Forum Replies Created
- Posts
What makes this thread so interesting is The Dark Knight’s assertion well before the off that Nimello was most unlikely to win the race and this, presumably not from the racecourse but from off-track!
If abnormalities in betting patterns like this can be spotted by the ordinary punter pre-race then surely alarm bells could be sounded straight away sufficiently loudly to alert JC security and have the animal thoroughly examined and, depending on the outcome, withdrawn. Or is that too sensible a solution?
Toodle pip!
Believe it or not Rory, Bertie had actually gleaned that himself from TDK’s post.
But thanks, nonetheless, and may I say that it’s always such a joy and a comfort to the old rogue in his alcohol-induced permanent stupor, to know that BB can count on the gentle, guiding hand of one of TRF’s most eminent, albeit self-appointed, resident wise men when the mathematics of successful gambling prove too taxing for what remains of his raddled old brain!
<br>Of slightly more import though is the, as yet,  unmet challenge I issued last week in response to the fanciful notion that it’s perfectly understandable that bookmakers  knock back EW wagers in 8-10 runner races where it’s two against a field of rags but with an obvious 3rd place at a big price.
I asked for a successful example, in advance, without the benefit of hindsight, of this punting paradise, which you  enthusiastically endorsed, and which  apparently has Britain’s bookies trembling and shaking their heads as one.  Alas, I’m still waiting for an opportunity to jump on this gravy train!
Any chance of enlightenment, Rory, or that other Greatest Living Forumite, Ian … please!
Humble Bertie salutes you both!
JC: best wishes for a speedy return to TRF.
John: Don’t think Admin will object to this one-off as it’s related to the EW Bandit theme.
Ian: to answer the question I posed, I think the EW value in the 7.00 Gdwd is Baraloti, a beaten favourite first time out who was practically left at the start. Plus, if likely favourite Tarbiyah is top-notch then how come Frankie can’t be bothered to ride it?
TDK: Strictly speaking, Flint River doesn’t conform to the criteria you outlined earlier.
I’m still waiting to be amazed at how easy it is to dupe those trusting bookie chappies!
Toodle pip!
Darkknight: No, Bertie has not missed the point. I was simply expressing surprise that so many TRF members, instead of being outraged at  being knocked back,  appear to be overwhelmed by the largesse of the bookmaker who accepts each-way singles/multiples on 8-10 runner races where the outcome appears to be two against the field with a fairly clearly defined third favourite!
It’s a bit rich old boy, for punters to be excusing windy bookies! At this rate I can see you stomaching a return to the bad old days of a sixth the odds a place when the favourite starts on!
The impression given is that it’s just a question of finding a gullible bookie (eh!!! pardon???), lump on and collect! And the wail once more is ‘Bookie mugged by each-way bandit  again! Would that it was that easy!
And does this punting paradise apply to novice chases which meet the criteria? If so, then I suggest this road  leads not to riches but to Carey Street!
Seagull: thanks for very interesting stats.
And to the inestimable John Cockerill, I say well done, sir! Bertie salutes you!
But how about an example from the TRF experts from today’s fare?
And may I be so bold as to request that selections are posted in advance as Bertie suspects that, judging from this thread, one or two Forumites believe they reside in Shangri La but, in reality, are big in Cloud Cuckoo Land!
The 7.00 at Goodwood looks like a likely prospect, assuming all eight run. What’s the call for this would-be Each-Way Bandit?
Answers before 7.00 please as Hindsight isn’t running this weekend!
Toodle pip!<br>
Yes Ian, but as prices don’t stand still and you can’t get place doubles on the exchanges, but maybe that will change when backandlay is up and running! (circa when?)
In the unlikely event of the Big 3 offering place only terms on second favourites (lol), punters such as the Ladbrokes one will have to risk the win part of the wager, but a return of £37,500 for an outlay of £20,000 should only the place part triumph, or quarter of a million for a bullseye!, is not to be sniffed at.
I consider the bet to be an entirely sound investment and anyway Bertie’s money is down and I don’t want some smart alec self-professed expert of the TRF slagging me off as just an EW bandit. (NB: I am not, for once, referring to your good self!)
Am now off to get seriously inebriated pre-Sandown tonight so will be incommunicado until tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
Bertie’s a bit puzzled about the disdain that’s been expressed about punters who specialise in  each-way doubles on what are deemed to be place certainties and, laughably, the sympathy expressed from TRF members of some standing towards bookmakers who are prepared to accept them.
Thought I’d resurrect this subject again as Ladbrokes’ Balthazar Fabricus (is this guy real?) has ‘reported’ a £10,000 each way Oaks/Derby double on Hi Dubai and Alamshar at 7/2 and 4-1 respectively.
Assuming the Magic Sign are going 1-4 the odds a place, would the TRF panel of experts agree that this is a brave bet or would they contemptuously dismiss the punter as just an another EW ‘thief’.
Answers before 4.05 tomorrow please as Hindsight is wonderful but unfortunately is not running in either the Oaks nor the Derby!
Toodle pip!
Jim: my suggestion that you be the next Pontiff wasn’t such a shot in the dark, there was a clue in the message – "when the white smoke signals from Castel Gandolfo reach for the blue sky…"
White smoke signals from the Vatican’s Synod of Cardinals spelling out ‘Jim The Saviour’ is quite a powerful image and one that is certain to even increase your already legendary status in Glasgow! It’s not too late to start using your left foot, you know!
William: absence of modesty makes you a non-runner in the Papal Stakes but your description of Jim, Ian and Rory as the Three Wise Men is spot-on! Who’s the wisest of the three?
Just thought this thread was getting a bit too personal and could do with a little bit of light humour.
Toodle pip!
Good morning Gentlemen!
<br>William: JTS is a very wise man and much respected by all on TRF.
Furthermore, my mole in the Vatican tells me that the top job there will fall vacant imminently and I wouldn’t mind betting that when the white smoke signals from Castel Gandolfo reach for the blue sky the name Jim the Saviour will be writ large for all the waiting world to see!
Who else on the Forum could possibly qualify for a position which demands infallibility as an essential requirement – apart of course from Ian Davies- and God, how could I have forgotten, Rory. Christ I think I’ll open a book –
NEXT POPE: 10-11 JTS, 7-4 Ian Davies, 3-1 Rory, Sky 15-2 (with a run), 33-1 bar…
William: I haven’t seen any updates recently and was wondering how the system is progressing? Pray tell
Toodle pip!<br>
Tried the system today and got to admit to a huge slice of good fortune.
I was sure Kent would be favourite, and a short-priced one as well, in the 5th race and backed it accordingly.
Got back to the nest in time to see Ullshaw go off fav. Thought my goose was cooked but instead Kent won like the good thing I thought he was.
Can’t believe the price. Must be a case of the Devil looking after his own!
Toodle pip!
William: I take  your point but what I was suggesting was that by taking into account that there are very few meetings without a winning favourite and having reached Race 4 with the three previous favs being beaten, might it not be a good strategy to have a good meaty crack – bit like getting into a poker school after the first 3 hands have failed to produce openers and you start playing for a £400 kitty instead of £100.
To maintain the approximate statistic of 33% winning favs at all meetings, if the first 3 favs lose then there is an outstanding chance that 2 out of the final 3 will win – and your system only needs one to produce the goods!
The extra amount of the bet would be moderated of course by other considerations – such as how much is the beast fancied and whether or not the odds are drifting.
PS: Does any one know what the percentage is of all meetings that fail to return a single winning favourite?
I feel there is potential here for putting together a very simple computer system which, given the right input, could prove quite rewarding. Any computer buffs on here?
Watching with interest!
<br>Toodle pip!
<br>William: Having followed the double-up method in the past myself with varying degrees of success and calamity, would you ever consider hitting the 4th race fav with the same amount you would have done had you been actually betting  unsuccessfully on the first 3 races? In other words, taking your example, the first bet would be for £8 instead of the £1.
Granted I’m being greedy and in a hurry but the way I see it it’s quite rare for a meeting to pass (Cheltenham excepted) without a winning fav and if you’re patient enough to wait for losing favs in the first 3 statistically speaking wouldn’t there be a very sound chance of one of the last 3 bolting in and with a good wedge on it?
Very interesting post William and one I will be following with great interest.
Toodle pip!<br>
Conall: You’re right – I have indeed noticed the decline in the Queens over the years. That year you refer to, 1995, was particularly overcrowded and rowdy.
I now stay with a little widow woman I know in Bishops Cleeve which, believe me, is much much better. But I still go to the Queens for a meal and a drink. Never noticed the bar running dry though – was probably asleep!
Toodle pip!<br>
Daeisy: I’m also under the impression that the Gold Cup is to be switched to the Friday – otherwise the last day would be a bit limp would it not.
Maybe Ol Bertie’s marbles are a bit too pickled but I definitely remember attending a Festival not all that long ago where there was a fourth day – though I seem to recall that the Friday fare was a bit low-key!
The only reservation I’ve got about four days is the cross country event – too higgledy piggledy for the purist!
But an extra night at the Queen’s – now that  is something to relish!
<br>Toodle pip!
