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Really like No More Heroes myself. I think he was made for chasing over 3miles. The only slight concern I would have is whether or not good ground will be a help or a hindrance. I respect More of That greatly, but I think this fella could be a bit special.
Yorkhill not declared but Bellshill is for this one. Mullins with a late change of heart it seems.
Black Hercules as expected, pulled out of the 4 miler. I’m still holding out hope that ROI Des Francs goes here instead of the RSA but I may be clutching at straws. I backed BH, RDF and Onenightinvienna for this race and there’s a 50-50 chance that no one will turn up! Ah the perils of ante-post betting!
I missed your post in the other thread Bigzeb, I’ve trawled back through them
and I can see you were way ahead of me with Silver Concorde. 20/1 w/o Min is
a great bet.I couldn’t agree more with you on your assessment of his chances, on decent ground
on a course he has already taken to, he is very decent value.Great minds think alike…..I can’t quite remember the rest of that proverb
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In our case it’s probably the end that most applies to us….fools seldom differ!
Here’s hoping he gives us a good spin for our cash anyway. The more I see people crabbing Min, the more I think he might make a fool of everyone and when like Douvan and Vautour have done the past two years. If he got anywhere near 3/1 on the day, I would certainly be taking that. His jumping outside of maybe Shantou Village, has been the most impressive from a novice that I have seen all year.
Have backed Westend Story.
Has looked very impressive the last two races but both were on very bad ground. I’m not sure if he just has an engine, or if he acts on that sort of ground better than the horses he was up against. Like a lot in this race, he is full of potential though.
I think that MIN looks like the winner here, and I’ve got him in a couple
of accumulators, but the one horse which I think has been overlooked here
is SILVER CONCORDE.Two years ago he won the Champion Bumper, beating the likes of Shaneshill
and Black Hercules. Shaneshill did turn that form around in his next race,
but he got the march on the field with two to go and SC was closing but too
late.He’s only had 3 runs over hurdles, and was well beaten by Supasundae on his
last run at Leopardstown in December. That was on knee deep ground, and this
is a horse that definitely needs decent ground to be at his best. He has a
real turn of foot when he gets his conditions, which he showed winning the
November Handicap at Leopardstown in October on good ground. He should get
his ground for this.Dermot Weld is not a guy that tilts at windmills, so I think that 20/1 is
very well worth a bet. I’ll be surprised if he’s anywhere near that price
next week. I’m very sweet on his chances.Good man Big Slips. I made the same arguement a few weeks back in the “this year’s Uxizandre” thread. I said then to back him at 20/1 without Min so happy enough with that as you get 1st 3 places if Min finishes outside the top 3 and top 4 if he finishes in the top 3. I am not sure if he’s good enough to win, but he does love good ground, looked very good for 4/5 of the race at Christmas and has raced against some very good animals already in his career. The big thing is though that he is effectively a second season novice after not winning last year. I think that experience will tell and I’d be very hopeful of a big run.
Maybe a bit of a shot in the dark as he’s only back from a long layoff but Morning Assembley for Pat Fahy could have a decent squeak in this if allocated a nice enough weight. He was an excellent novice chaser back in 2013/14, only being beaten by Carlingford Lough in the Topaz at Christmas and finishing 3rd in the RSA two years ago behind O’Faolains Boy and Smad Place. He had one more outing that year when again behind Carlingford Lough in the Grade 1 Novice chase at the Punchestown Festival in Apr’14.
A few setbacks kept him off the track until January of this year where he made a satisfactory re-appearance going down a very short margin behind Bridget’s pet (recent winner Lord Scoundrel 9L back in 3rd). He then again filled the runner up spot behind the impressive Smashing at Gowran park over an inadequate 2 and a half miles. He will more than likely be allocated a sizeable weight on his form lines with Don Cossack, Carlingford Lough, Smad Place et al but if he gets a handy mark, he could be a live contender for this if given the chance.
Totally agree about Silver Concorde, but he has to get there first. Got my fingers burnt after him missing the festival last year.
I 100% agree but I think it’s less likely he’ll miss this one. He’s effectively a second season novice as he still hasn’t won over hurdles and Weld has been gushing over him lately. However, after the defection of Windsor Park and Forgotten Rules never appearing, there is always a doubt about getting the best hurdlers from Roswell House there in one piece.
I’m not saying he will p*ss in by any means but I think the former Cheltenham Bumper winner Silver Concorde has an each way chance at 25s in the supreme. He obviously acts around Cheltenham and will appreciate the drying ground. After winning the champion bumper he was second to the very good Shaneshill at Punchestown. His first run over hurdles saw him finish 2nd to Blair Perrone (who I very much fancy for the Grand Annual depending on his weight) on unsuitably heavy ground.
He then went up in class significantly when contesting the Deloitte hurdle finishing 4th. Look at the horses that day
1st Nichols Canyon
2nd Windsor Park
3rd Alvisio Ville
4th Silver Concorde
5th McKinley
6th Sub Lieutenant
7th Sempre Medici
8th Blair Perrone
9th Idendity ThiefYou could argue that that is the best piece of novice form on offer this year from a novice hurdler. He then had three runs on the flat winning two and only not prevailing in the Irish Cesarewitch. Last time out he was well beaten by Supasundae but again that was on heavy ground that he would have hated. I think Weld only wanted to just get a run into him this year and if he won it was a bonus. At 25/1 or 16/1 w/o Min (effectively getting 4/1 to finish in the 1st 4 depending on Min finishing in the 1st four of course), I think that’s a very, very good price.
Have to agree with Thistlecrack. Yes he’s short but he’s looked very, very good so far this year. AP should go to the champion, so that means VVM to mares then. That leaves probably only Alpha, Cole Harden, Aux Petit Soins and maybe Saphir Du Rheu to beat. Kilcooley is an outsider of note too but he has to get there first. Alpha is still young but progressing nicely. Cole Harden will improve for a sounder surface and back at Cheltenham but you’re taking a chance there. Same with APS and SDR who are both coming off interrupted preps for this. I think you might get 13/8 or 7/4 on the day as he’s from the Tizzard’s but I can’t see him being beaten.
Sizing John at 16/1 ew has to be tempting now at this stage. I doubt there will be even 8 runners on the day so he should only have to beat a few also rans such as Arzal, Fox Norton, maybe The Game Changer who looked ok in the early part of the year to finish at the least in third.
I don’t see De Bromhead stepping him up in trip considering the longest he’s raced over is 2m 1f so far in his career. Even though he was hammered by Douvan last time, he still beat Velvet Maker by 26L who was in 3rd that day. On his second chase start he looked electric over his fences and over hurdles and fences he has only ever finished behind Douvan or Shaneshill. I think the doubt around his target is the reason there is 16/1 available but I do think it is a bit too big.
1. Will Alan King train more winners than Phillip Hobbs YES
2. Will Paul Nicholls train more winners than Nicky Henderson NO
3. Will a female jockey win a race YES
4. Will Min, Faugheen, Douvan and Annie Power all win YES
5. Will David Pipe train 2 or more winners NO
6. Will Vautour finish ahead of Cue Card in the Gold Cup YES
7. Will Willie Mullins train 7 or more winners YES
8. Will Richard Johnson ride more winners than Barry Geraghty NO
9. Will Sprinter Sacre finish in the first three in the Champion Chase YES
10. Will Thistlecrack win the World Hurdle YES
11. Will Venetia Williams train a winner NO
12. Will the official going at the start of day 1 be good to soft YES
13. Will there be 10 or more winning favs YES
14. Will JP McManus own 3 or more winners YES
15. Will Will No More Heroes win the RSA NO
16. Will the Coral Cup winners Sp be 15/1 or shorter YES
17. Will Un De Sceaux win the Champion Chase by 3 or more Lengths YES18. – Tie Breaker – What will be the winning time of the Gold Cup 6.41.25
At 14/1, Smad Place is of obvious each way interest but I just don’t think he’ll finish in the top 3. If he goes out to make all the running, I can see him being swamped late on and finishing 5th or 6th. I just think that for him to place that two of Vautour, Don Cossack, Don Poli, Cue Card and Djakadam have to underperform. I don’t think he is good enough to finish in the top 2 so then you are hoping that he can hang onto third or something like that. I would certainly consider him in perhaps an e/w with the fav (prob Vautour on race day) and grab the extra place there but I would be surprised (and probably a bit disappointed considering the hype of “the big 5” coming into this year) if he was to place. I do like the horse, but if I was being totally honest and a bit selfish, I want the top 5 to come from the top 5 in the betting now.
Having backed the horse I wish I could share your enthusiasm. Similarly to Don Poli there is a feeling that whatever the opposition this type of horse will keep finding enough. I just have a feeling that he has reached his summit.
Shantou Village ran a very good trial yesterday. I know the trainer has been negative about the Albert Bartlett but given the green light I believe he should be favourite. Realistically, he isn’t going to beat Yanworth in a Neptune. Yes, it was a pretty dumb ride from Walsh and better ground might see him closer but actually reversing the form?
Take your point about the opposition but suspect there might be a few types lurking of at least similar ability to the Longsdon horse.
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I backed Shantou Village on Saturday so I was watching him more than the others, but his jumping was absolutely brilliant. Other than Min, I haven’t seen a novice shape so well over his hurdles this year. He doesn’t have the tactical speed to stay with Yanworth and Bellshill over 2 and a half, but if he was stepped up in trip, I would be very, very keen on him against Barters Hill. He may get worried out of it late on, but he will be gaining lengths on BH at every hurdle if the pair jump as they did on Saturday.
The race at the weekend reminded me of they trial a few years ago when The New One and At Fishers Cross took on one another and both won at the festival and I have a funny feeling that history could repeat itself in the shape of Yanworth and Shantou Village.
Disko very unlikely runner after setback. And not a novice but prince de beauchene retired when as short as 7/2 for the fox hunters
Long Run will miss Cheltenham too. All On The Fringe has to do is jump around now you’d imagine.
Onenightinvienna skips cheltenham for the national aparrently
I read that this morning alright. Disappointing in such that he surely could go next year but I guess, like with Coneygree last year, that owners and trainers are more willing to pitch their horses in at the deep end more readily nowadays. The sentiment being, we have them this year sound, we might not have them next year. It would be some achievement if he could pull it off.
I was impressed by the jumping of Onenightinvienna today at Kempton when only narrowly beaten in a 4 runner 3m race. The winner was fantastic at his fences too, a real bold showing by both. However, I was very taken by Onenightinvienna who I would have to have under consideration for the 4 miler if he was to pitch up there in March. Today he probably was tapped for toe in the middle part of the race but was staying on stoutly at the end. After his good run behind Seeyouatmidnight at Cheltenham the RSA would have come under consideration but now I think it’s foregone conclusion that he doesn’t have the required speed for that test even though it’s over 3 miles. He’s 14/1 with William Hill and 12/1 with most of the other firms and I’ll certainly be backing him for this.
