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A follow on from thehorsesmouth’s thread of last year
Nap – Un De Sceaux – His competition are being built on former glory days as show in the Clarence House when taking out Sire De Grugy with the minimal of fuss, his jumping errors are being over played and is on the whole a great jumper, has an engine and speed.
Lay – (Place Lay) Sprinter Sacre – Will cruise up UDS backside and the super-expletives will be dribbling out of Simon Holt’s mouth, but when push comes to shove he will blow up quicker than a kinky doll in gingers bedroom.
Each/way – Shaneshill – JLT 12’s is an over-reaction to his below par effort the other day, the extra distance and course layout will play to his strengths, Ruby will be on the wrong one.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Sadly, given that I hoped it might support the rest of my ante-post bets, my place lay would be Barters Hill in the Albert Bartlett and my win bet would be Shantou Village who I believe should be favourite for the same race.
Nap thistlecrack world hurdle
Lay ivanovich gorbitov triumph
Ew Dodging bullets QMCC nrnb
If nr arctic fire ew champion hurdleLike these threads Nathan, cheers.
Nap – Cause of Causes 25’s (Kim Muir)
Lay – Bellshill
EW – Village Vic 33’s (Ryanair)Nap: Thistlecrack
Lay: Don Cossack
EW: More of that (single most solid ew bet of the festival at 5/1 imo, if he doesn’t win it places and money back)
Nap – Barters Hill – Weakest of the novice hurdle events IMO and just no worthy opposition…strongly believe he will go off somewhere near even money on the day and like in all 7 runs so far will not be for passing…
Lay – Thistlecrack – I’m not a layer of horses but just for the purpose of this thread he would be my choice…I suppose if you’re picking a ‘lay’ it’s about trying to get a short priced one beat? I was mightily impressed with him the other day straight after the race (who couldn’t have been) but on reflection was it really that much of a fantastic win given the opposition? He should have won like that really….on the same night I watched back last years World Hurdle and can’t get over how well Cole Harden won, and also how he’s been campaigned this season with one race in mind…I can see him giving Thistlecrack a real race and it’s a race that’s been kind to repeat winners in the past and one that’s not so kind to horses doing it on the bridle…I think looking at the short priced favourites across the meeting at around evs to odds on, he would be the one I’d take on…
Each Way – Long Dog – I’m still struggling to understand why he’s still 16/1 in the Neptune? Six wins on the bounce, two grade 1 wins, trained by Mullins and owned by Ricci….am I missing something here? Keep seeing people say Tombstone would readily turn around last times result but I’m not so sure…love his attitude and love the way he gets down and responds to pressure….I wonder if Tombstone wins well at the weekend and Ruby then decides to ride this fella over Mullins others in the race he will drastically shorten?
NAP: Yanworth – has to be one of the most impressive novices I’ve ever seen. Really cannot see anything getting near this.
LAY: Douvan – purely because he simply does not warrant the very short price he is. He’s beat a total of about 5 horses in his 2 chase starts and I don’t think he won particularly well last time. 4/6 is ridiculous.
E/way: Polly peachum – can easily see this horse finishing 2nd to Annie Power since she has great form and I heard it’s her last season. And if Annie power doesn’t show up or doesn’t run well due to the problematic preparation then polly could win it
Nap: On the fringe foxhunters. Seriously impressive last year and this year looks a weaker race to boot.
Lay: Djackadam. Hideous prep for the gold cup, the horse is coming in off a fall, had a grueling race last year and hasn’t even run a total of 4 miles this season.
Each Way: vroum vroum mag Ryanair. I’ll take a punt that she goes here as thistlecrack looks the real deal and her hurdles form is way short of the mark. 9/1 now is a good price all things considered for a horse that will likely start fav. R2R the only fly in the ointment.
NAP VAUTOUR GC It stays it wins!!
LAY MIN SN Has beat trees!
E/W JOSSIE’S HILL CC If this ever jumped a clear round it would beat everything!!
NAP – Yanworth – Neptune (Douvanesque last time)
LAY – Vautour – GC (Should mop up the Ryanair instead, as he won’t stay IMO)
E/W – Yorkhill – Wherever he runs
Nap – Vautour – on good ground I think this wins well.
Lay – Min – connections aside and their recent victories. A bad race for overhyped favourites. Has beaten nothing yet. Awful price currently.
Each Way – Bachasson – not sure where he goes yet, but his neck second to Long Dog in the Royal Bond on ground he didn’t like was a good effort, looks sure to improve for better ground.
Nap: Un De Sceaux, i expect a breathtaking display and at least a 2 or 3 length victory,nothing good enough in there to beat him.
Lay: Killulatagh Vic, really nice Novice chaser but he’s shortened to a silly kind of price at about 2/1 in what could end up a particularly hot JLT,Shaneshill, Vaniteux,Zabana all likely to be opposing. Min’s equally mind bogglingly short at 6/4 or so having done nothing to warrant such a price but with the manner he’s won and hype from such connections it was always likely.
E/w: Marinero in the Novices handicap chase 1st day. Came here last season looking well treated over hurdles off 138 having beaten Long Dog giving him 3 lb and finishing 6 lengths behind Douvan and 4 lengths behind Alpha Des Obeaux in a Grade 2 giving them 2 lb but didn’t have any luck at all and never got into it. He went on to Aintree off 137 and was set to challenge at the last despite a slipped saddle but came down and in his last hurdles run he scooted in in an admittedly average looking race but grabbed a mark of 145 in the process.
He’s been eyecatchingly campaigned over fences so far with him not exactly looking like he was all out for win on each occassion(kind of surprised he’s been given a mark) but has got 135
In all likelihood that will go close to 140(the limit) but the horses close to top of the weights have been doing well in this race and i think he’ll go very close if/when he goes here.Good idea:
NAP is easy Yanworth looked a machine and I expect big things from this lovely looking horse.
LAY is also very simples in MIN who must be the biggest talking horse in training and as we have seen recently it is easy winning Mackey mouse races in a big but come to England on better ground and bang the bubble can regularly burst.
EW Nap is from the Nicholls yard and Connetable in the Triumph, when he says reminds me of Zarkandar that’s a huge compliment and at 16/1 I was very happy.
In all likelihood that will go close to 140(the limit) but the horses close to top of the weights have been doing well in this race and i think he’ll go very close if/when he goes here.
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