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Ginge
I think what Caledon is saying is that a bookmaker takes something that has a 100% probability ie that one of the horses will win the race and then prices up to include a percentage for himself. It is, of course, possible for a bookmaker to price up a race in a way where the price offered about a particular horse is greater than your (subjective) view of the horse’s chance of winning but a good bookmaker should be able to price a race so that whichever horse wins he still makes a profit (that’s the whole point of the overround).
I think that what Caledon is doing is taking a mathematical certainty (that there will be a winner) and then calculating ex post facto the actual probability of a horse winning.
If, for example you look at the history of every maiden run in the last ten years and the winner’s SP you may find a trend that certain horses win more often than their odds suggest they should. If that trend is a genuine feature of the market (as opposed to an artifact of backfitting trends to the data) then you could back horses of that type every time their price was bigger than what you know to be their historic probability of winning. You don’t need to have any knowledge of form whatsoever.
I haven’t crunched the numbers so don’t know whether such a reliable trend can be found but for the moment I’m convinced that Caledon has managed to find such a trend and is using it to his advantage.
I’m still convinced the most likely type of race for such a trend to exist is maidens and if I ever get the chance I might have a crack at crunching some numbers myself.
- Total Posts 17716
The big advantage of an approach like yours is it completely removes the subjectivity that dogs the punting decisions of the rest of us.
Exactly… sometimes you just can’t see the wood for the trees
Obviously, I’m not expecting you to reveal your own system but I’d be interested to know what data source you used to crunch the numbers (if that doesn’t give too much away) and whether you used any proprietory software to do the crunching or something anyone can buy off the shelf.
Initially the person who asked me to do the work for him purchased 20 years of data from a source. I believe it was the Racing Post or maybe Timeform but don’t quote me. I designed an Excel Spreadsheet and did all my work from that. I have added to this with further data and continue to do this on a fairly regular basis to keep up to date. From there it was just a case of developing my own queries and getting results in a workable format.
I have looked at proprietory software, RSB springs to mind, but the queries allowed are too generic and tend to be exactly what a racing type person would look for. I have a copy and have yet to work out how to query my methods with it because I cant ask the questions I want.
I have purchased Bet Angel Pro this afternoon and it has an Excel interface so now I have set he method up to work automatically
I could be wrong in this but I think that is sad! I really do. What it seems you are saying, in a round about way, is you number crunch and have no real interest in racing itself as such.
Apart from Cheltenham Aintree In 90% of the races I watch I don’t bet. 7% I will have a good bet on and that last 3% I will bet heavily on.
I love the sport and everything about it but I use paitience as my number one weapon. When something special comes along like Zarkava/Kauto Star/Master MInded/Binocular that is when I bet and make real money.
I’m not saying you can’t make money doing what you are doing but I personally would be bored to tears. The pressure of watching every day for a certain kind of race and betting horses I don’t know the first thing about is not my idea of fun.
I used to punt every other day until I got involved in racing from the inside. Traines and jockeys are the first people to tell you, if you bet every day you willl end up in financial trouble. There is no such a thing as a fool proof sytem and most people who try one go skint.
I quickly realises that of you have eg a 20,000 pounds budget for the season instead of having 200 bets you are much more likely to success by studying waitng and having 10 x 2,000 pound bets at the right time. You will also most likley increase your winning amout as well.
Of course we all have our own way but I reckon mines is a lot more fun than what you seem to be doing.
Ginge
I think what Caledon is saying is that a bookmaker takes something that has a 100% probability ie that one of the horses will win the race and then prices up to include a percentage for himself. It is, of course, possible for a bookmaker to price up a race in a way where the price offered about a particular horse is greater than your (subjective) view of the horse’s chance of winning but a good bookmaker should be able to price a race so that whichever horse wins he still makes a profit (that’s the whole point of the overround).
I think that what Caledon is doing is taking a mathematical certainty (that there will be a winner) and then calculating ex post facto the actual probability of a horse winning.
Morning Tuffers,
Man you are very perceptive…. why you havn’t stumbled on my method seems strange. Everything you seem to think is pointing you in the right direction
I note Caledon, you did not answer my question:
Do you use true odds / the table of odds and chances?
You seemed to ignore it, or may be it is you who does not understand.Mark
The silence is deafening.
Let me help you out Caledon.
Here is what I make of the 2000 Guineas.
2000 Guineas
4.75% 20/1 Ashram (+ 1.25% 16/1)
7.5% 13/1 Cityscape (+ 1.5% 10/1) *20/1 available
20% 4/1 Delegator (+ 2% 7/2)
11% 8/1 Evasive (+ 2% 13/2) * 10/1 available
2% 50/1 Finjaan (+ 1.25% 28/1)
5% 20/1 Gan Amhras (+ 1.5% 15/1)
0.05% 2000/1 Imperial Guest (+ 0.2 400/1)
4.75% 20/1 Lord Shanekill (+ 1% 16/1)
18% 9/2 Mastercraftsman (+ 2% 4/1) * 6.8/1 available
0.75% 132/1 Monitor Closely (+ 0.75% 66/1)
Non Runner On Our Way ———————–
2.5% 40/1 Ouqba (+ 1.25% 25/1)
0.2% 500/1 Pure Poetry (+ 0.3% 200/1)
18% 9/2 Rip Van Winkle (+ 2% 4/1)
5.5% 18/1 Sea The Stars (+ 1.75% 13/1)% chance, equivalent odds, horse name (what my mark up would be if I was a bookie betting to 119%, equivalent odds I would offer).
Those highlighted are what I consider good bets at current odds.
Cityscape @ 20/1
Evasive @ 10/1
Mastercraftsman @ 6.8/1Though (excuse the aftertiming) am on ante-post Delegator @ 6/1, Cityscape @ 42/1, Evasive @ 18/1 and Crowded House (oops).
Value Is EverythingNow you think some odds compilers don’t understand mathematics?
A bookmaker is not "selling what is 100% probable at a bigger price" because he is not dealing in 100% facts. Yes, a bookie will be working to an over round so can make a profit whichever horse wins. But equally there will be occasions when he has made a mistake on an individuals chance of winning, and it is up to us punters to find that individual.No, I never said that and yes he is! If you can’t grasp that then how on earth can you make an opinion on a race.
Every horse does not have the same chance of coming down as an ace. A horses chance is not certain (not fact) so a punter can only form an educated opinion.
Yes it does or we would all disappear into a black hole. You are confusing too many things into one statement and then trying to justify your position. I have no position so can only argue with proven facts. If I toss a coin heads can come up just as tails can so they have the same chance. If I then offer you differing odds I am now selling you 100% probability at differing prices… i.e. a bookmaker.
To have an idea of probability in racing you need to have an idea of the form of each horse; so you can come to a subjective opinion to their chance of winning. i.e. Value.
Sorry, but that is just absolute tosh. Value is a completely different subject to probability and cannot be melded into one application.
I note Caledon, you did not answer my question:
Do you use true odds / the table of odds and chances?
You seemed to ignore it, or may be it is you who does not understand.Sorry, I must have missed that question… the only time I look at odds is when I refer to value and purely for the reason of establishing how much profit I want to win from a race… they do not affect me or influence me whatsoever when deciding if a race meets the method criteria.
With regard to understanding, hang on a minute, let me just go check a piece of paper, ah yes thought so . It says 1st Class Degree in Mathematics! So I beg to differ but I think I do
I could be wrong in this but I think that is sad! I really do. What it seems you are saying, in a round about way, is you number crunch and have no real interest in racing itself as such.
Not what I am saying at all… I no longer number crunch as the method has been found. I do record everything I do for further analysis at later stages still however. I do have an interest in racing and enjoy many exciting days at racecourses at home and abroad. But my enjoyment of racing is a seperate issue to making money from it.
I’m not saying you can’t make money doing what you are doing but I personally would be bored to tears. The pressure of watching every day for a certain kind of race and betting horses I don’t know the first thing about is not my idea of fun.
I am not bored, there is NO pressure and my family and I have more FUN than you can shake a stick at!
There is no such a thing as a fool proof sytem and most people who try one go skint.
I have never said what I do is "foolproof" I just said that it works and very well.
Now you think some odds compilers don’t understand mathematics?
A bookmaker is not "selling what is 100% probable at a bigger price" because he is not dealing in 100% facts. Yes, a bookie will be working to an over round so can make a profit whichever horse wins. But equally there will be occasions when he has made a mistake on an individuals chance of winning, and it is up to us punters to find that individual.No, I never said that and yes he is! If you can’t grasp that then how on earth can you make an opinion on a race.
Every horse does not have the same chance of coming down as an ace. A horses chance is not certain (not fact) so a punter can only form an educated opinion.
Yes it does or we would all disappear into a black hole. You are confusing too many things into one statement and then trying to justify your position. I have no position so can only argue with proven facts. If I toss a coin heads can come up just as tails can so they have the same chance. If I then offer you differing odds I am now selling you 100% probability at differing prices… i.e. a bookmaker.
Gingertipster writes
With a toss of a coin the odds are certain 50-50 or Evens (unless it’s bent) so the probability is certain. But with racing nobody knows for certain what the chances of the horses are. Therefore a bookmaker is not selling "100% probability".
To have an idea of probability in racing you need to have an idea of the form of each horse; so you can come to a subjective opinion to their chance of winning. i.e. Value.
Sorry, but that is just absolute tosh. Value is a completely different subject to probability and cannot be melded into one application.
Gingertipster writes
Value is an opinion of the probability.
I note Caledon, you did not answer my question:
Do you use true odds / the table of odds and chances?
You seemed to ignore it, or may be it is you who does not understand.Sorry, I must have missed that question… the only time I look at odds is when I refer to value and purely for the reason of establishing how much profit I want to win from a race… they do not affect me or influence me whatsoever when deciding if a race meets the method criteria.
Gingertipster writes
Eh? When you talk about value are we talking about the same thing? If odds "do not affect you or influence you", you mean you would still back a 4/1 horse even though you believe it to have a worse than 20% chance?
If you really do this then it was definately luck that allowed you to make a profit the first time around.With regard to understanding, hang on a minute, let me just go check a piece of paper, ah yes thought so . It says 1st Class Degree in Mathematics! So I beg to differ but I think I do
Gingertipster writes
Maybe you have.
You seem to believe that what has gone on in the past, with totally different horses effects greatly the fuuture. That does not fit in with my understanding of mathematics.
If the throw of a normal dice comes up 6 for five times in a row it is still only 5/1 it happening again on the next throw.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHi Mark,
If we are to get anywhere with this conversaion you need to separate differing issues and let’s discuss them one at a time. Your statements are too mixed with completely differing topics. Value, Probability, Assumption of what I think etc. etc.
I entered this forum not to convince everyone that their methods are wrong nor that my method is right. In fact I didn’t intend to convince anyone of anything. I just wanted good debate.
It is just that the method I discovered is so simple and doesn’t get shrouded with some of this issues you appear to hold so dear and seem to think therefore must be set in stone.
As I stated early on, I decided to look at this from a completely unbiased and untainted viewpoint and I truly believe this approach is what led me to my discovery.
Apart from my own there are many methods out there that consistently make money over a period of time and to say that they can’t without proven factual knowledge is probably to say that you havn’t had the good fortune to find one yet.
I make a living from what I do… FACT, I could afford to take a 5 year sojourn FACT, I don’t use the "general" biased, tainted and sometimes downright misleading knowledge base that the majority do FACT.
I am different, that’s just the way it is and I believe that there will be many more like me emerging over the next few years. The scenario has changed and anyone who doesn’t wake up and smell the new roses will be left behind.
But then that’s just my OPINION.
Hi Caledon.
Going back to your first post, I’m just wondering how your first day (1st May) back ‘in the saddle’ went? Apologies if that is too intrusive a question but regardless of all the technical huffing and puffing here I’d be pleased to hear that you’ve got off to a good start.
Cheers
KenWelcome to the forum, Caledon.
What I don’t understand is why you have joined a Horse Racing forum when you don’t seem to have much interest in the
Horse
, only the maths? Fair play to you for having a winning method of number crunching but as you won’t reveal the system (I certainly wouldn’t, either) then i’m not sure what you might contribute!
Another nosey question or two please, Caledon. Can your system be applied to all forms of gambling including virtual racing and football matches?
Secondly, in making the decision whether to bet or not, is that something that only you can choose by virtue of your own subjectivity or can your criteria be applied by anyone? If the latter, would it not be more profitable for you just to market the system?
Cheers
KenCALEDON, you can certainly talk the talk, but the proof of the pudding
is in the eating as they say, if you have an opinion on a race put it up for us all to see! Win lose or draw i am quite happy to share my opinion as you will no doubt have read! I am not asking you to divulge your system
in finding your selection but obviously you want to be seen as a creditable
contributor so lets see what your made of! I would hate your system to come up with "Evasive" for the 2000gns!!- Total Posts 17716
Probability? Value? Ratings? Stats? load of Bollocks!!!
These thing were maybe a good idea 20 years ago before every horse race was televised.
You want to make money spend your spare time watching every race you can.
What a tool that is visual form at the flick of a switch!
Maths, System you can keep. Toss them in the bin and use or your eyes?
The form book may say A beat B last time at levels by 2 lengths he gets 7lbs today and he’s a snip.
Only your eyes speak the truth.
.
Fist,You have just described what FORM is.
By looking at races and evaluating each race you have formed an opinion about each horse. Your own form book.
However, you can’t hold out much hope of analysing every race using only your own eyes. Unless you specialise by betting in a very small group. e.g. Two year old maidens. Even then there will be a few who have run in a Nursery; so you might have missed it.
A form book uses the eyes of other people you trust. Even if you watch every race, you can not hope to see how every horse behaved in the paddock.
I am not a slave to the form book, e.g. I believe Cityscape has a better chance of winning the 2000 G than my form book does. I used my own eyes.
If horse A beats horse B by 2 lengths at level weights, then the two reoppose two weeks later under identical conditions; I am more likely to back horse B.
Why?
Because the "form experts" will write off B and his chance is likely to be better than the betting implies (VALUE). Of course you Fist will probably be one of those "form experts" who have seen it with their own form book (eyes).Form is not just a matter of rating or how far one beat the other anyway. Form is temperament, distance, going, draw, jumping ability, held up or races prominently, sweats or gets on edge, jockeyship, trainer form, headgear and anything else relevant to a horses performance.
After studying a race you still have to look at whether any horse you consider betting is value or not. You don’t have to work out a 100% tissue if you don’t want to but you need an idea of value.
Mark
Why would I want to even try to pick the winner in every race or bet. I specalise in finding good horses and horses I think are overrated which leads to value. You make value a big issue but it takesme about 2 seconds to know if a horse is a decent price or not.
I never look at rating nor do I a make up spreadsheets or look at times ulsee I am in a debate about them or spend hours working out a horses chances on breeding. I find all these things a total waste of time and I am a lot more succful than most.
There are thousand upon thousands of people who have tried to make money out of racing uing these systems and aids and there for the most past flat broke.
For the most part those that do win don’t win enough to justify their time and would be a lot bettter of having a normal job and a decent family life, instead of burying their head in some spreadsheet 10 hours a day.
I would ask the starter of this thread: If you were a succesful pro gambler and your system worked why did you stop?
The Ante-Post King wrote to Caledon:
……you want to be seen as a creditable
contributor……Personally, I’m not concerned about Caledon’s credentials. It doesn’t matter one iota to me if Caledon is in actuality a dear old lady living in sheltered accomodation in Biggleswick. The main thing is that members stay around, engage in serious or light-hearted discussion and try to avoid personalities getting in the way of what should be, for most of us I think, a user-friendly forum for user-friendly opinions and generalities. I’m not sure anyone should feel obliged to prove their merit to anyone. But then perhaps I have a romanticised view of life.
KenCaledon,
You have said you want a discussion with other profit making punters yet express very little of what you do. Just it is all done mathematically. Without looking at: form, or anyone else that looks at form, the table of odds and chances or comparing odds.
Others, including myself have given something of what we look for (without telling everything.
Yet you give us nothing, give us a small glimpse of what these "data" and "facts" are you’re looking for. You can surely tell us a bit more without giving away your secrets.
I don’t want to come to the conclusion that you are a fantacist who just wants everyone elses knowledge.
So I won’t be wasting any more time continuing our "discussion", unless you come up with something that even suggests you know a little about our sport.
Best of luck with your 10 year project Caledon.
Mark
Value Is EverythingPersonally I am very interested in what knowledgable members think on racing issues.
Simon, Richard Hoiles, Rory, Jeremy, Alan, Lydia Hyslop, Rob and many many more are very knowledgable and am sure I can / have learnt from them. I thought Caledon was another, may be after his first post I was expecting too much.
Mark
Value Is EverythingMark, that’s a touch unfair to Caledon, I think. He never professed to know anything about horses, it was more to do with a return to professional gambling. You omitted at least one media personality from your list who is a member and contributor and who, in my humble opinion, stands head and shoulders above your ‘names’. I won’t name him/her for fear of embarassing him/her. The thing that I admire about all of them is that they manage to keep an interested distance and only post when they have a meaningful contribution to make, unlike the likes of myself who takes every opportunity to make a fool of myself.
Cheers
Ken
p.s. Our Biggleswiick friend is remarkably silent – must be bingo or knitting time!
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