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eight declared
Emily Upjohn
Mistral Star
Queen Of Pride
Sea Theme
Lava Stream
You Got To Me
Content
Port Fairybacked Content EW at 3/1 to finally win a big one, maybe to some a strange bet but i hope we are nailed on to get 60% of our shillings back by falling in the frame, i think she will turn tables on the Beckett filly with a clearer run.
Good luck playersI can see the logic in Content each way, nwalton.
I personally make Queen Of The Pride as having the best chance in the win only market. But with the stable in such good form Content probably has the best chance of running to form / placing.
I’ve done each way bets as low as 5/2 in the past. Often having a top up bet in the place only market on betfair in order to break even if placed. Content is currently around 8/11 to be in the first 3 there.However, instead of each way… In this particular market I prefer backing Queen Of The Pride win only @ 4.1… And rather than using an equal sum that would be for a “place”, I use less than that sum on backing both Content and Emily Upjohn as savers both @ 4.5.
Queen Of The Pride along with Content are imo the improvers going into this. Personally I prefer QOTP’s Lancashire Oaks form to the Irish Oaks. Emily Upjohn possibly should have beaten Bluestocking in the Pretty Polly with a better ride… And yet despite that poor ride had Content 3 3/4 lengths further back. Since then an even poorer ride – getting caught wide – in the Nassau, pulling too hard and resulting in being well beaten. The Pretty Polly pretty much proves Emily is the best horse in the field, but will she show it?
You Got Me had everything run right for her in the Irish Oaks while Content had a bit of trouble getting through on her first ride at the trip / wasn’t sure to stay. With that now proven and YGM not sure to get the run of the race this time, I’d be a little surprised if YGM can confirm the places. Particularly with the Ballydoyle stable going so well at the moment.
Mistral Star won well at Newmarket but that was only Listed company. Well beaten by QOTP in the Lester Piggott on her previous start. Ditto Sea Theme winning her French Listed race after well beaten behind QOTP in both Lester Piggott and Lancashire Oaks.
I backed both Port Fairy and Lava Stream in Ireland. The Ribblesdale one two massively disappointed, both seemingly amiss or didn’t want to know. Maybe the race came too soon but there was a month between races and only one month one day till this.
Presumably connections of You Got Me will want to use similar hold up tactics to the Irish Oaks. So Port Fairy might have an easy time of it up front. Because other than those two, Sea Theme is the only other who usually races fairly prominently (tracks pace). All the others either race mid div or held up / dropped out. That said, despite her Ribblesdale victory, Port fairy will probably be used as a pacemaker here, because Content probably wants a fairly brisk pace early in order to be sure to settle. PF is also a stayer at the trip, so a slow pace isn’t in her best interests. However, Content probably has more outright speed than her rivals here. So once the Coolmore first string is settled there is a possibility Port Fairy will go against her own chance (team tactics) and set a slow pace.Value Is Everythinggood stuff Ginger looking forward to this one dry again overnight 2mm put on and very windy this morning
Some more Moore masterclass and some poor commentary from Cattermole. The winner was right there in front from about two and a half furlongs out, still didn’t get a proper mention from him.
Well done winners.
Content not settling at all early. I glimpsed the in running betfair betting and she was double figures at one stage.
Value Is Everythingthanks ERL, Ginger I must admit early on i was worried about my ‘nailed on’ in the frame
I think Emily Upjohn is running out of excuses. She was right there with them, but had nothing more to offer inside the final 150yds. She’ll remain vulnerable to improving sorts, but still ran to her true form.
Think Ryan’s ride there was better than the one he gave City of Troy – she really didn’t help him early by pulling very hard but he managed to save enough of her energies to stay on and win.
Re Emily, I just think she has regressed a little to the point where the WFA concession makes her very beatable against the younger brigade of horses that are rated in the 110-115 area. At her best she was 121 but it has been a long time since she ran to that level and even if she did she would likely still be vunerable to these same horses.
I agree LD, I think Emily has regressed and would’ve won that pretty easily at her best.
You do have to wonder what happened between last year’s King George and the Sheema Classic. That was a long time off the track. Temperament has changed. Does not seem to settle like she did when at her best. …And although I thought originally she lost the Pretty Polly through Shoemark going for home too soon. It could be she just does not find much in the closing stages these days. The hood helped for a while but not anymore and didn’t work without it either today. Think I’d now rate her with at least half a squiggle.
You Got Me stayed on past Emily. With the considerable gap back to the field I’d say she ran better than her Irish Oaks victory.
What happened to Queen Of The Pride? Never figured.
Content (by Galileo)’s victory is a good sign for her close relation Bedtime Story (By Frankel). However, with Content winning at 12f in Group 1 company; will Coolmore train Bedtime Story for the Oaks rather than 1000 if they have others for the Newmarket classic?
Value Is EverythingGinge – I think Bedtime Story (who incidentally runs on Saturday in the G2 7F Debutante Stakes) will likely start out in the 1000g as a stepping stone for the Oaks.
She still holds entries in the Moyglare (7F), Rockfel (7F) and Fillies Mile along with the Cheveley Park (6F) but I could well see her after Saturday going straight to the Fillies Mile leaving either Fairy Godmother or Lake Victoria for the Moyglare instead (they also have all the same entries mentioned above too).
The Moyglare could be a very hot renewal this season as Babouche is also entered and would most likely start as favourite.
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