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For what it is worth here is my take on the world hurdle:
Big Bucks – superb horse but age/price means i’ll take him on.
Annie Power – Never been past 21f!!! I have to take her on, a mare that short with such a question mark. I’m prepared to take a chance on getting her beat.
At Fishers Cross, always seemed a soft ground horse. It won’t be. Still can’t get away from the Knockara beau prescence in the last race.
Zarkandar exposed.
Reve de sivola, had his chances before why win now?
Salubrious seems held by more of thet.For me it is a bet on Rule the World – love Mouse Morris. The horse looked decent last time out. Has track form – The new one only beat him in the Neptune, seriously solid looking race last year. Should stay three miles at cheltenham. for me 10-1 is just too big.
They said the other night that Big Bucks couldn’t lift his head off the ground for two weeks after his last run. I find that seriously worrying if it’s true
Some thoughts on the issue of stamina for the World Hurdle:
a) The race is not a stiff test of stamina, and hasn’t been since it was switched to the New Course 20 years ago. The standard time is 5m 41s, which is pretty quick for 3 miles on an undulating track and I’ve assumed since 1994 that I’m dealing with a race run over about 2m 7f.
b) The first two home last year were both 9-y-olds, neither of whom had ever run over 3 miles in their lengthy hurdling careers.
c) Over the years, much money has been on offer to those backing horses stepping up in trip when their stamina is questioned. To mention just a few, Desert Orchid, Best Mate and Kauto Star were all dismissed by many pundits as having no chance of staying 3 miles, and there have been plenty of others. In general, if you trust the trainer, trust his judgement about distance until proven otherwise.
Searching for evidence on Annie Power, the only negative I could find was that her sire has never produced a winner over three miles, and it would be pretty unusual to have the World Hurdle as your first. But Annie Power is from his first crop, so he’s probably had very few runners that have even tried the trip.
I expect her to win (and I’m a huge Big Bucks fan as he has won me a small fortune starting 2009), but if she is beaten, I very much doubt it will be down to the trip – much more likely to happen because she fails to settle and beats herself.
Big Bucks seems to have drifted a lot recently. Not sure if this is because everyone has worked out Annie Power is the real thing or some bad vibes have come out re BB.
Maybe some each way value in the rest of the field as both the first two in the betting have question marks against them.
Some thoughts on the issue of stamina for the World Hurdle:
a) The race is not a stiff test of stamina, and hasn’t been since it was switched to the New Course 20 years ago. The standard time is 5m 41s, which is pretty quick for 3 miles on an undulating track and I’ve assumed since 1994 that I’m dealing with a race run over about 2m 7f.
b) The first two home last year were both 9-y-olds, neither of whom had ever run over 3 miles in their lengthy hurdling careers.
c) Over the years, much money has been on offer to those backing horses stepping up in trip when their stamina is questioned. To mention just a few, Desert Orchid, Best Mate and Kauto Star were all dismissed by many pundits as having no chance of staying 3 miles, and there have been plenty of others. In general, if you trust the trainer, trust his judgement about distance until proven otherwise.
Searching for evidence on Annie Power, the only negative I could find was that her sire has never produced a winner over three miles, and it would be pretty unusual to have the World Hurdle as your first. But Annie Power is from his first crop, so he’s probably had very few runners that have even tried the trip.
I expect her to win (and I’m a huge Big Bucks fan as he has won me a small fortune starting 2009), but if she is beaten, I very much doubt it will be down to the trip – much more likely to happen because she fails to settle and beats herself.
Interesting angle on stamina – I had always assumed that because Kempton winners reputedly often disappoint at Cheltenham and Cheltenham races are generally run quite fast that stamina was at a premium. Maybe the Kempton thing is more to do with handedness and flat v undulating tracks. As you say, if the horse hasn’t failed at a longer trip then one can reasonably assume it has a chance.
More Of That has a bizarre and fascinating profile.
No flat runs, no bumpers and absolutely hacks up in maiden hurdle aged 4 (not a juvenile race). I think its fair to say connections were taken by surprise by that as AP was on something else and he was 20’s! He then has a year off, before winning two handicaps and then strolling home in a Grade 2 barely turning a hair!
He is very much the fly in the ointment and I don’t know what to make of him at all to be honest.
Having said all that – At Fishers Cross is massive at a double figure price isn’t he? Massive step forward LTO, festival form, and young enough to still be on the upgrade. I’m excited about More of That, but the pragmatist in me is leaning toward AFC.
Best Stayers’ for years in prospect IMO.
A fascinating race, right enough. Big Bucks has long had the biggest engine in racing imo – hurdles and fences, but he’s covered over 105 racing miles. Cleeve indicated to me that he’s lost little if any of his power so AP will have a fight on her hands, especially on faster ground than she might care for.
Still, according to the twitterati, a sizeable gamble is building for the mare. She’s as low as 11/8 as I write – 4s BB who might drift further.
A bit like the supposed two horse Denman-Kauto race, there could be an Imperial Commander waiting in the wings here. More of That is unbeaten too. Cel Halo and Zark will enjoy this change of ground.
AFC’s chance will depend on the horse’s wellbeing if his two early season runs are anything to go by. He looked to me to be suffering in both races, and not just when jumping. Trainer them mentioned a trip to a back specialist in Ireland, but it seems that didn’t happen. She mentioned something about arthritis in AFC in the past, so it would be a chancy bet (though a good ante-post result for me).
Very much looking forward to this World Hurdle
- Total Posts 764
Need Annie Power for this treble to hit, come on!!!
£31 returns £1500
Vautour 7/2
Faugheen 11/4
Annie Power 15/8If BB was back to his best then 2/1 would be a good bet. But ran only ok on reappearance so I’d need quite a bit bigger. 4/1 does sound a value price to me. However…
If BB is doing anything like what he used to do at home, then surely those that truly "know" would not allow BB to get anywhere near 4/1?
A case of the price being too
big
to be value? If you see what I mean?
No matter what Paul Nicholls says, may be after such a hard race on heavy ground on reappearance he’s gone backwards?
If those "in the know" with BB feel he’s not up to it they might think AP is the one to get on. However, although I believe she will, is not sure to stay or (more importantly) to go on the ground. I’ve had a saver on @ 3/1, but it’s getting ridiculously short.
My main bet is MOT, but BB’s pacemaker CH could surprise a few, 50 looks too big to ignore. Will Jacob have the last laugh?
Value Is EverythingNeed Annie Power for this treble to hit, come on!!!
£31 returns £1500
Vautour 7/2
Faugheen 11/4
Annie Power 15/8Hope she wins for you Ben.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Thanks Ginge, think your assessment of BB may be right, always thought Nichols would have the horse 100% ready for the big world hurdle return but the fact he’s been drifting ever since his comeback run isn’t too promising! Difficult to pick between the outsiders!
Ginger, I think you are spot on with the BB’s senario. I love the horse and he was one of my bankers on three trebles I had, unfortunately all three are down as The New One was beaten. I felt BB was a cracking bet, although I had him bet before AP was declared as a definite runner.
I would still think he had a very good chance….been there, done that…but as you alluded to, the Nicholls yard is not slow in putting the money down when they fancy one of theirs, so the drifting is a worry.
It will obviously in part be because of AP, but being out to 4/1 now makes me wonder if there is more to it than that.
Worrying
Need Annie Power for this treble to hit, come on!!!
£31 returns £1500
Vautour 7/2
Faugheen 11/4
Annie Power 15/8Good luck Ben.
it will be squeaky bum time come 3.20 tomorrow.
love it…..
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Need Annie Power for this treble to hit, come on!!!
£31 returns £1500
Vautour 7/2
Faugheen 11/4
Annie Power 15/8I’ve always been a Big Bucks fan Ben, but I’m beginning to think the tide has turned. I think you are on to a winner there my friend
I think this is the most exciting WH in a long, long time. My heart and my wallet will both be cheering on Bucksy, although my head thinks AP could well be the Real Deal, and yet I can see something else (The Zarkster, maybe?) doing an IC.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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