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It doesent look likely that I’ll make 10 selections now:( . Thought I still had a slight chance before Walters Destiny didnt bother with Wincanton. With none today either, I need 7 in a week, a slight hope perhaps.:)
It would seem I have no morals either, nor do I care what people think of me when it comes to making a few quid. If I had the chance to do it, I’d do it, no two ways about it.
If people are stupid enough to bet in running then they’re going to lose that cash anyway (one way or another). After all, what is anybody that places a bet trying to do if they’re not trying to relieve another punter of their dosh, and theres nothing better than backing a dead cert.
Is there such a thing as bad publicity in this instance, or is it just publicity. I cant see how it could affect Barry from a buisness standpoint. I wouldnt have thought that people wont bet with him because of this, infact the reverse is likely to happen.
Maybe Barry made those quotes to add to his image. After all, are’nt bookmakers supposed to be loveable rouges, that keep you going back time and time again in an attempt to sting them with your "good thing".
As it happens, I’ve never thought about the name Barry Dennis so many times as I have whilst writing this (its working).
Be warned though Barry, I’m going to sting you hard and fast at Donny come the spring. I’ll be bringing the wheelbarrow!:biggrin:
I think you should be "equally" concerned about SR as obtaining value. Everyones in such a hurry these days:biggrin:
Food or Fashion? You get both from a cow, this will justify leather wearing to some.<br> Does it matter? If you stick a small insect under a micrscope and have a look, you’ll see that mama natures beauty is in all shapes and sizes. Only a handfull of nutters walk around clearing their paths with a brush, and even then, they’ll be crunching the odd thing to DEATH.:biggrin:  ÂÂÂ
You kill it, I’ll eat it.;) or wear it if I like the cut.
(Edited by CPGagie at 11:09 am on Sep. 23, 2004)
Agree, much better to use 9 stone than 10. I didnt know you used 75, I thought you’d said class C. I didnt rate down, only up, upto GP1 and used each race class as an inferior guide so to speak. Seems sensible to rate down aswell I suppose. Any reason why you went with 75 and not 90 for instance?
Just forget my assumption on Haydock for a minute will you:biggrin: 4:30am here, and I’m looking at somthing else AGAIN!:biggrin:
OK, after a bit of messing about I’ve come up with the following, Ive turned them into a poundage format.
Premier Fantasy 84+<br>Solar Power 80<br>Saadigg 76+<br>Goodbye Mr Bond 85
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(Edited by CPGagie at 8:22 pm on Sep. 5, 2004)
I’ve gone through Friday at Haydock, and have only rough SF’s at the moment due to Raceform Interactive not updating properley(doing my bloody head in). Anyway, I’m pretty much in agreement with Prufrock but, I’m reluctant to award different G.A’s to the round course that is of any great significance. Goodbye Mr Bond’s race they came from behind, I’m left with the feeling they cut each others throats a little, possibly to the extent of about 3 – 3.5 lengths. I’ve actually knocked off .65 secs per mile from that race, that still gives it a decent time for the grade considering they were pretty exposed. I also have Saadigg as producing a nippy time for the grade and with obviously more to come, is the one that would interest me from the day.
EC, What is the average OHR of the average class C? You said that you par to class C when formulating standards, yet you par to the OHR when compiling G.A’s.<br>I see that the class C range when taken at an average will put you about in the middle but, at what OHR. Might it be only 93, or 97 perhaps. Put another way, are there more 0-100’s than there are 0-90’s, and how many 95’s.
:biggrin: Nick if you only knew. I was having a great time, Gatwicks maiden did me proud, had a couple of other nice touches. Then I just got a bit too cocky for my own good and started looking for things that werent really there. I took a pull about a week ago to stop all the fruits of my labour going down the drain. I’ve now seen the error of my ways. I wont be having a bet until I’m really doing the wifes nut in about one, or phoning my Mother and telling her to slap some down. Thats the plan anyway:biggrin: I "bet" you I can be disiplined enough:biggrin:
I just love to go against the hype in top class Nick, and horses putting in a whoooshka SF in say a 3yo class D maiden(more so if its a blanket finish) and coming up the ranks, how many winners can you get out of a couple of those? Priceless!:cool: They’re about finished at this time of year though. Maybe grab a couple of 2yo’s and a couple of others I’ve been waiting for, and thats about it. Thats my season over anyway.<br> No rush!:biggrin:
I couldnt agree more John, class C+. You just know your on thin ice dipping into class D’s and it gets thinner the further down you go. Prize money worth working towards or prestige has to be the safest route.
Why does it have to be a shorter priced selection. I’ve been equally confident about 20/1 priced horses as I have been 3/1 priced. They’ve both been long odds on in my mind. Get the strike rate right and the value takes care of itself, ok, thats not a hard rule, but you get my drift.
Ian, I would stake the same % of my bank regardless of price and be happy with the extra return for the same risk.
Its all just word play. I call a "possibly" unlucky bet, a bad bet because it lost me money and lowered my strike rate. Others call it a good bet because it "might" have won and they were in the ball park.<br>Where does that attitude get me? On to the next race and not dwelling on past results..<br>What does it teach me? Nothing. I’d know the horse is "potentially" good for a few more lengths etc, regardless of if I had backed it or not.
I wouldnt take the 1000/1 either. I’ll only place a bet if I think the selection will win, or return a profit, and I’m as sure as I can be about it. I wouldnt even have a daft tenner on it to be honest. I stick to a set percentage, if I knew a horse was a genuine 20/1 shot and you offered me 100/1 I’d turn the bet down. I’m equally concerned about my strike rate as I am value.
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A run of results should be classed colectivley as one bet in this instance, so in that sense it would be a winning bet, not a losing one.<br>The coin toss is a bad example imo Ian, as you know the true odds to be evens, but in betting it can only ever be an opinion. Just out of curiosity, would you have more on a coin toss at 6/4 than at 5/4?
We’ll agree to disagree then. You started it though:biggrin: ;) <br>I do see where your coming from. I had an experience similar with Tudor Bell, backed it at 25’s when it was a short head 2nd, had gone EW but, reflecting back after its recent 4/1 win I could say that it reppresented decent value for the win element when it was 25’s. I did take a chance on the distance and a couple of other things though, suppose I’ll never know the true odds for it that day as the hot fav flopped.
Nick, is that not just self consolidation. I’m sure we all have thoughts like "oh well, at least I was in the ball park" and "its nice to know that I havent gone too far wrong with my figures".<br> The fact is though, the bet lost, and as it turned out the value was bad from that bet from the start. Maybe that given re-runs of the race the 20/1 shot would have won after a few more tries. Then again it could have just run the best race it ever will.
