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Due to the lacklustre betting opportunities over the jumps midweek (at least profitable betting opportunities) we’re starting the thread off with an AW tip.
6.55 Kempton (7f 0-90 2yo hcap)
Kananee 9/4
The selection, a Godolphin horse rated 90 is unsurpringly top of the weights in this 7f race but I believe he is a class above this lot, his price may not seem generous considering those he’s up against have solid and improving profiles, but they just won’t be able to reel in this lad. Saeed is in great form (221 with his last three runners) and we have the superb Atzeni in the saddle, he’ll surely bring out the best in this horse and the fact that Saeed calls upon Andrea for this mount is a tip in itself.
Kananee has had 3 runs so far and all were over 5f, he started a short priced favourite in his first two runs (in April and May), beating Monks Stand by over a length on debut. He then stepped up his form in May in a Novice race at York, he carried a 6lbs penalty that day and though he only won by a head to a 33/1 shot, the horse in 3rd was a length back with a length and similar distances to the 4th and 5th horses. Now the horse in 2nd that day (Medici Banchiere) was no fluke outsider as he won his next start by 10lengths before trailing the Hannon trained Mehmas by just 4 lengths at Newmarket and on his next start was 6lengths behind Godolphin trained Blue Point – both over 6f. Our selections next start was a disappointing performance in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, but I’m of the belief that the horse was unsuited by the soft ground and the fast pace, our lad doesn’t really want 5f and that race was just a bit too much. 7f at Kempton in a relatively small field will help this horse thrive. He has been off the track since that race and connections may have a big winter planned ahead for this horse. Sometimes a leap of faith is needed in this game and I’m happy to put my faith in old Saeed here, he has a good’n on his hands and wouldn’t have him out today at this time of year with top weight if he wasn’t confident. The fact that the horse started favourite on his first two starts shows they know he’s a proper horse and NOT your average Kempton handicap jobber.
Now for the other runners.
Colonel Frank 3/1
Rated 85 and ridden by AW favourite Adam Kirby this horse has won 2 of his last 3 races with the latter being over 7f at Goodwood. However neither of the horses he beat into 2nd on those occasions look anything special and the Godolphin horse he faces tonight will be a whole different kettle of fish, sure he has a chance with Kirby on board but unless the selection gets blocked off he won’t be able to keep up with the cruising speed and acceleration of our horse.Mutahaady 9/2
Rated 88 and has won 3 on the trot, was rated 69 for the first of those wins and can’t read too much at all into that race as there were a lot of donkeys involved. The second of those wins, while rated 74, was also against some pretty bad dross, the horse in 2nd that day (by just over a length) hasn’t finished closer than 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner in any of his other runs. This brings us to his most recent win, with a rating of 80, this was a 7f handicap at Epsom in which he won by half a length in late September. Again though, the horses in 2nd and 3rd that day just don’t do anything for me, rated in the mid 70’s they just don’t sparkle as anything special at all. This is a solid enough handicap horse who has beaten poor handicap horses, nothing to get excited about and nothing to be scared of.Himself 7/1
Trained by Hannon this horse won its maiden on his penultimate start by 3/4 of a length, rated 74 despite getting just over a stone from the selection this horse shouldn’t be good enough.The other horses in the race all have similar profiles to that of the Hannon horses, beating piss poor opposition before being beaten relatively soundly by anything good.
Expect our selection Kananee to be too good for these horses and for him to be rated 100+ before long and taking part in the big-prized AW races as the winter roles on.
Good opening bet, a lot of confidence behind this one on Oddschecker and he duly obliged.
Sorry this ones so late, backed it while I was on my lunch break in a shop and only just got in so couldn’t post earlier.
6.15 Newcastle (tonight)
Udontdodou 4/1 (we’ll call it 3/1 tho as that’s the price now)Class horse in the race, very respectably weighted/handicapped. Massive chance. Hanagan booked for a reason. Guest wouldn’t have sent this horse here for nothing.
No bets tomorrow. But a couple to note down for the Sandown Tingle Creek card at the start of December. Both are Gary Moore horses, I strongly suspect he will run one of these two in the 2m4f handicap hurdle and will most likely be backing whichever he sends.
Royal Battalion
Mr FickleApologies but no time for a proper write up tonight.
Saturday 12.45 Sandown
Desert Queen 4/1 (B365)The best hurdle form on offer, 20l behind Vroom Vroom Mag at Ascot over 3m but only 8lengths behind the mare at Cheltenham over the preferred 2 and a half miles which is tomorrows trip. Also Desert Queen beat Smart Talk by 12 lengths a few races before those against VVM and that’s very strong form. Harry Fry is in tremendous form and will have sent this mare here with some confidence I believe. Only worry could be the ground as she seems best on G/S, it’s raining a bit here at the moment (I live near Sandown) but not too heavy and I’m hoping the cold temperature will stop it getting too soft.
Ridiculous ride, only thing I can think of is they’re prepping her for a handicap at Chelt, maybe Coral Cup or Martin Pipe
Double for tomorrow via b365
1.30 Southwell – Un Prophete (11/10)
4.50 Wolv – Absolute Blast (evens)The first is the riskier of the two purely because it’s a low grade race but Un Prophete should really be a class above this lot.
Absolute Blast is a very good horse, still better than his rating suggests, blistering turn of foot.
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