Day.
Value Is EverythingNot sure what to make of the draw now, Alan.
Were the going numbers wrong?I thought in the Sprint the middle and stand side might be better. But Cicero, Lion and Docklands were all racing towards the rail in the QEII… Albeit not absolutely on the rail, but both Kalpana and Trawlerman were not disadvantaged by doing so either.
However, in the QEII they ALL raced in the third of the track closest to the far side in which the area closer to the rail was (possibly) faster. So was it that the “fastest” – middle and stand side thirds of the track – didn’t come into play because no horse raced on it?
Or is it just where the best pace is?
Value Is Everything“So much for her needing softer ground then”
Who? Kalpana?
On race times and form – for me – she was the one at the top of the market most likely to act on the ground. Too much is made of “winning” on the surface. Kalpana’s best form includes against Calatagan and Whirl.Value Is EverythingTo be fair, LD. All of those at the front of the market (bar the fav and Big Mojo) had doubts about being fully effective on a firmish surface. So it is not that surprising they disappointed.
That said… On the straight course I suspect the third of the track closest to the stand rail is faster than the far side two thirds.
Value Is EverythingNo.
All horses are different
Sweet william is a bit of a thinker, needs finessing into the race… Also not as much of a thorough stayer as Trawlerman, so SW needs hanging onto for longer.As Ruby Walsh said, it was a good ride in defeat. Havlin got close enough early enough if good enough. In the last strides Trawlerman was actually pulling away again.
Value Is EverythingDocklands is better at Ascot than anywhere else. But Eustace was in the form of his life Royal Ascot week. When a stable’s horses are running so outstandingly well (particularly a relatively small stable) they can be confidently opposed afterwards. The performance ratings put up by those horses at that time are often career bests; never quite at that level again… Eustace is not in at all bad form right now, but nothing like he was mid June. So even with Docklands coming back to Ascot I can’t see him being good enough for win purposes… Place only – possibly.
Dancing Gemini would have a chance at his best. But I am convinced he’s a Spring / Early Summer horse.
Fallen Angel was impressive in the Sun Chariot and is the one “in form”. But the amount of chance relies on the ground. Although she has plenty of form on “Good”; there’s a fairly big chance of not being quite so effective on good-firm.
Never So Brave is also “in form”, but is that form good enough? The City Of York was a Group 1 but the actual form doesn’t look real Group 1 standard. That said, that was back at 7f and there’s a chance a mile is his optimum and could yet progress. As is stable Companion Marvelman. However, I’m not so sure the Balding second string will be good enough or whether he’ll stay.
Facteur Cheval has been second in the last two QEII’s but that has been on softer ground (where fewer horses have run to form). He also hasn’t been in as good form this season.
With his trainer in much better form than previously this term, I was disappointed Tamfana couldn’t do better Arc weekend. She was weak in the market so did she need her first start in a long while? At her best isn’t out of this, but needs to find a lot in a couple of weeks and possibly would’ve liked it softer.
Alakazi is one with different form lines. Shouldn’t really be good enough but I can see him outrunning his odds for an in form Johnny Murtagh.
The (forgotten) Lion In Winter was only a neck behind Rosallion in the Moulin last time. On that line of form TLIW deserves to be a lot shorter today. But the Hannon horse was probably quite a bit below his best there in a muddling race. Rosallion hasn’t been at his 2024 best all season. Albeit the sectionals shown at Goodwood strongly hint he’s still capable of it…
However, Field Of Gold is probably a better horse at their bests. The Gosden horse is much better than he showed at Goodwood. In all probability didn’t handle the course. We know from his excellent St James’s Palace he acts well at Ascot. Progressive prior to the Sussex and could still be the outstanding racehorse he looked like turning into early on in the season – especially as the going is not soft. That said, if he is that good, would the money have come for Carl Spackler? CP was one of the very best American milers last year and disappointed for his short term Aussie trainer earlier on in the year. In truth they were better performances than it appeared, having pulled his chance away. If settling well and… Now on first start for the in form Gosden yard…
My two main bets are the Gosden pair.
Value Is EverythingAlmaqam was high on my shortlist of Champions Day horses who could cause an upset, but that was primarily due to (on this day each year) the expected soft ground. Can’t see him doing it on tomorrow’s surface.
Almeric is one who might improve, but imo has quite a lot of progression to make. I don’t see why he should be the same price as Economics. The Haggas horse hasn’t been seen on course since bleeding when only 6th at only 2/1 in last year’s race. Obviously a chance he’ll need it, but his trainer has won top races in the past first time out and Economics record fresh is good. imo The price of 15/1 makes it worth taking a chance.
This meeting is often a favourite’s graveyard, but that is normally because of soft going and / or the trainers of favourites being out of form. So – other than Economics – am afraid I do see this as a three horse race – on firmer ground and both Graffard and The Gosdens in fine form.
Calandagan’s most impressive performance was in the King Ed (a Group 1 performance in a Group 2 – it was so good)… And that – along with the King George – came on a sound surface which probably suit Calandagan’s action and turn of foot better than the ground he faced in last year’s contest.
Delacroix’s eclipse of Ombudsman at Sandown came after the latter had a comparatively short gap after a particularly hard race at Royal Ascot. Ombudsman seemingly making a race winning move before (on race sectionals) faltering and having no answer to Delacroix’s late surge. Other horses slowing down faster than the O’Brien horse possibly gave a false impression. ie Delacroix himself was slowing down. Fractions shown in the POW and International pretty much confirm Ombudsman has the most speed and I am pretty certain is the better horse of the pair. That said, there’s not much in it. The 3 1/2 lengths winning margin in the York race probably flatters Ombudsman.
Ombudsman currently available @ 15/8 (36.4%), Calandagan 3/1 (25%) and Delacroix 9/2 (18.2%).
Ombudsman has the best chance, but does he really have as much as double the chance of Delacroix?
Value Is Everything
