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elcatero
This isn’t really a system but a method. Not trying to split hairs, just thought it’d be more at home here. Should I post on systems too ?
Excellent post.
The trend in recent years has been to breed more and more speed into the thoroughbred racehorse to the detriment of stamina. Breeders generally aren’t interested in breeding for the jumps since once the horse has finished its career it has no stud value ( they’re all gelded ). I believe Ireland is an exception to the rule which explains why so many top quality jumpers hail from there.
Thanks GeorgeJ for taking the time out to reply at length.
I’ve never been interested in systems but rather in people’s methods of form study, the way in which they manage to narrow down a race to a handful of live contenders. As such the Marvex should still be of interest to me.
Thanks GeorgeJ.
There are three of his books on offer for £20 so I’ll probably stick in an order after Christmas. Can you give me any further insights into his methods for form study, i.e. does he make great play on collateral form, etc ?
HA !
The jockey’s are reporting the ground to be riding soft, so that would give
SHERWANI WOLF
claims now.
What a nightmare !
Thanks for your reply Reet Hard.
I think you make a good point.
DOESLESSTHANME
has already won over 20f and it would be crazy of Nicholls to apply the blinkers on this tep up in trip if stamina was an issue. His current odds of around 3/1 are more realistic and he could well be the pick if
INVICTUS
goes too short ( best priced 2/1 as I write ).
Having slept on it I’m now not even sure about the wisdom of backing
PYRACANTHA
each-way. For one the race only pays to two places, and its inexplicably poor effort at Market Rasen on the 13th August raises doubts ; its subsequent shock win came in first-time cheekpieces.
Do you see this race as a match between
DOESLESSTHANME
and
INVICTUS
or do you see any others entering the reckoning ?
Thanks Miss Woodford.
I note the forecast favourite Caprio is now out to 5/1. Rubenstar is the current favourite at 9/4 but he’s coming into the race off a 35 day layoff and has never previously won off an absence. He too is poorly in with
MY LORD
who, rightly or wrongly, is my choice.
Thanks Pen ‘N’ Paper.
Not quite sure what to make of the other reply. Have you been able to get out for your pills during the cold snap… ?
The race is contentious but I’m leaning towards
KILMURRY
myself. My tissue fot the race reads : Kilmurry 3/1 ; Radium 7/2 ; Loosen My Load 7/2 ; Captain Chris 5/1 ; Ghizao 6/1. Kilmurry is around 9/2 at the moment and if I could get 5/1 I’d be more than happy !
Thanks for taking the time to respond, btw.
I think it always needs stressing just how difficult the game is. The rules are constantly changing and it’s a bit like having to play a violin solo with a full orchestra at a packed Albert Hall while still learning the instrument.
I’ve lost count of the amount of times it has completely frozen on me in the last few weeks. All very frustrating and time consuming.
Having read your account a little more carefully (…) I see you use the adjusted rating. Do you think it makes a difference how far back that rating was achieved ? A LTO best could’ve been posted just seven days ago, or 265 days back, for example. I’m assuming you would check to see if the horse in the latter case had ever gone well fresh before.
Interesting reply from wwweeerrr.
Do you use the adjusted figures or do you simply go by the raw figure earnt last time out? For example, in today’s 1:50 at Exeter
FIVE STAR WILSHAM
posted a 107 LTO which when adjusted to take into account today’s weights gives him 109.
The odds are certainly stacked against you, that’s for sure. Even in an 8 runner field you only have a 12.5% chance of finding the winner, while if you look at smaller fields the odds on your winning selection almost inevitably decrease. I’d also agree that with so many variables it is often difficult to see the wood from the trees. I’ve read plenty of books on the subject and looked at thousands of races over the last ten years but I can’t really say I understand the game all that much better than I did at the start, certainly as far as striking winning bets on a regular basis goes anyway. I’m pretty sure if I’d studied chess with the same devotion I’d have made far more progress than I have with racing ; it just doesn’t seem to reward the time and effort one puts into it.
