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OMBUDSMAN 5/1
Ascot show what a horse he is won on soft in France to and with horses near him in the market likely go arc. And AOB has a rotten record in race I think can end year in style
Whirl 16-1.
Stable obviously has a million options, but I suspect she will bypass Longchamp (Lambourn, Minnie Hauk, Los Angeles, Jan Brueghel, etc) and come here.
I was expecting to bet Economics for this, but the 25-1 has swayed me towards Tornado Alert. I’m happy with that price
If they all still declared next weekend should be some race
I’ll be on DelacroixVF x
Ombudsman for me.
Had a nice break and ground going to be fine. Will be a further 3 pound better off with Delacroix next week having beaten him last time.
I think we can discount the juddmonte form as being reliable imho so to me delacroix still the one to beat. Economics could be the surprise package. On the current going and a well run race delacroix has the superior speed. My only worry is the Irish champion was a tough race. I can see it being very tight.
“I think we can discount the juddmonte form as being reliable imho so to me delacroix still the one to beat.”
I think the Eclipse form is more unreliable. Turnaround too quick for Ombudsman, he got worked up beforehand, yet he only went down a neck giving Delacroix 10 pounds and next Saturday he is 6 pounds better off. Both had a 6 week break going into the Juddmonte and Ombudsman won, imo he was the best horse going into it and I backed him accordingly as I didn’t trust the Eclipse form. Delacroix done me a good turn by franking the form winning in Ireland where I backed him. Some people talk about Delacroix’s superior speed but Ombudsman isn’t slow Gosden wasn’t going to run him in this on soft ground. Of course Delacroix could beat him if Ombudsman is a little off on the day or there are some ‘AOB tactics trickery messing Ombudsman up’, but on what I’ve seen on the track so far and the weight adjustments it’s Ombudsman for me.
Pride Of Arras seems to have “benefitted” from being gelded so would be my pick if he shows on the day.
The more I know the less I understand.
Update on RP website…
John and Thady Gosden look set to repeat the gameplan which served their top colt Ombudsman so well in the Juddmonte International at York, with a pacemaker “likely” to be added into the field for the Group 1 Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot.
The 7-4 market leader is set to be joined by his stablemate and fellow Godolphin three-year-old Devil’s Advocate in the field for the 1m2f showpiece at a cost of £75,000.
Devil’s Advocate is no mug himself and has a BHA rating of 109 after winning a 1m2f handicap at Doncaster last time out and has been leading Ombudsman in much of his recent homework.The weight change is just standard weight for age at the different points in the season. Delacroix in theory should be a more mature horse now than he was in the Eclipse so he gets less weight now. I wouldnt be seeing this as a two horse race to be honest Economics and Calandagan are no mugs. Always get some funny results on Champions Day in part because of the ground which should be fine this year but even then some with the form are over the top.
Have just this minute backed ALMAQAM e/w at 16/1 as I am not sure this is the three horse race everyone seems to think it is
I’m also in the Almaqam camp here, and I’ve also taken 16-1 ew, I think that that’s very generous
Almaqam was high on my shortlist of Champions Day horses who could cause an upset, but that was primarily due to (on this day each year) the expected soft ground. Can’t see him doing it on tomorrow’s surface.
Almeric is one who might improve, but imo has quite a lot of progression to make. I don’t see why he should be the same price as Economics. The Haggas horse hasn’t been seen on course since bleeding when only 6th at only 2/1 in last year’s race. Obviously a chance he’ll need it, but his trainer has won top races in the past first time out and Economics record fresh is good. imo The price of 15/1 makes it worth taking a chance.
This meeting is often a favourite’s graveyard, but that is normally because of soft going and / or the trainers of favourites being out of form. So – other than Economics – am afraid I do see this as a three horse race – on firmer ground and both Graffard and The Gosdens in fine form.
Calandagan’s most impressive performance was in the King Ed (a Group 1 performance in a Group 2 – it was so good)… And that – along with the King George – came on a sound surface which probably suit Calandagan’s action and turn of foot better than the ground he faced in last year’s contest.
Delacroix’s eclipse of Ombudsman at Sandown came after the latter had a comparatively short gap after a particularly hard race at Royal Ascot. Ombudsman seemingly making a race winning move before (on race sectionals) faltering and having no answer to Delacroix’s late surge. Other horses slowing down faster than the O’Brien horse possibly gave a false impression. ie Delacroix himself was slowing down. Fractions shown in the POW and International pretty much confirm Ombudsman has the most speed and I am pretty certain is the better horse of the pair. That said, there’s not much in it. The 3 1/2 lengths winning margin in the York race probably flatters Ombudsman.
Ombudsman currently available @ 15/8 (36.4%), Calandagan 3/1 (25%) and Delacroix 9/2 (18.2%).
Ombudsman has the best chance, but does he really have as much as double the chance of Delacroix?
Value Is Everything
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