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Hugh’s runners were both beaten into second place yesterday firstly by Resilience, and a David Evans horse going places. Million reasons.
Both top rated and selected by yer man Sam.Hugh had a very good winner two days ago savoy brown I’m sure I’ve put that one up in February to good effect.
Today’s offering from Hugh goes in the 8pm tonight
Twentysharesofgrey.
I will look over that race and give my tuppence worth once the make up of the race develops.
As you know I am very much at the post as the handicap is in my opinion a very movable feast influenced by withdrawals and other factors. Hopefully something in the “hour” before the race.8pm
TENTH CENTURY
Each way
14/1 or betterMarco Ghianni rides and this runner fits the draw data and several other factors which can be looked at later. Won stepped up to a mile for the first time.
Beat no diggetty best part of a length. Subsequently, runner up twice beaten a nose before winning.
Had another run next time out and bounced. Winning jockey back on and dropped in trip. (Big negative, as won readily looking as though he’d benefit from going over further) Cheekpieces on for first time.
Windsor castle runner on second run. (Unplaced)I’m going to ressurect this thread as I’ve been doing a bet comparison on another forum playing or opposing Hugh’s selections. Don’t look for Wolverhampton today it’s not on, merely the title of the thread over a race he tipped a couple of years back.
Here is Hugh’s write up for Doncaster 3:50
There may be a few minutes to read up on this race maybe not,,,,In the extended 1m2f handicap at Doncaster (3.50), BUCEPHALUS might not be out of this despite a couple of obvious concerns.
He’s 4lb out of the handicap here, returning from a break and racing in a higher grade than usual, but he’s an out-and-out mudlark who has plenty of form on a soft surface that entitles him to serious consideration here.
He was in control from a fair way out when winning after an absence of over a year over this course and distance at the Lincoln meeting, and his time was over two seconds faster than that recorded by another mudlark There’s The Door, who ran away with the 3yo handicap earlier on the card.
He again ran well on testing ground when pulling clear with Splendent (now rated 13lb higher) at Windsor when last seen in May. This race might be a pipe-opener for a hurdling campaign, but given he can go well when fresh and relishes testing ground, he might be worth chancing.Buchephalas
Each way
EUCHAN GLEN
Win
Jockey not seen for a week three rides here today two for this yardGoes to show give yourself time to research a race the next one I’ll cover is the 7pm Chelmsford. I’ve already successfully covered the Doncaster race which saw Ballymount Boy get up comfortably and also tipped up the third in contrast to the pro tipsters effort.
Here is the whole of Hugh’s tips I covered the first race in the soul selection.Published 9.03, 9.18, 9.25, 9.39 – all selections online.
It’s not surprising to see Ballymount Boy installed as a short-priced favourite in the 2yo 6f Listed event at Doncaster (2.45), as his standout form came when second over 6f on testing ground in the Richmond Stakes and he gets those conditions for the first time since that run.
However, there’s a chance he might be over the top this late in the season and I’d rather side each-way with AL SHABAB STORM, whose recent Goodwood win might have been a better performance than the bare form suggests.
It might not have been the most visually impressive run at Goodwood, because Al Shabab Storm took a while to wear down the 59-rated pacesetter.
However, he was well on top at the finish, and both his overall time and sectionals compared very favourably with those of the 0-95 handicap that followed.
The evidence of the clock suggests he’s much better than his opening mark of 86 suggests, and it’s interesting that Andrew Balding is quite happy to bypass the handicap route.
I think there’s a good chance he will take another step forward here and he might be able to provide the stable with its second winner by sire Advertise within 24 hours.
At Chelmsford (7.00) STYLE OF LIFE looks worth backing on her return to the all-weather in the 1m handicap.
She made all in a good time figure at Wolverhampton two outings ago on her handicap debut, and I’d be inclined to forgive her below-par run on turf at Brighton next time.
She was too keen under a hold-up ride when tried here before, also still at a very preliminary stage of her career at that stage. Back on the all-weather and only 3lb higher than at Wolverhampton, she might be able to resume her progress and it will be no surprise to see her make all.
So Sleepy won with plenty up her sleeve and should be bidding for a hat-trick in the closing 5f handicap at Chelmsford today (8.30), having been a desperately unlucky loser on her penultimate start, but her last two races have been notably weak affairs and MICK’S SPIRIT might be a tougher nut to crack.
Mick’s Spirit ran his best race for a while over this course and distance, back to the sort of level on the clock that he was recording when regularly running well off higher marks last winter.
It’s possible that So Sleepy will improve again, but Mick’s Spirit looks the percentage call at the prices this morning.
In the extended 1m2f handicap at Doncaster (3.50), BUCEPHALUS might not be out of this despite a couple of obvious concerns.
He’s 4lb out of the handicap here, returning from a break and racing in a higher grade than usual, but he’s an out-and-out mudlark who has plenty of form on a soft surface that entitles him to serious consideration here.
He was in control from a fair way out when winning after an absence of over a year over this course and distance at the Lincoln meeting, and his time was over two seconds faster than that recorded by another mudlark There’s The Door, who ran away with the 3yo handicap earlier on the card.
He again ran well on testing ground when pulling clear with Splendent (now rated 13lb higher) at Windsor when last seen in May. This race might be a pipe-opener for a hurdling campaign, but given he can go well when fresh and relishes testing ground, he might be worth chancing.
HUGH’S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
2.45 DONCASTER
1pt each-way AL SHABAB STORM (13-2 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes & 6-1, 11-2 general)3.50 DONCASTER
1pt win BUCEPHALUS (9-1 & 8-1 general)7.00 CHELMSFORD
1pt win STYLE OF LIFE (3-1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet & 11-4, 5-2 general)8.30 CHELMSFORD
1pt win MICK’S SPIRIT (7-2 bet365 & 10-3, 3-1 general)Here are my two runners for the 7pm
Chelmsford 7pm
Turn the tables
Each way
Meng tian
Win
In stall eight is the draw data horse with the highest stall and down below a winning mark.
Turn the tables in stall 1 is in the stellar opposite stall and with a seven pound claimer on board looks very nicely placed and expectations are not high which is ideal.Chelmsford 8pm
last date
win
hasnt won for two years. But hasn’t had the Urgings of arc winning jockey Luke Morris the whirling dervish before only course winner here and 8 lbs to play with…
MANY RIVERS
Eaxh way
mauden whose dropped a mile and also has a half stone in hand here
As promised,
A winner right away when
Mick’s Spirit
Bolted up.Today
This write up below is Hugh Taylor’s work and I don’t mind publishing it and if his rationale makes sense I might go along with it. Most likely I’ll go my own way with the physics. All is explained in the Alexander thread yesterday.
If there is anything from me on the races concerned it’ll go up in the Alexander thread ten minutes before the off.
Summary will take place the next day where I’ve played in the below races.Published 9.06, 9.38 – all selections online
GOGO YUBARI looked one to be interested in for nurseries at Kempton last time, and having shown clear signs of ability on all three starts, she makes a fair bit of appeal off what could prove a very lenient opening mark at Newcastle today (5.10).
She was set a very stiff task on her debut in a Listed race at Deauville in July (won by her stable mate Myconian) and her task wasn’t helped by being drawn widest of all, her start typical of a debutante in that scenario as she edged to her right when the stalls opened.
She made a promising move from the rear mid-race, wasn’t at all knocked about and all in all shaped with much more promise than the bare form suggests despite finishing last of the seven runners.It was a similar story at Nottingham next time, where she looked a big player for much of the race before weakening in the final furlong on what was very testing ground.
Upped to 6f at Kempton last time, she half-reared as the stalls opened and soon found herself at the back of the field. Still in last place turning for home, she made good progress from a long way back early in the straight – indeed, the published sectionals suggest she was fastest in the field from the 3f pole to the 2f marker – before her run flattened out.
Having shown more than the bare form suggests on all three starts to date, there’s a chance her opening mark of 65 understates her ability by a fair way. Unsurprisingly, her opening prices yesterday didn’t reflect that fact, but when I went through the race I thought she’d be a bet at 5-1+ so she looks worth backing at her prices this morning.
In the 6f handicap at Newcastle (4.35) FLASH THE DASH might be worth chancing on his first start since wind surgery.
He’d be thrown in off his current mark if returning to the pick of his form on the all-weather, and even the form of his seasonal debut 7th, beaten less than four lengths in a 0-85 handicap, would give him a chance in this 0-65 grade. He was racing off a mark of 73 that day, which at the time was a career-low mark, and he runs of 60 here on his first subsequent all-weather run.
He tends to race keenly and looks worth a try over this 6f trip on the all-weather, and if the wind surgery has helped at all he could be a big player.
HUGH’S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
4.35 NEWCASTLE
1pt win FLASH THE DASH (12-1 bet365, 11-1 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 17-2 Coral, Ladbrokes, 8-1 general)5.10 NEWCASTLE
2pts win GOGO YUBARI (12-1 bet365, 10-1 Betfair Sportsbook, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, 9-1 generalGoing good so will run with this thread again now that I’ve worked out more about Hugh’s MO rationale and other factors which combine to make some of selections very opposable and others very attractive to back.
I won’t list them here but as I’m employing the Alexander method in most races I do now, if they don’t tally up with his selection then they are goers.
What is written underneath is Hugh’s write up cut and pasted from ATR
The prices last approximately five minutes from publishing and there is no point chasing them as the bookies aligned to ATR or psychic and seem to already know Hugh’s selection and seem to have an uncanny knack or foresight to cut the prices moments before they are published to us hoi poloy. Notheless with no regard to non runners free energy and prevailing weather conditions and late jockey changes and a whole host of racings great uncertainties it is pertinent to wait bro view the oil painting 🖼 of a race once the canvas is dry ( or wet) and completed and believe it or not the final five minutes when you can see the full fabric of the race is the time I like to play.Published 9.02 & 9.22 – all selections online
RODBOROUGH has taken very well to the fitting of cheekpieces, and he can confirm that he’s still very well handicapped in the first division of the 5f handicap at Newcastle today (5.15).
He won twice at Southwell in August when first fitted with headgear and ran at least as well over this course and distance last time, unlucky to run into Castan, who had produced a career-best effort on his only previous all-weather start.
Rodborough was the only horse to give Castan a race in that 0-75 event, the pair clear of the remainder throughout the final furlong, and a 1lb rise looks lenient.He missed an engagement at Southwell a week later having reportedly not eaten up, but if he returns in the same form as last time, he’ll be hard to beat in this slightly lower grade.
ARLINGTON looks the type to do well in low-grade all-weather nurseries, possibly starting with the 5f event at Newcastle today (4.45).
He has shown ability in all three starts on turf, notably on his second outing at Redcar, when he was disputing the lead and looking a big player well inside the final 2f.
He probably wasn’t seen to best effect at Beverley last time, racing solo against the far rail on heavy ground, which was unlikely to have suited on pedigree.
Indeed, his sire Washington DC has a far better strike rate with his runners on the all-weather (over 14%) than on turf (under 5%), so it shouldn’t be surprising if Arlington runs a big race on his debut on an artificial surface.
HUGH’S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
4.45 NEWCASTLE
1pt win ARLINGTON (15-2 general, 8-1 bet365)5.15 NEWCASTLE
1pt win RODBOROUGH (3-1 general, 10-3 bet365, 16-5 BetVictor)No time to even look at a single race and just in and looking forward to the breeders cup tonight. Hugely busy and productive day in the field literally.
But some very bad news about a little lovable jack Russell who’s been a mainstay on my rounds.
So this is for Molly.
Hopefully, some winners in Ireland 🇮🇪 England 🏴 and USA 🇺🇸.
We’ll see.
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