Forum Replies Created
- Posts
DOUVAN WEAK LINK? LOL. He’s the best potenatial horse Mullins has ever trained!
I have a feeling Mullins will step Douvan up in trip. John Durkin, King George and then Gold Cup. Douvans potenatial is massive and the horse has everything to win a gold cup. Mullins knows Douvan is his best chance of ever winning the big one. I’ve taken a risk and backed Douvan at 16/1 Ante Post and still think 12s is to big, but will wait to see RR plans. He could go down the CC route but even money 8 months before Cheltenham isn’t appealing.
Cheltenham Ante post patents and lucky 15 early season at big juicy prices is KEY
Thanks VTC- It is likely Douvan will run in the Champion Chase, however, his price is shocking! Mullins has said this is the best horse he’s ever trained and really wants to win the big one, so at 16/1 I will take a punt.
YANWORTH- I think 14/1 is to big for the JLT. BG gave him a poor ride at Cheltenham and Kings horses weren’t right at the time. I don’t think he is quick enough for the Arkle or CH plus connections will probaly aim Ivanioch G for the CH.
ALTIOR- Might go for the CH but hoping Faugheen or Annie power will put Hendo off. He is class.
It’s very early days, butI have Placed My first ANTEPOST LUCKY 15 for Cheltenham 2017 with Sky Bet. I love trying to guess which races the horses are going to run. SKY BET is key because they pay double odds for one winner.
GOLD CUP- DOUVAN 16/1
JLT- YANWORTH 14/1
Mares Novice hurdle- LETS DANCE 7/1
ARKLE- ALTIOR 5/1
I have lumped on two against the field with sky bet playing 5 places. Wide open derby this year so have gone for double figure prices.
Deauville- 11/1 ew- Loved his trail, he looked professional, I think he will be ridden prominatlly again and should Finnish in the top 5.
MASSAAT- 16/1 ew- I’m willing to take the risk he will stay the trip and also Finnish in the top 5. He wasn’t stopping and ran on well in the 2000 Gs, he has a touch of class. 16-1 is to big
Happy punting!
PUNCHESTOWN
3:10 The job is right 14-1
5:00 Wrath of Titans 20-1 NAP
5:35 The Romford Pele 28-1 (hopefully will be ridden positively)Ew patent
My last £100 lucky 15 for this years jumps season
Sandown
2:55 Valsuer lido 1/1
4:10 measureofmydreams 16/1
4:45 pit zig 7-1
5:45 dell arca 16-1Good luck all
7mm of rain over night the going will be soft. I’ve bet big for me this year and have some at nice prices. Mullins doesn’t have the best record in this race but I think his veterans still have class and they all lovely racing weights.
I hope they place in the top 6 with Bet Victor.
I hope they don’t ride UNIONISTE to far out the back he needs to be in the mid field position. He loves soft ground and there won’t be many coming home stronger.Grounds has gone against Holywell although I does act on soft his chances of running a big race has been reduced.
Sir de champ 40-1ew
Holywell 40-1 33-1 20-1 16-1 all ew
Boston Bob 40-1
UNIONISTE 40-1 33-1
Own his own 66-1
Lump and pray
By the looks of the weather forecast it will be soft for the national.
UNIONISTE acts on soft ground and I think he has a massive chance of getting in the frame running off 10-8. 33/1 is still good value in my eyes.
3 against the field for me
Holywell 40-1 33-1 20-1 16-1
Sir de champs 40-1 ew
Unioniste 33-1 ew NAP if it comes up soft
Worried about the soft ground for Holywell. But if the other two get round they will stay, both act on softer ground and are well weighted.
I have always fancied Holywell to run a big race if the ground doesn’t come up to soft.
Just Looking at the form and runners now and I think the best current value long shot is SIR DES CHAMP at 40-1.
He used to be a class horse previously 2nd in a gold cup and is multiple grand 1 winner. Hes also a sound jumper and is as tough as nails. I think if he comes back to his best he is very well treated running off 10-13.
He is still only 10 and acts on any ground. His comeback run back was encouraging and Mullins has protected his handicap mark ever since with this race in mind.
I have lumped with BV who pays 6 places at are non runner no bet as he is entered in the Topham.
I know he’s coming back from injury but I’m willing to take a risk at 40-1 as 10-1 represents good value for placing in the first 6.
I can see him going off around 25/1 maybe less if copper or Russell take the ride which is a positive
IF IVE EVER SEEN A PLOT FOR THE NATIONAL ITs HOLWELL
JONJO HAS DONE A FANTASTIC JOB BY SLASHING HIS HANDICAP MARK AND HES RUNNING OFF 10-12
REASONS Im LUMPING AND HAVE
1) ran a cracker in 4th in last years gold cup on ground he hates
2) his last two runs at aintree have been excellent
3) he comes alive in the spring
4) his prep run at the festival is a sign he’s back. Coming 2nd under top weight beaten by pipe plot job
5) THE SAME festival hanicap WHICH the DREWIDs NEWPHEW WON OFF 11-4 last year when he was cruising in the national
6)16-1 is still a fair price in my opinion
7) and the biggest plus of all 10-12 on his back.Negatives- he sometime sulks and might not take to the fences and also soft ground.
I’m in at 40s 33s 20s and 16s.
Get the blinkers on him JONJO. He’s going to mop
Tuesday
Supreme- ALTIOR
Arkle- Douvan
Champion hurdle- Annie power
Mares hurdle- VVM
national hunt- native river 10-1 ew
Chaps novices- double shuffle 16-1 ewWednesday
Neptune- Yanworth
RSA- NO mores heroes
Queen mother- USDTHURSDAY
JLT- Lami serge win
Pertemps- Unanimate 25-1ew (pipes HC horse) but might not get in
Ryanair- Tarquin de soy ew
World hurdle- thristle crack
Brown advisory plate- Champayne west 20-1ew and Art masraque 25-1ewFriday
County- Modus 16-1 ew
Albert Bartlet- gangster and Shantuo village
Cheltenham gold cup- DJAKADAM and Doncossack
Grand annual- lough kent 20-1 ewHappy punting boys
I am glad connections are starting to see sense, she jumps fences better than hurdles. They couldn’t win the 2014 with Annie Power rated 165 where as VVM is only 149 over hurdles. Thistle Crack is a monster
I hope VVM does run in the Ryan air I backed her in a Big Ante post Lucky 15 in October with Billy Hills. If she runs, the way the race is cutting up, i can see her going off favorite around 5/2.
I am glad connections are starting to see sense, she jumps fences better than hurdles. They couldn’t win the 2014 with Annie Power rated 165 where as VVM is only 149 over hurdles. Thistle Crack is a monster
I hope VVM does run in the Ryanair I backed her in a Big Ante post Lucky 15 in October with Billy Hills. If she runs, the way the race is cutting up, i can see her going off favorite around 5/2.
Thislte crack to short to back at 13/8 as a single. Stick him in Accumulators, Yankees and lucky 15’s and you wont go to far wrong. Hes my banker with Alpha Des Obeaux to come 2nd.
VVM is a very good mare, but her price is a joke! I was visually impressed by her at Ascot run. However her OR of 149 over hurdles does not cut the mustard for the WH. Annie Power was rated at 165 going into the 2014 WH and came second with 7 pound allowance. After thriselcrack performance in the Cleeve hes got to have a rating around the 173 mark therefore VVM will hill have 20 plus pounds to find, around a stone taking into account the 7 pound Mares allowance.
This leaves the MH and the Ryan air for VVM.
If Anne power is fit (speculation building) she will surely go for the Mares race to make amends for last years fall. Its doubtful VVM would run if Annie power was fit, however, if Annie Power isn’t fit for the festival i feel the mares hurdle is the right race for VVM.
Over fences shes rated 155 so a 162 horse with her mares allowance. Following confirmation of Smad Place going for the gold cup the highest rated horse is Alferof at 165 but hes now 11!
Pricewise has tipped Vaslseur lido rated at 156 VVM has 6 pounds on him.
Ma Filleule Ma filleule came second rated 159 last year and i think VVM stays better and may have improved since her 155 rating.
If Vautour goes for the Gold cup which i think he will. RR will want two darts instead of one as it is likely Gigglestown will have at least 3 runners for the GC. If Vautour goes for the Ryanair and hacks up (which he will) and Djakadam messes up the GC, Mullins and richie will by thinking what a blown opportunity if only!
If Annie Power is fit the mares hurdle. In my opinion the ryan air is obliviously the race for VVM. But if Annie power doesn’t make the festival VVM will win the mares hurdle on the bridle.
My guess is VVM will go the the mares hurdle as it is looking more unlikely Annie power wont make the festival. The Ryan air is the right race but i don’t think they will not run as they want to protect her mark of 155 for the Grand national so she will run of around 11 stone if Many Clouds turns up.
