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Hi Mark,
If we are to get anywhere with this conversaion you need to separate differing issues and let’s discuss them one at a time. Your statements are too mixed with completely differing topics. Value, Probability, Assumption of what I think etc. etc.
I entered this forum not to convince everyone that their methods are wrong nor that my method is right. In fact I didn’t intend to convince anyone of anything. I just wanted good debate.
It is just that the method I discovered is so simple and doesn’t get shrouded with some of this issues you appear to hold so dear and seem to think therefore must be set in stone.
As I stated early on, I decided to look at this from a completely unbiased and untainted viewpoint and I truly believe this approach is what led me to my discovery.
Apart from my own there are many methods out there that consistently make money over a period of time and to say that they can’t without proven factual knowledge is probably to say that you havn’t had the good fortune to find one yet.
I make a living from what I do… FACT, I could afford to take a 5 year sojourn FACT, I don’t use the "general" biased, tainted and sometimes downright misleading knowledge base that the majority do FACT.
I am different, that’s just the way it is and I believe that there will be many more like me emerging over the next few years. The scenario has changed and anyone who doesn’t wake up and smell the new roses will be left behind.
But then that’s just my OPINION.
I could be wrong in this but I think that is sad! I really do. What it seems you are saying, in a round about way, is you number crunch and have no real interest in racing itself as such.
Not what I am saying at all… I no longer number crunch as the method has been found. I do record everything I do for further analysis at later stages still however. I do have an interest in racing and enjoy many exciting days at racecourses at home and abroad. But my enjoyment of racing is a seperate issue to making money from it.
I’m not saying you can’t make money doing what you are doing but I personally would be bored to tears. The pressure of watching every day for a certain kind of race and betting horses I don’t know the first thing about is not my idea of fun.
I am not bored, there is NO pressure and my family and I have more FUN than you can shake a stick at!
There is no such a thing as a fool proof sytem and most people who try one go skint.
I have never said what I do is "foolproof" I just said that it works and very well.
Now you think some odds compilers don’t understand mathematics?
A bookmaker is not "selling what is 100% probable at a bigger price" because he is not dealing in 100% facts. Yes, a bookie will be working to an over round so can make a profit whichever horse wins. But equally there will be occasions when he has made a mistake on an individuals chance of winning, and it is up to us punters to find that individual.No, I never said that and yes he is! If you can’t grasp that then how on earth can you make an opinion on a race.
Every horse does not have the same chance of coming down as an ace. A horses chance is not certain (not fact) so a punter can only form an educated opinion.
Yes it does or we would all disappear into a black hole. You are confusing too many things into one statement and then trying to justify your position. I have no position so can only argue with proven facts. If I toss a coin heads can come up just as tails can so they have the same chance. If I then offer you differing odds I am now selling you 100% probability at differing prices… i.e. a bookmaker.
To have an idea of probability in racing you need to have an idea of the form of each horse; so you can come to a subjective opinion to their chance of winning. i.e. Value.
Sorry, but that is just absolute tosh. Value is a completely different subject to probability and cannot be melded into one application.
I note Caledon, you did not answer my question:
Do you use true odds / the table of odds and chances?
You seemed to ignore it, or may be it is you who does not understand.Sorry, I must have missed that question… the only time I look at odds is when I refer to value and purely for the reason of establishing how much profit I want to win from a race… they do not affect me or influence me whatsoever when deciding if a race meets the method criteria.
With regard to understanding, hang on a minute, let me just go check a piece of paper, ah yes thought so . It says 1st Class Degree in Mathematics! So I beg to differ but I think I do
Ginge
I think what Caledon is saying is that a bookmaker takes something that has a 100% probability ie that one of the horses will win the race and then prices up to include a percentage for himself. It is, of course, possible for a bookmaker to price up a race in a way where the price offered about a particular horse is greater than your (subjective) view of the horse’s chance of winning but a good bookmaker should be able to price a race so that whichever horse wins he still makes a profit (that’s the whole point of the overround).
I think that what Caledon is doing is taking a mathematical certainty (that there will be a winner) and then calculating ex post facto the actual probability of a horse winning.
Morning Tuffers,
Man you are very perceptive…. why you havn’t stumbled on my method seems strange. Everything you seem to think is pointing you in the right direction
… resulting in an (not sure of the term) over….of 130%, greatly favouring the bookmakers.
Hi Ken,
The terminology you were looking for was Over Round.
I actually saw that myself today and wrily smirked. I do agree but it isn’t a level playing field but there are swings and roundabouts. Like the bookmaker, now retired and smiling his fat face on TV occassionaly who laughed at me when I wanted £??? at 33/1, said to be kind to me he would give me 50’s and then cryed when I handed him the winning ticket.
Some we win some we lose and it can be really frustrating especially when it is done right in front of you… even Dick Turpin wore a mask they say
If 100% books have nothing to do with probability then why have bookmakers odds compilers always do the same thing?
A bookmaker does not know the definate probability of each horse, he can only take an educated view. As we punters do.
Hi Mark,
You seem to have a strange view on mathematics… is it maybe that you don’t understand? All, and I stress ALL, a bookmaker does is sell what is 100% probable at a bigger price…. all the odds compilers in the world can’t change a proven mathematical fact. This is not my opinion, although I concur, but beyond any reasonable doubt a true fact.
Odds Compilers, Form Makers, Tipsters, anyone who trys to influence beting without a sound understanding of the true nature of mathematics is purely in business because the masses have been brainwashed into believing they are a necessity.
If horse A beats horse B by 2 lengths at level weights, then the two reoppose two weeks later under identical conditions; I am more likely to back horse B.
Why?
Because the "form experts" will write off B and his chance is likely to be better than the betting implies (VALUE). Of course you Fist will probably be one of those "form experts" who have seen it with their own form book (eyes).Hi Mark,
This has absolutely nothing to do with, or has any effect on the simple probability of the outcome. It is pure speculation, an interpretation of form, that will always leave you scratching your head wondering what went wrong!Form is not just a matter of rating or how far one beat the other anyway. Form is temperament, distance, going, draw, jumping ability, held up or races prominently, sweats or gets on edge, jockeyship, trainer form, headgear and anything else relevant to a horses performance.
Oh Dear… more to needlessly concern yourself with!
After studying a race you still have to look at whether any horse you consider betting is value or not. You don’t have to work out a 100% tissue if you don’t want to but you need an idea of value.
Again, ask 100 people to give you a reason why they think something is "value" and you will likely get 78.4% different answers, This again has nothing to with the probable outcome and is very subjective.
The big advantage of an approach like yours is it completely removes the subjectivity that dogs the punting decisions of the rest of us.
Exactly… sometimes you just can’t see the wood for the trees
Obviously, I’m not expecting you to reveal your own system but I’d be interested to know what data source you used to crunch the numbers (if that doesn’t give too much away) and whether you used any proprietory software to do the crunching or something anyone can buy off the shelf.
Initially the person who asked me to do the work for him purchased 20 years of data from a source. I believe it was the Racing Post or maybe Timeform but don’t quote me. I designed an Excel Spreadsheet and did all my work from that. I have added to this with further data and continue to do this on a fairly regular basis to keep up to date. From there it was just a case of developing my own queries and getting results in a workable format.
I have looked at proprietory software, RSB springs to mind, but the queries allowed are too generic and tend to be exactly what a racing type person would look for. I have a copy and have yet to work out how to query my methods with it because I cant ask the questions I want.
I have purchased Bet Angel Pro this afternoon and it has an Excel interface so now I have set he method up to work automatically
I’m not too sure it isn’t a little impolite of us to be questioning Caledon’s system in too much detail. After all, he is a new member and we don’t want to scare him off. If I had a golden formula, I doubt whether I’d be keen to reveal it publicly.
I imagine Caledon’s lying in his sun lounger in the Bahamas having a wee
chuckle to himself.
If there is a ‘set in concrete’ approach, with no deviation, then I would have thought it would be straightforward designing a computer programme to place the bets as and when, leaving Caledon to continue soaking up the sun.Hi Ken,
I wouldn’t reveal what I do for any amount of money, not that I reckon it would drastically effect the markets if a few people knew. For all I know there may be someone or many doing what I do!Strange you should mention the "computer programme" I have re-thought the exchange comment I made after a little test run and have now purchased Bet Angel
this afternoon and spent a few hours programming the excel interface to do just that…. now I can do this anywhere in the world with a laptop and wireless connection… that Bahamas scenario sounds real tempting.
I’m sure if you crunch enough numbers you can find circumstances where you can consistently take advantage of the fact that favourites in maidens tend to be overbet.
Hi Tuffers,
Excellent idea… that’s exactly what I did… crunch numbers. I am delighted with the response so far and it looks like we have created at least one new system for everyone lol
Glad to see that at least some people are open to new ideas and are at least willing to throw the books in the corner for a moment and do some investigation without prejudices.
But seriously, thats all I do… "consistently take advantage of the facts" proven, no questions asked and the data is out there for anyone to find… but I reckon the chances of someone putting together a 1000 piece jigsaw exactly the same way I did are remote to say the least and not odds I would be interested in
I would hazard a guess that you are backing either just the favourite or possibly both the first two in the market in maiden races when the prices of the fav/first two in the market are equal to a certain percentage of the total book. You refer to a value criterion as well so possibly you then only have a bet if there is a certain margin between the average price and the biggest price available for the fav/first two.
Am I warm?
Hi Tuffers,
Interesting scenario but I have just ran some data and this would produce way too many runners with copious amounts of odds on favourites representing little or no value. I guess this could be refined further though.I’m afraid you are only right in so far that you have broken the market down to race type and then whether their is value or not. But only very luke warm.
Is his the method that you use?
The only way I can see you being able to do this without looking at form is by using someone else who has looked at form. So if you don’t pay for tipsters, the only way of doing this is to use free information.
Hi Mark,
I don’t use tipsters and I don’t use free information…. both invalid data sources in my opinion.
Would I be right in saying you use bookmakers odds compilers for this?
Again, no. I have no connections to this sort of data.
If so, it is very similar to a successful method I devised myself. With this method I don’t use exchanges much either. Because it compares bookmakers prices in a mathematical way.?
I doubt it but who knows you could be right.
…so just out of interest whats going to win the 2000gns?
Does your "Formula" ever dissagree with your gut reaction?Hi,
Sorry, I wouldn’t have a clue and probably not a race that would fit my criteria. As for gut instinct, I never disagree with the data…. it is void of emotion and seldom makes the wrong call… me, well I would go bust in 10 minutes if I had to make choices
Hmmmm,
Just seen your comment that you do not do this pro-gambling by ratings or form.
How else can it be done Caledon?
And has this mathematical approach got anything to do with true odds / the table of odds and chances?
In my opinion any successful punter has to study the form and find the value selection/s. Do you know a different way?
May be you can give us an idea of the way you come to your selection without ratings or form analysis.
Mark
Hi,
My approach to horse racing came via a request from a friend who knew I gambled for a living in the casinos playing BlackJack…. he wanted to know if I could devise a system the same as I used but purely for horse racing. I said I would have a look and within weeks I told him that it would be impossible to beat horse racing the same way I beat the casinos… but there was hope and I sort of had a plan that needed further investigation.You should realise that my approach to horse racing will never be the same as yours and after having read most of the posts in here I wonder how you guys sleep at night with all your thoughts about statistics, form ratings etc…
I am convinced the only subject you need to master is probability and how to manipulate data correctly… my methods produced a 10 yr average of 78% strike rate with a 32% ROI and having checked the last 5 years data before starting again this has not changed. You will say this is a licence to print money… well yes it is that’s why I don’t tell how I do it, sell tips, or subscriptions… my hard work to discover it and therefore my rewards…. why am I not exceedingly rich…well I have no desire other than to be able to afford all my family needs to live comfortably… GREED is the downfall of many a gambler… I also donate 10% of everything I earn to charity.
How it’s done… simply I have devised a race selection criteria, then a value criteria and if those two conditions are met then it’s a bet and if not… well on to the next day… NO form, NO Ratings… NOTHING ELSE… I will have around 100 or so bets a year depending on weather etc.
How I do things is completely different I know and hard to grasp but I was never involved in racing before I started on this path and therefore I am not conditioned to all that goes with it. To quote a famous song….I dit it MY WAY!
Hi pod,
Good post and I appreciate the "ring rusty" scenario but it can’t affect me because my method is based on pure mathematical fact and in my horse racing world a bet either IS or ISN’T with no external influnces to think about… so with just that to consider I have nothing new to get up to speed with which induce error. It should be the same as it was from day one of my career…. I have also checked the last 5 years of data whilst waiting to restart my method and no significant change has been detected.
Your statement… "punting like life, isn’t a race. It’s about negotiating a way from one end to the other no matter how much time one is ultimately given to do it." hits all the bells for me and I have set a 10 year plan again and this will provide a steady weekly income and hopefully enough to take another wonderful 5 years off again. People who try to achieve things quickly very rarely succeed and give racing tipsters a reason to live. Greed is always the downfall if that is your main purpose in life.
Can’t say I know of anyone coming on saying they are a pro gambler who were genuine so you can’t blame the guys if they are immediately suspicious.
Hi There…
Well you can’t blame a guy for defending his honour
As I said, I just wanted some polite discussion as it can be very lonely doing things all on your own. Please remember that I didn’t state I just invest in horse racing… I do have other strings to my bow that keep the wolves from the door.
Are you seriously saying that there are no other members of this forum who make a living from gambling? I find that hard to believe… or are you saying that no one admits to being a gambler like I did. Having read my initial post again, I guess I maybe shouldn’t have made such a bold statement…. but I believe that honesty is the best policy and of speaking my mind.
I would have thought that a mathematical approach is best utilised as a better/layer on the exchanges, but you seem not to favour them. Strange?
Because if you just use the bookies then your decimal point will always be in the wrong column.The mathematics was used as an aid in developing my methodology not in the actual working of it.
Well seems like I should throw it all away and rush to the exchanges where I will find what… oh yes bookies. Please don’t suppose to know how I do things and I would reckon that my decimal point will be just fine thanks.
