Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Its not how much or how little information you use. What is important is whether the overall market is factoring the same information as you are.
Whats important is your ability to make an accurate set of probabilities from this information and also the efficiency of the market.
Your success is dependent on your mathematical expectation.E(x) = ODDS x P(W) – P(L)
Expectation = Odds multiplied by your probability of winning minus your probability of losing
All systems converge to a single bet expectation. It is mathematically impossible to discover a betting method that will overcome a negative expectation
The returned SP’s don’t neccessarily reflect the fair odds line of every horses chance in the race, there are generally inefficiences in the market
If you were able to accurately process every given variable, however significant or insignificant, present in the environment of a horse race, and could then deduce a true odds line that was statistically accurate to 95% for a sample size of say 10,000 races…..well,you would be very good..
The article says there were 8 ‘experienced’ handicappers….experienced in what way? losing? they have bus passes? reformed narcotic addicts ?
Just a wild suggestion….but maybe they didn’t understand the significance of /how to process the variables at their disposal and hence couldn’t accurately assign an accurate probability to each horses chances.
Kind of off topic….
Article from the South China Morning Post the other day
Hard to compare jurisdictions I know but what result would have prevailed in the UK do you guys reckon ?
$20,000HK = €1800 = £1600 British approx
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Saint-Martin goes out with guns blazing
‘Sacked’ Frenchman attacks ClubAlan Aitken
An unrepentant Eric Saint-Martin plans to quit riding after failing yesterday at his second "show cause" hearing before the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s licensing committee.
Saint-Martin’s 15 brilliant seasons in Hong Kong have been punctuated with running battles with authority and he survived a show cause in February after an improper riding charge late last year, but the latest infraction arising from a charge of failing to obey a stewards’ directive was a bridge too far for the committee.The 43-year-old Frenchman had been requested to act as a witness at a careless riding inquiry at Sha Tin early last month but returned to his apartment next to the course. Upon his return to the inquiry, dressed in beachwear, stewards were unimpressed with his jovial response when asked why he had left and he was fined HK$20,000 for misconduct and stood down from riding.
Saint-Martin later pleaded guilty to a rule breach and was suspended for one month. At the same time, he submitted his application to return for next season.
The winner of 431 races in Hong Kong, Saint-Martin said yesterday he had planned to retire at the end of this season in any case but was disappointed at its conclusion.
"A groin injury has been bothering me again lately, I think physically another season was not possible, and I had already decided to finish and return to my businesses in France," he said. "But I am very disappointed at how this has been handled – what they have shown me is the Jockey Club is totalitarian rule and they don’t give a **** about anyone. That’s why people don’t want to come and ride here any more.
"They could have allowed me to finish the season – as it is, I have to wait for my children to finish school before we leave – but it was a matter of face to them, to sack me rather than end it nicely. After so many years, it was hard. I never did drugs. I never pulled up any horse. Still they treat me like a criminal.
"They don’t communicate with the jockeys, they don’t talk to you – you are expected to keep in step the same as everyone else, regimented. But nobody can tell me how to live – if I had to do it all again, I would. I always hold my ground."
Saint-Martin’s ejection from the jockey roster and the inclusion of two new riders for next season, South African Greg Cheyne, 32, and Australian William Pike, 23, were the main news items to emerge from yesterday’s committee hearing.
Apart from Saint-Martin and Mark du Plessis – who had previously announced he would not apply – the only current jockey not among next season’s licensees is local freelancer Paul Lo Pak-hin, while the club gave the green light for Kevin Leung Ka-wai to join Me Tsui Yu-sak’s stable as a 10-pound claimer.
Cheyne, a winner of over 1,000 races including six Group Ones, is sitting third on the South African championship and leading the Eastern Cape championship, a title he has won twice. He has advised a riding weight of 114 pounds, as has the "boy wonder" of racing in Western Australia, Pike. Emerging from a successful apprenticeship to become Perth’s champion rider, Pike has won over 750 races, two Group Ones, and is heading for another Perth title this season.
How much do these national newspaper tipsters get paid?
Less than the .5 to 1% pro players .
More than the 95% (at least) net losing recreational players.
The Filly is the best horse in the race, she also has the potential to bounce to the moon.
I’ll be betting Rachel Alexandra and Big Drama at a nice price
I would have preferred Murtagh onboard, but maybe it will work out positively… Coupled with the beating in France last time, Mastercraftsman may be able to go for a walk in the market here….
Outside of him I like Delegator,
Finjaan was a good looking horse last year,
Sea The Stars had some quality about him also, with time he could go well…. the same applies to Rip Van Winkle.This being the last 2yo race of the season, Mastercraftsman has the scores on the doors
For the bettor, the interview told you that the jock was a little up his own ass – not necessarily a bad thing…
A businessman and will often be on something with a chance. Articulate for a jockey, I’d presume owners find him personable.
Not a bad thread referring to the said jock, and the overall standard of his modern day brethern the other day on Betfair.
Irish forum, see: ”The really great jockeys”I don’t know if there is any way, as an individual, to avoid this outcome ?
You can mix up your play a little, but over time it’s obviously pretty hard to stay cool and be in profit. Of course, you don’t necessarily need to be in profit for a bookmaker to say ‘no dice’…
Theres a story about Tommy Hyland in Atlantic City from a while back.
He dressed as Santa Claus on Christmas eve, then went into Harrahs ,( where he had already been thrown out twice before, the third time they would arrest for tresspassing), and started firing off at the blackjack table. There were a couple of other plain clothes guys playing aggressively too, and one of the floorstaff was heard saying on the phone,”I got a guy betting two hands of a thousand down here. Another on purple chips ,and Santa Claus is going really crazy ! ”
Of course he got thrown out, but his identity wasn’t discovered until later…
I’d be happy enough taking the Johnston horse to be on my side in the race, Haashed looked pretty good in winning his maiden.
It seems a good race, probably no Quality Road or Old Fashioned etc. in here all the same
I’m an RUK subscriber but probably get more out of ATR to be honest.
The Irish angle is covered quite well.
Get On is a decent programme where the presenters, are, in general, knowledgable and probe well.
The FREE online video content is a fantastic resource, regardless of whatever faults the channel may/may not have.
I don’t care how often Gary O’Brien and Leon Blanche play footsie together, that content is golden !Thanks for the comments lads.
The first two seem decent. Followtheplan ran respectably aswell and is prob worth a shot at an Arkle on decent ground.
Imperial Call, I’m in agreement re: Townend, a decent young jock, himself and Danny Mullins are the cream of the young Irish riders coming through at the moment, both look to have big careers ahead of them
