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Pru,
I think you are being a bit hard on trends analysis. A lot of the time the problem with this type of analysis is the conclusions it’s users make rather than the approach itself.
The only reliable way to use this type of analysis is to know the true percentages and winning expectations (or profit/loss figures) for each trend you are investigating.
For instance, say 8yo’s and older have never won a particular h’cap hurdle in the period you are looking at. That tells you absolutely nothing unless you know how many 8yo’s+ ran and how many could have been expected to win (or their P+L figures). When you this, then you can start to come to some conclusions.
Anyway, I’m a firm believer that every type of successful punter is an "analyser of trends" whetether they’d call it that themselves or not.
Quote: from Ian Davies on 2:50 am on Jan. 11, 2005[br]
ACR1,You appear to have a persistent petty axe to grind with me which precludes us having constructive discussions with one another, so believe or disbelieve me at your leisure, it’s all the same to me. :biggrin: <br>
No axe here, Ian but I didn’t realise you were into constructive discussion – I thought it was just long-winded, righteous bluster that interested you.
BTW, making snide comments about Barry Denis getting free publicity from TRF is hilarious coming from you. No one gets more free airtime on here to promote their business than yourself. I suppose the difference is you need it, he doesn’t.
"Fair enough  – however, I know of others who take a different view"
Ian,
Care to name them? MAybe you could do it by PM?
(Edited by ACR1 at 2:47 am on Jan. 11, 2005)
Quote: from Artemis on 9:06 am on Dec. 9, 2004[br]
I purposely avoid rating the lower grade races, because I believe the form in these races, or more correctly, the horses’ ability to reproduce that form, is less certain than in higher grades. ÂÂÂ
Artemis,
I think your second perception that "there’s probably not as much in it as I first thought … horses do generally run to form in these lower grade races" is the correct one.
The figures below show the strike rate of horses with the best "last time out" speed figure in all-aged h’caps on the all-weather and you can see that there’s little in it between the various grades –
Class Wins Runs Win %<br><65 112 542 20.7%<br>65-70 168 875 19.2%<br>75-80 111 548 20.3%<br>85-90 60 272 22.1%<br>95+ 27 129 20.9%<br>
(Edited by ACR1 at 9:54 am on Dec. 9, 2004)
Quote: from EC on 8:31 pm on Dec. 5, 2004[br]:cool:  clive
Most of the general public, if asked, would nominate Red Rum as the best chaser anyway:o <br>
And Tim Henman as the best tennis player.
I’m surprised nobody has commented on the role of Cenkos in the race. NH is not my speciality but it seemed to me that Geraghty was more than happy to take a tow around from the second Nicholls’ horse and to take it up when that one ran out of steam.
How would the race have unfolded without Cenkos in it? Did the running of Cenkos set the race up for Moscow? Would it have turned into more of a speed test where the younger horses would have had more toe than MF or would Moscow have been able to make all and still found that bit extra?
Should the Harrington team look at purchasing Cenkos to use as a pacemaker for Cheltenham? Should Coolmore watch the re-runs to see how a pacemaker should be used?
I’d agree with David’s last two comments regarding this race Firstly, Hales utterances after the race didn’t befit the occasion and secondly, whatever rating Moscow ran to is immaterial.
Like an Olympic track final, today was about winning not about busting the clock and the Moscow team got it right with, IMO, a large helping hand from the other Nicholl’s runner.
The fact still remains that we have yet to see another horse get the better of Moscow Flyer at the finish of a chase. He’s a real champion.
Robert99,
Carvills may be missing some of the finer points of this argument but you are obviously not. Would you care to post a few of your odds lines here so we can all benefit from your brilliant insights?
Quote: from Ian Davies on 2:31 pm on Oct. 13, 2004<br>Not at all, I understand this type of ”humour” perfectly well – we all went to infant school over here as well, you know, so we’re well familiar with school playground humour. :biggrin:
But some of us move on from it as we grow up. ;)
Yet another devastating put down from the master (out of a repetoire of two).<br>
(Edited by ACR1 at 3:28 pm on Oct. 13, 2004)
Empty – it’s just that life is too short for the value debate. You can either get your head around the concept and accept it or it’s beyond you and therefore you dismiss it as "cobblers" like Ricky.
Hands up – I was ‘aving a larf but I thought Empty was too coming up with that old chestnut at 1.15 in the morning. If you weren’t, Empty, then I apologise and of course you should be looking for value. BTW, it’s not usually to be found in the British Eurovision Song contest entry.
"why do these people state "the price is to short for me" etc. <br>are they trying to make themselves look more intelligent to the public"
Empty Wallet – I think you are right. It must be that they are trying to sound more intelligent than they are.
I often hear these people coming up with some brilliantly insightful analysis like "Good Thing is 3lbs better off with No Hoper for the one length beating he got last time so that should be enough for him to turn the tables. He should come on for that run and he’ll appreciate the gound and the step up in trip. He’s got an "ideal racing weight" and his shrewd trainer wouldn’t be sending him on a 700 mile round trip just for the exercise"
It’s obvious that this horse is a cert but these so-called experts are keen to show that they understand this trendy new concept of value so they blow all that brilliant analysis by stating "but he’s too short for me". A firing squad would be too good for them.
Of course you should never be looking to find "value". Favourites win most races so stick to backing them. Another great source of "value" are National Lottery scratch cards, BAGS greyhounds and the British Eurovision Song Contest entry. Never forget that a winner is a winner no matter what the price.
No – she thought she got value. Big difference between getting it and thinking you’re getting it. She sounds like a mug to me.
