World Hurdle

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2015 World Hurdle

This topic contains 74 replies, has 28 voices, and was last updated by  homersimpson 4 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #500100
    The Young Fella
    The Young Fella
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    The World Hurdle has a solid knack of finding out the non-stayers. Many have tried to get away with being a little soft, but none have got home.

    Oscar Whisky, Sentry Duty, Hardy Eustace, Annie Power and Kasbah Bliss all tried and couldn’t last home. Some of them even won today’s race. With Reve De Sivola in the race, especially given the way he won the Long Walk, there will probably be one the fastest paces in years.

    #500110
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    I didn’t think Vaniteux paid much of a compliment to The New One today.

    Given that some people expected the step up in trip to suit him today, I found it disappointing he couldn’t beat Rock On Ruby at the weights.

    Rock On Ruby loves Cheltenham but he’s ten years old now and the proximity of Olofi, rated only 137, doesn’t make it look a great race.

    Did Vaniteux really get home today? I thought he looked a bit tired on the run-in and having been 6 lengths in front of Olofi when running behind The New One, he was only half that margin ahead today, not really suggesting that the step up in trip helped.

    Nicky Henderson has said that they will look for better ground and a different track for Vaniteux, not exactly indicators that stamina is his forte.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #500112
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5703

    The World Hurdle has a solid knack of finding out the non-stayers. Many have tried to get away with being a little soft, but none have got home.

    Oscar Whisky, Sentry Duty, Hardy Eustace, Annie Power and Kasbah Bliss all tried and couldn’t last home. Some of them even won today’s race. With Reve De Sivola in the race, especially given the way he won the Long Walk, there will probably be one the fastest paces in years.

    Some questionable assumptions there, TYF. Kasbah Bliss stayed on well to run Inglis Drever to a length, albeit he got stuffed the following year. Much too soon to say Annie Power failed for lack of stamina, I think, in her sole attempt at the trip. Oscar Whisky was another who stayed on well in a heavy ground Cleeve, just failing to catch RDS. This year, he ran no sort of race and looked beaten from the 2nd hurdle, though he’d previously been beaten by Big Buck’s in the WH.

    Anyway, at 7s I wouldn’t be willing to back RoR, but there’s enough juice in the 14s imo to take the chance he’ll stay. He certainly seems in very good heart at the moment – perhaps the most settled and ‘confident’ I’ve seen him.

    I’d still rather Cole Harden saw them all off the premises, and I think there’s more to come from him. Whether it will be enough is another matter, as he probably just lacks the class despite his youth and improvement. Having watched the race again, he wasn’t really running on at the end as it looked. The others were slowing.

    Roll on March…

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #500118
    stevecaution
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    I have been thinking for a while now that the reason why Hurricane Fly was 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle, and still 20/1 after beating Jezki, might just be because they could aim him at The World Hurdle.

    With the way Faugheen has been performing, and the knowledge that The Fly has not been quite his best in a couple of Champion Hurdles, it might not be the worst call in the world to switch the older horse to the longer race and hope his class can help him offset the extra distance.

    Hurricane Fly has won numerous times on heavy ground over 2 miles and his one attempt at 2 and a half miles saw him win The Hatton’s Grace Hurdle on soft ground from Solwhit (A future World Hurdle Winner) at the end of 2010

    Of course stamina is not guaranteed but the slower pace of a World Hurdle should help and Hurricane Fly brings class and an unmatched strike rate proven over many grade 1 races into a race where his opponents would look one hell of a lot less exciting in comparison.

    My betting slip will be in the bin if they line up on the Tuesday and Hurricane Fly comes under orders for the Champion Hurdle but, at 25/1, I think it’s worth the risk, when looking at the rest of the contenders, and seeing obvious enough reasons to be concerned about the question mark/odds ratio, and ask if there is value in there.

    Quite a few bookies are quoting Hurricane Fly and his odds vary greatly, right down to as low as 7/1.

    It’s part hunch, part logic and probably part madness but I have taken a chance that Mullins may pop The Fly into the longer race and let Faugheen strut his stuff in The Champion Hurdle.

    Fingers crossed:-

    Hurricane Fly 25/1 The World Hurdle

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #500141
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    365 are thinking along the same lines, Steve, as they go just 7s HF NRNB (as they are now for all 4 championship races).

    PPower go 25s, and I have found in the past that they’re particularly well informed about the intentions of Irish trainers.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #500142
    The Young Fella
    The Young Fella
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    In the year Kasbah Bliss was second, the World Hurdle was not run on its usual course. I get confused between which is the Old Course and which is the New Course, but it was the less testing of the two that year. When reverted to the usual configuration, he was properly stuffed.

    It’s hard to claim Oscar Whisky as a stayer. As connections went for a very awkward and eventually fatal chasing career at 2m 4f, he clearly had no prospects as a staying hurdler.

    #500148
    stevecaution
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    PPower go 25s, and I have found in the past that they’re particularly well informed about the intentions of Irish trainers.

    You could be right Joe but Ladbrokes only go 12/1 and they aren’t too shabby at gauging the market either. I find it interesting that they have The Fly shorter for The World Hurdle than they do for The Champion Hurdle.

    The good thing about these 25/1 shots is that you don’t need to risk much money. I think there is some awful value out there for The World Hurdle and would probably single out Rock On Ruby at 8/1 :shock:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #501177

    Gdc1
    Member
    • Total Posts 567

    I will be dumbfounded if HF goes here – even at his age he will make the young pretenders go. For this race I am on Zarkandar EW at nice prices and have allowed my heart to make me back RoR to win just because it’d make for an awesome story.

    Saying that IF Jonjo gets More of That back to his best he wins!!

    #501179
    stevecaution
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    It’s highly doubtful Hurricane Fly will line up here but I just had a thought about what the Mullins team might do if Jezki were to beat Hurricane Fly comfortably in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

    After beating Jezki the last twice, Hurricane Fly is odds on to do the hat-trick in two weeks time. Most punters seem to be taking the view that Jezki won’t be at his best until March but you would think that they should be getting him somewhere near his peak for the next meeting with The Fly, if for no other reason that giving the horse a chance for a confidence boost through actually winning for a change.

    If Jezki

    were

    to win cosily, it would leave Willie Mullins and the owners with a question as to whether it would be realistic that they could turn the form around at Cheltenham, where Jezki seemed at his best last year, and Hurricane Fly didn’t. In that case you

    might

    say to yourself that you have the hot favourite for the race anyway and looking at the World Hurdle you see a race headed by a horse who flopped and needed an operation in the aftermath. No disrespect to the 3 milers but they haven’t suckled at the same teat that Hurricane Fly did on his way to legendary status.

    I would find it fascinating if he did turn up, not to mention potentially lucrative, but it’s a real left-field longshot.

    Stan James at 25/1 are the stand out of the bigger firms now. He’s generally a good bit shorter than that, with two firms going 7/1, one firm 8/1 and three firms 10/1. There seem to be enough firms keeping on the right side of him with their odds to hold out hope he might turn up.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #501553
    DiamondGeezer
    DiamondGeezer
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    • Total Posts 439

    Entries are out

    http://www.theirishfield.ie/more-of-tha … es-172715/

    #501557

    TheObserver
    Member
    • Total Posts 66

    To be honest if Hurricane Fly would run a 3mile race the owners and trainers would seem to me have no clue about his strength and weaknesses. A 3miler has complete different physical makeup than this fella, one has just to compare Moreof That or Annie Power to him, they have much more scope and stamina. The Fly is a perfectly small medium sized fella where everything is in right proportion to give him that turn of foot he shows us, but to enter him over 3miles would mean to take all his natural given talent out of him. Hes got the best turn of foot over the distance of 2miles.

    #501561
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    On Sportinglife.com, Ben Linfoot makes a pretty good case for Un Temps Pour Tout who is a general 14/1 chance. Ladbrokes were going 40s. I had a bet and prepared to come on and post the value here, but they’ve quickly gone 25s. Still, that’s much higher than anyone else.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #501578
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    To be honest if Hurricane Fly would run a 3mile race the owners and trainers would seem to me have no clue about his strength and weaknesses. A 3miler has complete different physical makeup than this fella, one has just to compare Moreof That or Annie Power to him, they have much more scope and stamina. The Fly is a perfectly small medium sized fella where everything is in right proportion to give him that turn of foot he shows us, but to enter him over 3miles would mean to take all his natural given talent out of him. Hes got the best turn of foot over the distance of 2miles.

    It’s a moot point now as he’s not been entered. C’est La Vie, that was the risk and why he was 25/1.

    What you said was correct but I just feel Hurricane Fly is getting on now and I think class can always offset other weaknesses when changing discipline.

    Barring mud, I can’t see Hurricane Fly having the pace. The New One came past him after being hampered last year and he’ll do so again this year. I’d love to be wrong but I think Ruby is havering when he says it’s hard to pick between The Fly and Faugheen.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #501607
    The Young Fella
    The Young Fella
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    I did likewise, Steeplechasing. Un Temps Pour Tout doesn’t fall too far behind the best of More Of That if you take his form literally.

    The Pipes are the best at getting horses back from a break A1 so I wouldn’t be worried if goes to Cheltenham without a run.

    #503064
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5488

    Pretty underwhelmed by most of the contenders so far. I haven’t been sold on the Irish horses and the Cleeve horses look no better to me.

    The two that interest me need to bounce back to form: More Of That and Beat That. More Of That has reportedly had a wind op and I’ve no idea if he goes straight there or has a prep run. Beat That could run in the Rendlesham if the ground isn’t too bad and I liked how he shaped on his seasonal debut. He was a very good novice last season so will be interesting to see if he can make the step into open company.

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