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I’m certainly not alone in my views, Robbo.
It is a well known theory that crowd noise distracts and that many horses are distracted more when in front.Value Is EverythingSorry I’ve never been able to grasp the differences between effected and affected. But at least I know my there from their and they’re and my your from you’re.
Value Is EverythingJust consider another “fact” so far: How many horses fell first or second time round (just referring to the 3m+ races) in front of the stands? I tend to say less (maybe even far less) than in previous years, that’s why tend to lean towards Ginge’s opinion.
What difference does 3m make when assessing whether the crowd makes a difference to fallers in front of the stands?
Can’t be arsed to go through every day of last year and compare it to every day of this year but here is the Tuesday comparison for 2021 and 2020 all races of horses who fell in front of the stands.
Before we look let’s understand that there was 109 runners in 2020 compared to significantly lower 83 runners in 2021. Let’s also factor in that in 2020 the ground was significantly softer and therefor horses would be more tired at the business end of the race in 2020 and more likely to get a fall due to tiredness. By judging these 2 facts it’s a fair assumption to make that there would be significantly more fallers in 2020 (with the crowd) than in 2021.
There were 2 fallers in front of the stands in 2020 on the Tuesday compared to 1 faller in front of the stands on Tuesday in 2021.
It’s important to note that in 2021 they had the juvenile hurdle as the 6th race compared to 2020 when they had the novice hcap chase as the 6th race on the card. All other races were the same. The 1 extra faller in 2020 happened in the 6th race which was a novice chase which can be expected.Therefor we can clearly conclude after analysing the data that the crowd has made not any difference whatsoever in horses falling in front of the stands. Please note that Unseated Riders were not included as fallers for the obvious reason that an unseated jockey is not a fall.
I would suggest instead of leaning towards Gingers clearly failed theory about crowd noise you actually look at the facts.
And Ian how embarrassing for an ex journalist to highlight the use of the word effected over affected to try and belittle a forum member who has actually made very valid points without making any valid points yourself. Let’s not take away from the fact that you were correct though and I did use the wrong word, give yourself a pat on the back. I can see why you are an Ex journalist and not a current one 🤦♂️😂😂
If wanting to find the truth about whether race meetings favour prominent runners instead of judging one horse against your field… Below is taken from the Racing Post results:.Perhaps it would be fairer to judge all Front runners, prominent, tracked leaders and tracked or chased pace against those midfield and further back. Then you might…
Appreciate It: “Chased the clear leader” (ie raced second of…) 8 ran
Shishkin: Chased leaders, went clear. (Basically raced third early before going clear before 2 out). 5 ran
Vintage Clouds: Pressed leaders (always up with the leaders and the word “led” used three times). 16 ran
Bob Olinger: In touch with leaders. Led 2 out. 7 ran
Monkfish: Led or disputed lead. 6 ran
Heaven Help Us: Made all. 26 ran
Put The Kettle On: Led or disputed lead. 9 ran
Tiger Roll: Led, tracked leader (basically raced second or third of). 13 ran
Sky Pirate: Prominent on inner. 19 ran
Sir Gerhard: Made all. 14 ran
Allaho: Pressed leader, led at fast pace from 3rd. 11 ran
Flooring Porter: Made all. 15 ran
The Shunter: Led, tracked leader when headed (led again). 21 ranI’d say so far 13 winners have raced prominently.
If it were purely field size would you expect those who actually led from an early stage to be often in the largest fields?
Vintage Clouds “led” used three times 16 ran, Heaven Help Us made all 28 ran, Tiger Roll led and tracked leader 13 ran, Sky Pirate prominent 19 ran, Sir Gerhard made all 14 ran, Allaho Pressed and led 3rd 11 ran, Flooring Porter made all 15 ran, The Shuntner led and tracked leader when headed and led again 21 ran.Value Is EverythingDidn’t take it as belittling, Ian has his views and I have mine. No problem.
Don’t worry Robbo, I am often wrong. Just nowhere near as often as you.
This must be another conspiracy against you.Gone for your jab yet mate?
Value Is EverythingAh so after being proven incorrect that no crowd gives an advantage to front runners we now randomly quote the horses who also raced prominent (even though these results are no different to any other Cheltenham meeting in terms of horses who raced prominent- we have already acknowledged there have been more horses who made most of the running and won so far this year)and even have the audacity to include horses who’s description included ‘led’ at some point in the race. By the way every single winner of every single race in history the winner will have led at some point. By changing the original arguement you are basically admitting defeat on this topic.
Another classic tactic of somebody who is unable to win a debate is to attack with spelling mistakes or misuse of words as a means to deflect from the original debate and belittle the opposing argument that you are unable to counter with anything of worth. Changing the goalposts is another tactic and then completely changing subject is yet another tactic chosen by weak people. No I haven’t had my jab and nor will I be having a jab? I do not consent to being a guinea pig in a medical trial (eugenics program if we are going to call it what it really is). The Covid jab debate has no place on this topic though and is for the lounge. Please also be aware that encouraging people to take part in a medical trial (the Covid jab) without informing them it is still in its trial stages is in fact a crime under British law.
It was actually directed at Gingertipster in the course of my verbal jousting with him.
He robustly took it in good part, to his credit.
Apologies for any offence caused to anyone else – I hope it doesn’t AFFECT anyone’s enjoyment of the last day of the Festival as that was not the EFFECT I sought to have!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Another reason could be the softening up of the fences,especially the ones in the straight to lessen the amount of fallers in front the packed stands.
If the fences were as stiff and big(open ditches) as they used to be,I’m not sure there would be as many front runners going flat out being thrown at the fences.
Would love to know what the height of the 2nd last on the old course and the 4th last on the new course as they look very small now.That sounds more logical / plausible to me runandskip. Not neccessarily a bad thing either. I was in the stands for Kauto Stars crashing fall, and it wasn’t pleasant.
BUY THE SUN
Easier fences will also be attacked by the hold up horses just the same so I don’t see this as being a reason. Carlisle has the easiest fences in the country but I don’t see that as being a track that favours front runners.
It’s either pure chance (Nap) with a little bit of copycat thrown in.
For example the jockeys will have seen one horse make all, then another and some will be thinking 💡’hold up wait a minute (in an Oprah Winfrey voice), horses are winning from the front, I’m going to make all and go for it’.
Think he was explaining the reduction of fallers at the final fences Robbo, not the front running angle.
BUY THE SUN
Aha my apologies then, but I’m not sure there has been any significant difference in fallers at the final fence this year (though have only compared this years Tuesday to last years Tuesday so limited research from myself on that one).
This is all about opinion and evidence, Robbo. Relax.
If Front runners have an advantage those racing prominently should also have some sort of advantage over those held up. Therefore the record of those ridden prominently is entirely relevant. If we were discussing the merits of draw 10 having an advantage I hope you’d allow me to include the results of stall 9, 11, 8 and 12 in my evidence, because if stall 10 does have an advantage you’d expect those near it to also have at least some advantage over the others.
I have not included those who came from further back to lead a fair way out. Only those ridden prominently who’ve led some way out. Because my Horses Idling theory has obviously everything to do with positions not changing in the closing stages… Which also goes at least some way to explain the thread title… And I have consistently written in this thread about horses ridden prominently in this thread as well as front runners. So not I who’s suddenly moving the goal posts.
Take a look at how you’ve described me and my views in this thread, Robbo; all of which I’ve taken as banter. Thought you could take a little back. What have I said to get you so up in the air?
Got no problem you or anyone else thinking my theories are “rubbish, nonsense, fantasy, laughable, utterly flawed” or any other word you want to throw. It’s all just opinions after all and can’t see any way they can be proven wrong or right for that matter.
Value Is EverythingThere is no problem Ginger. I think it’s a ridiculous theory personally and you think it holds weight. That’s life.
From the front over 3 miles again….. BOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM Murdered them!!!!!!!
From the front! From the front! From the front!!!!!!!!!
As stated success breeds success. Jockeys on the good horses see horses make all and fancy a bit of the same.
Wouldn’t make a blind bit of difference to me if a horse was a hold up horse or a front runner or anywhere in between at this meeting, if I fancied it then I fancy it and as long as the jockey is competent then the best horse will win. Simple as that.
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