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“This years Very Wood” was a good idea for a thread, started by Pointer last season, so interested to see what peoples thoughts are for this year.
Won’t explain the jist of it, as think Pointers opening paragraph from last year sums up the idea perfectly
Every year there is a horse of proven class that has a poor pre festival build up, goes off at a big price and duly p*sses in. The immediate feeling is ‘christ, that price was way too big and how the **** did I not stick something each way on it??’
I’ll have a stab with Saphir Du Rheu. Up against the mighty impressive Thistlecrack, but not beyond the realms of possibility that a Wind Op can do the trick, after a dismal couple of runs, and he can bet at 16’s.
I’m not saying he will p*ss in by any means but I think the former Cheltenham Bumper winner Silver Concorde has an each way chance at 25s in the supreme. He obviously acts around Cheltenham and will appreciate the drying ground. After winning the champion bumper he was second to the very good Shaneshill at Punchestown. His first run over hurdles saw him finish 2nd to Blair Perrone (who I very much fancy for the Grand Annual depending on his weight) on unsuitably heavy ground.
He then went up in class significantly when contesting the Deloitte hurdle finishing 4th. Look at the horses that day
1st Nichols Canyon
2nd Windsor Park
3rd Alvisio Ville
4th Silver Concorde
5th McKinley
6th Sub Lieutenant
7th Sempre Medici
8th Blair Perrone
9th Idendity ThiefYou could argue that that is the best piece of novice form on offer this year from a novice hurdler. He then had three runs on the flat winning two and only not prevailing in the Irish Cesarewitch. Last time out he was well beaten by Supasundae but again that was on heavy ground that he would have hated. I think Weld only wanted to just get a run into him this year and if he won it was a bonus. At 25/1 or 16/1 w/o Min (effectively getting 4/1 to finish in the 1st 4 depending on Min finishing in the 1st four of course), I think that’s a very, very good price.
Taquin Du Seuil, was mighty impressed with his novice chase season, showing he’s a horse who can jump, travel at a high speed, has a nice turn of foot and can hold his own in a battle up the Cheltenham hill. Very disappointing at the festival last year and this season but has been racing over 3m which he doesn’t want. Came back to form last time out and is now favourite for the 2m5f Brown Advisory Plate (between 10/1 and 14/1).
Totally agree about Silver Concorde, but he has to get there first. Got my fingers burnt after him missing the festival last year.
My “class horse” who has gone under the radar thus far is Whisper. Beat the world hurdle winner comfortably at Aintree last year, and if Henderson’s stable starts firing up a little more than it has been, then I expect him to run well at a price. He has had two runs this season as opposed to an aborted chasing campaign last year, and beating a world hurdle winner 3 and a bit lengths is the best form on offer to me. Better ground should help also.
Totally agree about Silver Concorde, but he has to get there first. Got my fingers burnt after him missing the festival last year.
I 100% agree but I think it’s less likely he’ll miss this one. He’s effectively a second season novice as he still hasn’t won over hurdles and Weld has been gushing over him lately. However, after the defection of Windsor Park and Forgotten Rules never appearing, there is always a doubt about getting the best hurdlers from Roswell House there in one piece.
Gods Own should he contest the Ryanair. You’d have to give him a squeak of a place in the QMCC but over the longer trip in a race that looks set to fall apart numbers and class wise he looks far too big. Served it up to Un De Sceaux last year before getting outpaced up the hill but surely won’t have anything of that class to deal with this time around.
Humbled by the op VTC
Some great calls already – Silver Concorde is a fascinating one alright, had completely escaped me that he has an extra years experience vs most of the field.
Worth having another look at this in a week or two but here’s 3 or 4 that hit the criteria:
– Road to Riches (in a GC context)
– Modus
– Martello Tower ( very strong vibes from Mags lately)
– Sizing Granite (trainer change is bizarre admittedly)
– Moon Racer!??Let’s see in a week or two…
Taquin Du Seuil, was mighty impressed with his novice chase season, showing he’s a horse who can jump, travel at a high speed, has a nice turn of foot and can hold his own in a battle up the Cheltenham hill. Very disappointing at the festival last year and this season but has been racing over 3m which he doesn’t want. Came back to form last time out and is now favourite for the 2m5f Brown Advisory Plate (between 10/1 and 14/1).
This.
Just looked at last year’s thread.
Uxizandre and Wicklow Brave – not bad!!The bump from VTC (selection of Uxizandre) makes sense now!
Peace And Co could be a big price for the Champion. Hasn’t fired this season, but i reckon he wants it good and is proven at Cheltenham. Obviously has that mare to beat, but 10/1 could be a good price. Hargam wasn’t beaten far last year and is another worth considering at an even bigger price. I reckon there’s more to this champion hurdle than a supplemented favourite who despite her record still has questions to answer when presented on the big stage…
I know it isn’t a massive price but POLLY PEACHUM was second in the Mares Hurdle last year and is still 7/1 to win it this year.
She has no Annie Power or Glens Melody to beat and will have been aimed at this from day one!!
And I still haven’t given up on Martello Tower for the World Hurdle and its still 33/1 !!
This is a great thread.
I think its hard to narrow in on one, I am looking at a number in the hope that one or more will deliver.
I was going to suggest Taquin Du Seuil @ 14’s in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate and Village Vic @ 20’s for the Ryanair, but that doesn’t fit the brief of poor build up, but hacks up. Both won last time out and look solid.
Saphir Du Rheu @ 16’s looks interesting. Post wind op, ran well last year, will want better ground and should get it.
If I had to pick one horse, it would be Special Tiara. 4th @ Navan, 2nd in the Tingle Creek and would have won if not for SDG stopping him at the last. Before people call me a complete lunatic for taking on UDS with Special Tiara, these are my thoughts on horses shorter in the market.
Sprinter Sacre – does not find as much as he once did and they leave him with too much to do in his races. I don’t need to back him either, if he won I would be over the moon and happily celebrate it, so win win from that perspective.
Vautour – is surely Gold Cup bound
Dodging Bullets – prep concerns me. I think it took a lot for PN to get him to where he was last year and he is not there this year.
Sire De Grugy – won the Tingle Creek from ST (perhaps when he shouldn’t), has not won since and looks more laboured in his races than he has in the past.Then you have the mighty Un De Sceaux. First off, I am always going to pick holes in an odds on favourite, and the one question mark, or perhaps better put, potential weakness, is his jumping as we all know. Ruby has stopped asking him at fences now and basically lets the horse find his own stride. From the front unchallenged, it works, as proved in the Arkle last year. That being said, I don’t think Special Tiara will let him have it his own way. I am sure someone will prove me wrong, but I can’t remember ever seeing Special Tiara taking the first behind anything, and I don’t see the QMCC being any different. He will put pressure on UDS by front running and whilst UDS has all the ability to stay there and and fly past him, he is more likely to make a mistake if the race is not run his own way. He has fallen twice, he corrected himself repeatedly @ Ascot and I think those points alone are enough to take him on with the less glamourous Special Tiara.
Nice post Charlie. Henderson hinted strongly that they will take UDS on at some point. My guess is after maybe three warm-up fences they’ll move him upsides UDS. That could well unsettle the horse, especially given the size of SS
This is a great thread.
I think its hard to narrow in on one, I am looking at a number in the hope that one or more will deliver.
I was going to suggest Taquin Du Seuil @ 14’s in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate and Village Vic @ 20’s for the Ryanair, but that doesn’t fit the brief of poor build up, but hacks up. Both won last time out and look solid.
Saphir Du Rheu @ 16’s looks interesting. Post wind op, ran well last year, will want better ground and should get it.
If I had to pick one horse, it would be Special Tiara. 4th @ Navan, 2nd in the Tingle Creek and would have won if not for SDG stopping him at the last. Before people call me a complete lunatic for taking on UDS with Special Tiara, these are my thoughts on horses shorter in the market.
Sprinter Sacre – does not find as much as he once did and they leave him with too much to do in his races. I don’t need to back him either, if he won I would be over the moon and happily celebrate it, so win win from that perspective.
Vautour – is surely Gold Cup bound
Dodging Bullets – prep concerns me. I think it took a lot for PN to get him to where he was last year and he is not there this year.
Sire De Grugy – won the Tingle Creek from ST (perhaps when he shouldn’t), has not won since and looks more laboured in his races than he has in the past.Then you have the mighty Un De Sceaux. First off, I am always going to pick holes in an odds on favourite, and the one question mark, or perhaps better put, potential weakness, is his jumping as we all know. Ruby has stopped asking him at fences now and basically lets the horse find his own stride. From the front unchallenged, it works, as proved in the Arkle last year. That being said, I don’t think Special Tiara will let him have it his own way. I am sure someone will prove me wrong, but I can’t remember ever seeing Special Tiara taking the first behind anything, and I don’t see the QMCC being any different. He will put pressure on UDS by front running and whilst UDS has all the ability to stay there and and fly past him, he is more likely to make a mistake if the race is not run his own way. He has fallen twice, he corrected himself repeatedly @ Ascot and I think those points alone are enough to take him on with the less glamourous Special Tiara.
Very good points about Special Tiara. That’s exactly the horse I would like for an each-way bet. I’m quite sure that UDS will be put under massive pressure in his 1st year outside novice company.
Cue Card!
lol!Think we had another thread along the lines of ‘which runner has done absolutely everything right all season but the market remains unconvinced… And duly pi**es in’
Also known as the Sire De Grugy 2014 proposition.Cue Card, Barters Hill, Footpad battling for top spot this year!
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