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Just some old fashioned form study

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  • #20256
    bluebookbluebook
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    • Total Posts 100

    Picked on Hereford’s 2:30, a class 3 Novices’ handicap chase over 21 1/2 furlongs. Working from the head of the handicap down :

    DOESLESSTHANME : As short as 15/8 as I write from a forecast 3/1. That looks very poor value to me as I feel it has yet to conclusively prove its stamina despite winning over 20f at Fontwell LTO. Worth taking on !

    GET IT ON : Bit disappoiting LTO when 2nd behind BOTTMAN on a track that should have suited. Handicap chase win looked nothing special and beat dross LTO. Small physique means could be vulnerable off second top-weight.

    PYRACANTHA : Looks seriously overpriced at 16/1 having already taken a class 3 novices’ hcp chase off 122 at Market Rasen in April. Return to this trip ideal having raced last twice at 25f and should relish going right-handed again on another sharp track. Best on good or faster.

    INVICTUS : Irish point winner who took a mdn hurdle LTO rated 122. Looks the one to beat on chase debut.

    SHERWANI WOLF : Another making its chase debut but prior record suggests probably only enters the reckoning if its soft or worse.

    SUNSETTEN : Already been comprehensively btn by PYRANCANTHA and no reason to expect a form reversal.

    PRESENT TO YOU : In form but looks outclassed at this level.

    Conclusion : Main selection : INVICTUS ( 11/4 )
    Each-Way selection : PYRACANTHA ( 16/1 )

    #378204
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    BB
    Just my view, but PN is hardly likely to apply first-time blinkers to a horse with doubtful stamina.
    Wish you well with your bet though, nothing at all wrong with good old fashioned form study (though it helps to have some idea of what a trainer’s trying to do with a horse; in this case, I’d suggest the blinds are to concentrate his mind on his jumping – which makes the horse not one to dismiss lightly, imo).

    #378237
    bluebookbluebook
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    Thanks for your reply Reet Hard.

    I think you make a good point.

    DOESLESSTHANME

    has already won over 20f and it would be crazy of Nicholls to apply the blinkers on this tep up in trip if stamina was an issue. His current odds of around 3/1 are more realistic and he could well be the pick if

    INVICTUS

    goes too short ( best priced 2/1 as I write ).

    Having slept on it I’m now not even sure about the wisdom of backing

    PYRACANTHA

    each-way. For one the race only pays to two places, and its inexplicably poor effort at Market Rasen on the 13th August raises doubts ; its subsequent shock win came in first-time cheekpieces.

    Do you see this race as a match between

    DOESLESSTHANME

    and

    INVICTUS

    or do you see any others entering the reckoning ?

    #378242
    bluebookbluebook
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    HA !

    The jockey’s are reporting the ground to be riding soft, so that would give

    SHERWANI WOLF

    claims now.

    What a nightmare !

    :?

    #378244
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Probably a match BB, but Invictus hasn’t been out this season, nor had a run over fences (PTP’s are usually slow affairs), and PN has generally improved the Wylie horses, so I’m surprised he’s not favourite today.

    #378251
    bluebookbluebook
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    Ended up backing

    DOESLESSTHANME

    at 5.1.

    #378252
    bluebookbluebook
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    Well, they say your first instinct is usually right… ! :wink:

    #378277
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Aye – the betting told the story, as it turned out.

    #378294
    kevg487kevg487
    Member
    • Total Posts 32

    golden rule: never change your mind.

    I had invictus and moonlight drive, doubles and singles.

    I think moonlight drive really needed the run

    :( got 9/4 INVICTUS so not too bad

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