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I don’t think there are many certs this year sprinter sacre besides, but for me the stand out at the prices is our conor.
initially I was against this horse, but looking deeper not only was he extremely visually impressive, but did a very good time figure as well (according to nick mordin he’s the best four year old hurdler since detroit city.)
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<!– s8) –>My banker, is For Non Stop.
The way he slaughtered his field first time up at Aintree was impressive. He has been out of sorts on unsuitably heavy ground since, but will act on better ground, and he has clearly trained on after that reappearance. Throw into the mix a couple of the market leaders may not even go for the Ryanair, I can’t see him being out of the first three, even if they do.
He obviously goes well fresh as well and hasn’t run since Christmas, all adds up to a huge run for me.I posted this on the Foxhunters thread a few weeks back and recent events have only strengthened my opinion. The 9s has now gone but he’s still banker material as far as I’m concerned.
Lee
Chapoturgeon looked good again yesterday but having fancied him last year I can’t forget how my reservations about him fully seeing out the trip came true up the hill.
For that reason, I won’t be going in again.
Tammys Hill is definitely a horse on the up and having UR when sent off at 16/1 to win a Leopardstown Hunter chase a year ago (won by Salsify), he has since racked up a series of odds on victories in PTPs.
He must have every chance but the one I really like is last year’s winner
Salsify
.
Still only 8 himself, he comes out as much the same horse as Tammys Hill on their last two races, in which he’s been beaten 3 1/2 lengths both times when giving away 4lb.
For me, those runs alone entitle him to be sharing favouritism but it’s his preference for the better ground he’s likely to encounter at Cheltenham that makes the currently available 9/1 seemingly excellent value.
Although he’s been running well on a softer surface (the two recent defeats by TH coming on Hvy & Sft/Hvy), his record on going any slower than Gd/Sft reads;
00633172U2PF22
Compare that to his record on Gd/Sft or quicker;
351F11111
Trainer’s quote after he’d won at Leopardstown last Feb: "That’s nice ground for Salsify as he’s probably more of a spring horse"
The winner of this race last year (beating Chapoturgeon – the current favourite for this years event), still only 8 years old, formlines to suggest the has the beating of anything outside the first 3 in the betting… There are a plethera of worst priced bets on offer at this year’s festival.
And at least you know what race he’ll be heading for
Lee
I posted this on the Foxhunters thread a few weeks back and recent events have only strengthened my opinion. The 9s has now gone but he’s still banker material as far as I’m concerned.
Lee
Chapoturgeon looked good again yesterday but having fancied him last year I can’t forget how my reservations about him fully seeing out the trip came true up the hill.
For that reason, I won’t be going in again.
Tammys Hill is definitely a horse on the up and having UR when sent off at 16/1 to win a Leopardstown Hunter chase a year ago (won by Salsify), he has since racked up a series of odds on victories in PTPs.
He must have every chance but the one I really like is last year’s winner
Salsify
.
Still only 8 himself, he comes out as much the same horse as Tammys Hill on their last two races, in which he’s been beaten 3 1/2 lengths both times when giving away 4lb.
For me, those runs alone entitle him to be sharing favouritism but it’s his preference for the better ground he’s likely to encounter at Cheltenham that makes the currently available 9/1 seemingly excellent value.
Although he’s been running well on a softer surface (the two recent defeats by TH coming on Hvy & Sft/Hvy), his record on going any slower than Gd/Sft reads;
00633172U2PF22
Compare that to his record on Gd/Sft or quicker;
351F11111
Trainer’s quote after he’d won at Leopardstown last Feb: "That’s nice ground for Salsify as he’s probably more of a spring horse"
The winner of this race last year (beating Chapoturgeon – the current favourite for this years event), still only 8 years old, formlines to suggest the has the beating of anything outside the first 3 in the betting… There are a plethera of worst priced bets on offer at this year’s festival.
And at least you know what race he’ll be heading for
Lee
I’m with you on this one Lee, banker material for me is Quevega – a safer proposition @ 4/6 over hurdles than 1/4 Sacre over fences (no matter how good a jumper he is), but for a valu bet at odds against, Salsify at 3/1 is still a very solid bet. You may recall i got some 10s and i’m on at all rates down to 5/1. Just watched the re-run last night of the 2012 Foxhunters and he cruised round at the back, jumping well and sliced through the field round the home turn, winning pretty comfortably.
He looks to have been brough to peak specifically for this, Tammys Hill has probably peaked earlier, leaving Chapoturgeon as the only real danger, but there is no reason why he should reverse last years running.Rule The World in whatever he goes for.
agreed. judging by the odds on betfair he’s more than likely aimed at the neptune. backed him at 9s earlier. three times the price of pont alexandre, despite having a very similar rating.
First Lieutenant if he goes for the Ryanair if not Jezki’s or MTOY as I have double figure odds about both EW
Was going to wait until weights published and see what Court Minstrel came out with for the VOB, obviously will be better than fair as he’s into 9s from 20s on BET365 today.
GET ON!!!!!!
It’s the moment you reprobates have been waiting for….Zippy’s Chelters nap!
There is a horse that will have his inaugural crown bestowed upon the opening day of the festival.
He is an equine gladiator that promised much last year but was not 100%. However, this year he has flourished…and his races have not been to suit. In fact, he has yet to meet his optimum conditions, as he’ll stay more than 2 miles and he’ll love the championship pace and that dreaded hill!
Who is he? C’mon, you all know, don’t ya?
Why, it’s
ZARKANDAR
, of course!!
I wasn’t a big fan of this horse, but I’m a convert for the purposes of punting the Champion Hurdle winner.
His wins at Wincanton have been far more impressive than may initially meet the eye. That track was never going to suit him as much as Prestbury Park. He won the Tote Gold Trophy when looking like he had no chance. When this horse is right, he searches out a way to win.
He’s been A1 this season and he’s ready to prove he’s the best two- miler around. I expect him to travel brilliantly in the race, but if there is a battle up the hill to be won, he won’t flinch and will invoke the courage and desire needed to vanquish his frothy-mouthed foe.
The other cracking aspect to this race is that Hurricane Fly IMHO is making the prices for all the other horses. HF was beaten fair and square last year and needs a longer trip. He will be outpaced again.
If you want to be on the Zarkandar bandwagon you better take the 5/1 with Ladcrooks as soon as they go non-runner no bet.
You have been warned.
Zippy
I have my doubts about zarkandar, he seemed to be outpaced last year. is there any reason why the same won’t happen this year? has he grown new gears that we don’t know about?
i’ve backed cinders and ashes in the champion. one of my theories with cheltenham is to concentrate on
A: on horses that have show previous form at the festival, and
B: on horses that show a liking for quicker ground.
cinders and ashes ticks both boxes.
the reason I came to this conclusion is because I learnt from bitter experience, to blindly follow those animals that have been dominating in winter ground through most of the jumps season, is the quick way to the poor house.
these creatures are invariably overbet because on that season’s form they may be some way ahead of the opposition. yet festival after festival turns up big shocks as those horses that have not had their ground (like cinders and ashes) suddenly turn the form around with the soft-ground sloggers.
thats my main approach to cheltenham anyway. btw i’m by no means describing zarkandar as a soft ground horse, he clearly isn’t but I just think that better value lies elsewhere.
hurricane fly’s price is laughable to me, wasn’t he favourite last year? I was expecting 5-2 or even 3-1 the field. If anything should be favourite it should be rock on ruby.
It’s the moment you reprobates have been waiting for….Zippy’s Chelters nap!
Harsh but fair Zip
Lol
Crusmissile et al – Wasn’t the Fly outpaced last year? If not, Why was he beaten?
Elgransenor -OK, his defeat last year is a tiny concern at the back of my scanty cranium – but he wasn’t 100% – right?
Now, I’ll have no more half-decent arguments as to why my nap stinks, thank you! ….Geez, give a hottie a break, I haven’t even placed the bet yet!
Zip
SS, + Quevega, maybe Simonsig, are bankers.
I’ve been successful over last 2 yrs, following some general rules
– be suspicious of form on soft ground
– avoid Irish horses unless really keen, too many patriotic punters drive the price down
– they’re all trying, so look for a decent each-way at a big price from one of the strong stables, who usually have multiple entries.These principles got me Rock on Ruby, Une Artiste (50-1!!) and the winner of the last race under an amazing ride from Carberry, forget it’s name.
Of course, this year will probably be a disaster
I’m starting to think that one of my original "bankers" my tent or yours is now going to get turned over
this is because he’s coming off a pretty tough race in testing ground- hardly seems an ideal prep for the supreme, a race run under totally different conditions.
I think he’s a superstar and will go on to win champion hurdles- but I wouldn’t touch him for this one at the price. I’m now starting to think that un atout is the one for that race.
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