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Hugh Taylor (pricewise of the internet) Is going for TREVE FOUNTAIN and he will be of course well backed. I haven’t looked at the card yet or gone over the runners but will do so.
It is an apprentice hands and heels race so lots of things change about the make up of this race.
For a start, the whip goes out of the window and the weights and jockey skills come into sharp focus. I don’t naturally go against Hugh’s pick but there is often value lurking elsewhere as the price gets dropped straight away. Two very good winners for him over the weekend, one of which I also selected at 12/1. So if there is something as good or maybe just maybe better I will try and find it. Draw and weights are key here. One other factor which is often disregarded could prove crucial here……..non runners.They all stand their ground so here goes.
Sparkle in his eye
Peachey carnaham
Jolis legacy
Using the 369 system are the selections here.
Combination tricast.
Best top weight middle weight and bottom weight. Stall 2 and 3 have figured strongly the last few years, stall 2 placing when three was an absentee twice and stall 3 placing last time.
A small win bet on each of those. Some of these jockeys are seeking their first win but the bottom weight has an experienced rider on board. These selections give a spread of most of the field through both draw and weights stall 2 to 9 and second top weight to bottom weight. So only the top weight is not covered.
The four year draw data puts PEACHEY CARNAHAM right in there as does his tumbling mark.
I very rarely make selections hours before as so much changes in the complexion of a race in the last hour, price moves, paddock evidence, weather, withdrawals which make a world of difference in chosing the horses.
There are several horses marked up as falling below or matching their last winning marks and this race really is a wide open affair but I’ve gone for the draw data from the last few years and thrown individual form out of the window. If any race can follow a trend it could be one where the jockeys have to follow a style or pattern which brings the weights and draw into play.
What is important is not if this works today but to follow a pattern once it has been established and it will eventually work.The arguments against that are an oft chanted mantra of “keep making the same mistakes…”
Birdie Bowers disproved that school of thought recently.A nice winner with funds easily covering the other two win bets and the tricast attempt. Next time I do one of these there will be a staking plan. Certainly went better than other punts today!!
SPARKLE IN HIS EYE a comfortable winner.
The winning stalls were 3,6,7.
So the top weights held sway.
And the three, six, nine was expressed as closely as possibly within the confine of the top four runners.
Interestingly Treve fountain missed the break and was effectively a non runner. That left the top four in the weights clear of the field.
In retrospect by not including the top weight I was throwing the baby out with the bath water. I went for the 3 6 9 expressed in the horse numbers rather than the draw.Figures22-2211211-78-24110-960000940339-1
Southwell 6pm
Class three.
OSTILLO is my choice here.
Hugh goes for a horse who is going to a new yard and has not won at the trip.
To be fair I see where he is coming from.
My runner has not won here but has won at Royal Ascot the Brittania cup. Redcar and Longchamp, Doncaster and leafy.
Won a seven furlong claimer two weeks ago and runs off a pound lower ( ratings)
Admittedly had to take a massive drop in class to win a class 6 last time but it does help a horse to regain confidence.
Big issue is he gives nearly 2 stones to some rivals, but does at least come to a new track in winning form as did yesterdays winner.
The other key factor here is the jockey
Grace McEntee.
Riding for the family and comes here straight from winning last night in the last at Wolverhampton for her only ride today and that clinches it for me.
I would normally err on the side of caution and go for an each way bet, but this looks to me as though they are going all out to win here and I think it has every chance with jockey and horse in form. The draw in stall 2 may prove ideal as an extreme draw giving plenty of cover in a small field. Notably when in trouble last night on her runner Grace didn’t panic and shook the reins and pushed on
on to win a shade cosily.
OSTILLO
Win.
10/1 or better.
If necessary take the place option as insurance.
Figures22-2211211-78-24110-960000940339-1
All of this horse’s form comes in clusters as the figures indicate and he may well be about to run up a sequence after being off the mark in better class events.
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I went down the “form in the book ” route and Ostillo didn’t perform up in class again.
Hats off to Hugh he was absolutely spot on with his choice.
Mykonos st John and the stables other runner was second. It is worth posting his write up from yesterday because his rationale was sound,,
“There isn’t a lot that I fancy strongly at today’s Southwell cards, but in the 7f handicap (6.00) it might be worth chancing MYKONOS ST JOHN on his stable debut.He might need the run on his first start since October and it’s true that his best form to date has come over a mile, but he’s on a tempting mark after losing his way somewhat following a hat-trick on the all-weather last May.
Those three wins came at three different tracks, and he’s clearly well suited by an artificial surface when on song. The trip and his lack of a recent run are concerns, but although he seems the stable second string here behind Theotherside, who has an obvious chance, the market has been a poor indicator for Scott Dixon’s all-weather runners this winter – I make it that in the 16 races since December where the stable has had either two or three runners, the shortest-priced runner has been first home in only six of those races.
Mykonos St John has dropped to his last winning mark, and if he’s close to his best on his stable debut he could run a big race.”
This is going to be a lengthy thread, but it will throw up some nice winners to those who follow it from both Hugh and Sam.Published 9.14 – (further bet to follow)
YORKTOWN is still a maiden, but he’s been knocking on the door lately and looks to have a solid chance in the 1m4f classified event at Kempton (7.30).
He has shaped quite well on all three starts this year since returning from a break. He was left with a lot to do and didn’t get the clearest of runs in the straight when second behind a next-time-out winner over 1m4f at Lingfield on his seasonal debut in January, and then found a steadily-run 1m2f against him at the same track next time, outpaced before staying on again at the finish.
He was again unsuited by the steady tempo over 1m3f here last time and shaped as well as could have been expected in staying on from the rear into third.
The concern is that, despite the big field, there again might not be much pace on and he might again find himself too far back. At least he’s back at 1m4f, however, which promises to be his best trip both on running style and pedigree, and in a race which is high on numbers but low on quality, granted a reasonable track position he might be able to get off the mark.
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Not bad! within a few minutes of it going up.
That is Hugh’s selection I will look at the card and see what I think, but the price which is fairly low will most likely hold today.Interesting that Hugh’s selection today was third to my pick on Saturday Miss Sligo a 12/1 winner over Hugh’s selection Harbour project.
This looks a good race and Yorktown comes out again quickly after Saturday. I’m looking at the race and unlikely to have a firm opinion for a while. I’d be interested to see what Mark Usher has to say about his runners chances but I’m looking…..Four runners which merit closer consideration along with Hugh’s runner.
TILSWORTH LUKEY
Never ridden here before won 1/45 races.
Stopped in tracks when coming from the back recently and denied a clear run great chance if ridden more prominently under regular rider Marco Ghianni.
GLOBAL STYLE
Interesting stepping up to this trip with top jockey riding. Likely sort on the draw data. Last year’s winning stall and if stalls of all first three home last two years are added up and averaged stall ten comes up on the two year average.( Otherwise it is stall 12 Tilsworth Lukey. -11.55-)
HANNALITE
Beaten by a horse who has followed up since
SAVOY BROWN
That rarest of things in this event a last time out course and distance winner and unpenalised.No selection ultimately from myself but the ones listed along with Hugh’s selection should all run well.
TILSWORTH LUKEY stands out for me along with last time out winner Savoy Brown.
But as I’ve said they should all go well….Amazing selection by Hugh last night’s result.
Yorktown 1st
Savoy Brown 3rd.
Excellent as usual.Hugh goes for summer heights in the 6pm.
At the current prices there is still worth in a small each way there.
The two I like as winners are Bernard Spierpoint and Eh bah Gum both win.
Eh bah Gum has his second run for sprint king Kevin Ryan and was a close second at Southwell last time. This is a big drop in class for that runner.
Bernard Spierpoint comes here for the first time in the form of his life. He ran into Jeans MAITE last time and she was in stall 10 at Southwell and won by 3.5 lengths. The form was solid and she won again from the same draw next time. These are two different tracks but the wide draw proved crucial and Bernard Spierpoint comes here unexposed not having met any of these runners.
Drawn out of the way in stall 10. That draw has been crucial in his battles at Southwell.
Newcastle is different Gravy to Southwell but he still looks on the upgrade to me and can go very close again.———————————————-
Bernard Spierpoint was fourth.7pm
CLEAR ANGEL
Should win here.
STORM OVER
And
TARNHELM
Will be waiting in the wings if they go off too quickly.STORM OVER and CLEAR ANGEL
both Win
TARNHELM
E/w7.30
Horse numbers
1,3,6,9
Combination tricast
Added
@ 7.19
DREAMSELLER
Each way.
Tim Easterby runner bang in form and this type of contest ideal. Top weight here and not on a particular winning mark but capable jockey on board and every chance.Hugh Taylor’s selection today is
Dynakite
Win 15/4
5.30 Kempton.
He has been away since his last play due to a family bereavement.
Condolences to Hugh and welcome back.
I will be analysing this race in detail later hopefully to assess this and other runner’s chances.
7pm
Hugh’s selection here is
Della Mare
On the face of it this looks a more compelling selection and the rationale behind it suggests the clockwork and the form franking from two runners in behind on this horse’s race at Chelmsford, along with the handicappers leniency, that this one may be very hard to beat.
The Irish website is down at the moment so a closer look later but at first view his assessment of Della Mare looks the stronger of the two.Without the Irish website, I won’t be playing in these two races.
1 The second race is a classified
and there is little value in betting an overbet favourite here. All running off levels here. The draw data will play a part here along with current form and race history.
2 very similar story with the 5 30.
There will be something much better in the card if not the race itself for the above reasons. More later perhaps.
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Good winner in the first race for Hugh.
See February’s fancies’ thread where the big priced winner was selected in INDEPENDENCE DAY in the other race at Kempton.There has been some success analysing Hugh’s selections and the races they run in. The best so far has been independence day, which I selected against Hugh’s pick.
I am not in opposition to his picks they are often very good. Value emerges though as other horses go unconsidered and go off at great prices.
“Here is Hugh’s selection today.
Published 8.35 –
“SOVEREIGN MOON’s latest run is easy to forgive, and she might be able to bounce back to her previous course and distance form in the first division of the 7f handicap at Southwell (12.52).She produced what was just about a career-best effort when winning here in first time blinkers two outings ago, and she’s only a pound higher here.
She finished well held in seventh next time, but was taken towards the far rail by her rider and had little chance in the circumstances with the remainder of the field racing centre to stands side.
There are a few with chances here, but she does seem to have improved for the fitting of headgear and might be able to resume her progress today.”
Hopefully I will check out that card later and see where else there is value too.Trevie fountain
Street Poet
Makyon
Sovereign moon
Al suil EilleHorse numbers (not draw numbers)
1,5,8,10,11.
Combination tricast
MAKYON
Each way
AL SUIL EILLE
Win.
Sovereign moon was a winner two runs again and is taken to exploit a low draw and run well again today.
He comes out of a race at wolves in January which has thrown up multiple winners(6), including Million reasons (twice), Axel Jacklin,(1,2,2) and numerous placed runners.
All of the selections are drawn low and are spreadout through the handicap from top weight to bottom weight.
Makyon has struggled to shake off a rating of 95 achieved in an ordinary stakes race over shorter trip as a two year old.
Ran down the field in the Coventry that year and it has been downhill ever since.
Gone to Mark Usher and the stable are feeling their way round with this runner since he arrived from Mark Johnston and the drop down to the basement 45 mark means he runs here on a career low.
First time cheekpieces worn with David Probert last time are dispensed with and for the first time in a while the habit of going down early has ceased.
ALL SUIL EILLE
Is clear top weight now due to the non runner and looks head and shoulders above many of these.
There are lots of well treated and well backed runners here and I’ve gone with the low drawn runners and of course it could go totally the other way. Micky Hammond has one in the centre of the handicap also well treated. The Retriever who should also run very well judged on recent runs …..First second and fourth. Fourth runner Makyon missed the break and did well to get into the argument fourth at 50/1.
AL SUIL EILLE a good winner.
The Retriever as noted beforehand, ran well and will be a scorer again soon led for a long way before swamped in the straight, did well from the draw. Trevie fountain looks set to strike very soon….
So close to landing the tricast there.Already posted in February fancies but for continuity…..
5.30
NEWCASTLEHugh has highlighted the fresh reappearance chances of
SAISONS D’OR
Win
While
EXCHEQUER
Each way
Is not a frequent visitor to this track.
Bombed on one of the few trips here.
Well treated runner and won six times at the trip.
Perhaps at the start of the season is the right time to catch this one.
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