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I’ll have to stay loyal to Pateese.

Although I’ve chucked a few quid at him for The County Hurdle, I’d much prefer he went here. Won very well at Sandown earlier in the season, and just feel he’s a lot better going right handed. Conditions should suit, and the return to 2 miles will also be an advantage, it’s by far his best trip.

Slight concern his marks not slipped that far, and the more obvious concern that he might still head for Cheltenham, however 25’s seems a very generous each way price.

Plenty of dangers though, Ciceron is another who’s way overpriced at 25’s, though he’s another who could still head for The County. Master of Arts is one who obviously can’t be ruled out. Finally, Nampour. It’s taken him a while to get his act together, but came up against a very well handicapped horse last week, otherwise he’d have been a very comfortable winner. This might be a bit soon, but there’s definitely a big race in him.

GL

I wouldn’t worry about whether Pateese, or any of them, will head to Cheltenham or not, even if they are Cheltenham bound they are unlikely not to want to run here first as there is a bonus (I think £75000) for the winner of this if they go on to win at Cheltenham too. The pipe stable aim at this every year, and have done very well, so I agree with you that Master of Arts is on the shortlist.

Your selection Pateese has a decent chance, he ran a good race to be 3rd in this last year carrying 10st 2lbs. As I mentioned when I opened this thread, I like Lucaindubai a lot. He was 4th, 2 1/4 lengths behind Pateese in this last year. Lucaindubail was carrying 10st and this year carries 10st 6lbs. That puts him 9lbs better off with Pateese this year, who carries 11st1lb.

Of course its a year on and the weight difference might not be significant depending on how they have developed. I think Lucaindubai has run well in his last couple and comes here in fine fettle. It’s going to be a tough race, it always is, and both Pateese and Lucaindubai have been there before and are maybe a bit more battle hardened than the favourites. I hope that goes in their favour.

Best of luck my friend.

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Have backed Overturn at 14/1 e/w (effectively 4 places) in the without H/F market.

Possibly not ideally suited to the course can only think this is the main reason for him being 6/7 times the prices of the likes of Binocular who he beat comfortably in the Autumn. Think you can ignore his run in this last year as he was sacrificed as a pacemaker for PC.

Think the price is way too big, especially with stories he his working very well at home and is expected to run a big race after a nice break. The thing I love about this horse is your almost certain to get a run for your money.

I’m with you on this Pants, although I have just backed him e/w in the normal market. I watched and waited for too long, missing the 33s, but took 25-1 (obviously with NRNB).

It makes sense your bet without HF, there’s no doubting he is the best in the race, I’m just chancing my arm that things can, and often do, go wrong in a race.

As you say, we will get a run for our money if nothing else….although I’m hopeful for more.

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He’s just been cut from 6-1 to 4-1 with Corals. Someone obviously thinks he’s Jewson bound.

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Many thanks Blunkett, that explains the strange movement in the market. I agree with just about what everyone has written, I like the horse a lot, but he is not a betting proposition.

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Yep I had heard he has missed a bit of training so all is not well. I just wondered if there was some other news that came out today, just that it’s a bit of a jump this morning with Hills on info that has been known.

I take all you say Zark, but I like the horse and if they somehow manage to get him right for Cheltenham I think he would have a great chance, but too many iffs and buts for me at this time.

I’ll wait and see how the reports are from the McCain camp before deciding to do anything in the Jewson.

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What’s going on with Peddlers Cross. First he’s moved from the Arkle to the Jewson…..and now he’s starting to drift for the Jewson. From 3-1 yesterday with Hills, now out to 5-1.

Is there something we should know?

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Shock report because it has come from someone who is the least academic "Professor" since professor Quincy Adams Wagstaff.

I think he was promoted from tea boy at the Daily Mash, because he knew how to use a typewriter.

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Yes you are of course right Red Rum, it was indeed Richard Johnson, and indebted to him I am. I replied during a busy days racing, and in fact I had just had a bet on Ruby riding Aerial (jumped ship from Dave’s Dream to Aerial when he drifted out to 6-1) and that was what was very much in my mind….it was indeed Ruby that gave my ticker an acute case of tachycardia, but in the race immediately following Marufo’s win.

Maybe I’m just not used to having two winners on the bounce.

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That’s too much information for me there Carry On Katie. You’ll have me going back to my Bagpuss and Fingermouse days in a minute……and you don’t want to do that

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Thanks Young Fella, your horse ran a good race, and I thought Ruby was taking things so carefully at his fences that he was never going to get there on mine. Even after the last it was touch and go, again I had doubts he would get there. Hats off to Ruby for getting him in the last stride….not so good for my ticker though

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I’m very keen on Marufo in this one. He had a long lay off, nearly a year and a half, and has had two runs to get him right. His last run at Sandown, 3rd to Midnight Appeal was a decent run and off 10st 4lbs I think he is a cracking bet. I grabbed him at 6-1 but 11-2 is still available.

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Mark TT wrote….

I know where you’re coming from, but Papillon had won a 3 mile chase as a 6 year old before finishing second in the Irish National – much better form than Seabass, who has yet to win at that distance.
That’s what i mean about the price – it makes little sense to shorten that much after winning a race everyone thought it could win over a distance it’s proven at.

I think it’s yet another example of the bookies robbing people blind and ‘ creating ‘ gambles that aren’t happening. I doubt there’s that much money on the horse at this stage and his price is a joke.
One placed run over 3 miles and he’s one of the Grand National favourites – it’s ridiculous.

I absolutely agree with you on the odds plunge Mark. The race showed he was well in himself, but it should not have moved the market the way it did. He was hardly hiding under a bushel having won his last 6 races, so it told little more than we knew. It maybe emphasised his battling qualities to get back up just before the post, that impressed me a lot, but I think you are right that the bookies used it a bit.

Maybe it might just come back to haunt them, now that would be a nice change

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Mark TT wrote …..

There’s nothing ‘ new ‘ in that run though. It was over an inadequate trip

Not my idea of a National bet. Yet to win over 3 miles outside of points.

You are absolutely right in that it was over an inadequate trip. However he did run a good race (good enough to win it) and finished like a train, very much looking like a horse that would get much further. Again I accept that his 3m races have been over points, but he has won over 2m5f at Fairyhouse and 2m 6f at Punchestown, and I think there is enough there for Ted Walsh to think this is a National type horse.

He is certainly progressing at a huge rate, and his weight would have been a good lot higher than the 10st 12lbs after another win.
Walsh ran him in the Leopardstown H’cap Chase ( which he won very well over 2m5f) 3 days before the weights were set for the National. I think he did this to make sure he was in the weights.

Incidently, Ted Walsh ran Papillon over 2m at Fairyhoue in January before running him over 2m 5f and 2m 4f at Leopardstown in March…..directly before sending him to Aintree where he won the National.

I’m not saying that Seabass is another Papillon, but I certainly would not be put off by him running in a 2m at Naas.

If Walsh thinks this is a National horse, and nothing has gotten past him in his last 7 races, I don’t think I need to dig any deeper……he has a realistic chance, that’s all I’m saying.

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I know what you mean Mark, on the face of it winning a 2 miler doesn’t point to a national type. Only think i would say in his favour is that he has run 4 times over 3m, winning twice and 3rd once.

Of the previous 6 races he has run before this one, he won them all, and none of those were below 2m4f.

I thought at the end of the race that his chance had gone, but he rallied so well to get up I admit I was impressed. He obviously has a will about him, stamina enough to win over 3m, but it seems also enough speed to win over 2m.

If Ted Walsh, who knows a thing or two about National types, keeps him in the race (nice weight of 10st 12lbs) I admit I would be a bit interested in him.

He has been cut to 16s with some bookies as you say (in fact 14s with a couple) but plenty of 20-1 is still available.

Worth a punt?

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Well I’m not quite sure what race you were watching Zip. I thought she traveled well throughout, the jockey pressed the button (maybe a tad too early…. but perhaps not) and was basically beaten by, according to people who know a lot more about horses than I do, a very well handicapped Irish horse that was gambled as if he were.

After 4M 1f, she gets beaten in the last 50 yards….with the next nearest horse 11 lengths back. If that makes her soft, there must have been a lot of softies behind her too. I think we have to hand credit to Portrait King and Denis O’Regan for running a cracking race and timing it just right.

I think the summery in the RP is fair…..

Held up in rear, smooth headway and in touch before 20th, led on bit 2 out, soon ridden, 2 lengths up last, edged left run-in, headed and no extra last 50yds

She didn’t seem "soft in a finish" when she won the North Yorkshire Grand National over 3m 6f in January…..

Held up in rear, headway 15th, chased leaders 18th, went 2nd approaching 3 out, led 2 out, pushed out (op 10-1)

It’s all about opinions, I respect yours, I just don’t agree with it.

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Well blow me over !!!!

Gingertipster, In my last post to you, I joined you in both of us crying into our glass. However……I’ve just logged into my email, to find an email from Paddy Power telling me I’m getting my money back

It seems that PP had an offer that if your horse was second in the eider, you got your stake back.

I know it might feel a bit like rubbing salt in your wounds….sorry about that….but I just had to tell someone. It was almost better than getting a winner.

Maybe I can try for that Cheltenham satchel again.

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If it makes you feel any better Gingertipster, the only other bet I had yesterday was Posh Bird in the Eider. I really fancied her,and after the last fence I still thought she was going to win, only to be collared in the last 50yards.

That’s racing for you. Still waiting to fill my Cheltenham satchel….. It’s not looking too good at the moment

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