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Just to prove what fantasy it is that no crowds favours front runners at Cheltenham, in December there was 2 Cheltenham meetings (also with no crowds), out of the 15 races only one horse managed to make all and that was Storm Control in the Unibet Chase where only 2 other horses finished. The majority of the 14 other winners were held up.
It’s laughable to suggest that the crowd noise only effects the front runner and not the horse 1 length behind or the one 5 lengths back etc.
Silence favouring front/prominent runners is an interesting theory that might have merit, but a few races at Cheltenham this week is a woefully small sample from which to draw firm conclusions
For a bigger more robust sample, has anyone analysed races from the numerous other ‘big’ normally noisy meetings run since closed doors became the norm, and if so has a similar trend towards peace favouring the prominent been noticed
Furthermore, does the ‘fewer fallers’ theory put forward above by ExRubyLight have merit. Have there been fewer ‘business end’ fallers over the last year?
Blackmore was making her own noise after jumping the last on Allaho
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
From 21 races so far at this years festival only 3 horses have made all and won though a further 2 have almost made all but not quite all such as Allaho who led after the 2nd.
It’s not that crowd noise “only effects the front runner“, Robbo. It’s that it is most often the front runner who is most affected by crowd noise.
ie By no means all front runners are affected by crowd noise; it’s that of those affected by crowd noise the front runner is the most likely to be affected due to not having the company of others – most likely to be distracted.
Value Is EverythingAgain, you’re being a bit pedantic, Robbo:
If the leading horse is the one most likely to idle in the closing stages, then the front runner is the most likely to be leading towards the last fence. “Front runner” as in the one who’s in front most of the way. It doesn’t need to lead from the tapes going up to be described as the front runner. Otherwise you’dValue Is Everything“Blackmore was making her own noise after jumping the last on Allaho”.
I clocked that, christ she had plenty of wind left in her lungs after 2.5m riding tbf! Bit less subtle than a Fallon whistle to say the least.
BUY THE SUN
Load of rubbish. As they turn up the straight there is rarely a leader and then the pack all together behind. The fields are normally stretched out by the time they turn for home so the horse in 2nd is likely to be alone as is the 3rd etc in many races.
Nice theory but completely and utterly flawed.
The make all winners are in the minority even this year but there certainly has been a few more than is normally the case.
Logic dictates this is either just pure chance or down to smaller fields in general this year as it’s easier to boss a small field from the front than it is to boss a large field from the front.
I refuse to accept the crowd has anything whatsoever to do with it.
This is the Cheltenham Festival, Drone. Normally THE meeting with THE most crowd noise, therefore is THE meeting most affected by idling horses. So I wouldn’t expect as much of a difference at any other meeting – including other Cheltenham meetings.
Value Is EverythingLOL
…And you’re saying I am talking nonsense.
Of course “the made all winners are in the minority” Robbo; are you really trying to judge one horse in every race against the rest of every field. Of course The Field will win more races.
LOL
I see you’re not judging one horse against the field; you’re not even allowing Allaho to be judged as a front runner because he didn’t lead over the first. So there was absolutely no chance of a front runner winning in that race. Zero horses running for me and the whole lot for you.Be “logical” Robbo.
Point is that front or prominently ridden horses are winning more races than you’d expect.
Value Is EverythingSorry Ginger I forgot that it’s never possible for you to be wrong.
I clearly acknowledged that Allaho could be included even though he wasn’t strictly speaking a horse who made all. I clearly acknowledged that there have been more front runners win than is normal but as stated that is either down to pure chance or small fields being easier to boss.My apologies you were of course completely correct, how stupid of me. The 5 horses who (nearly) made all clearly won because there wasn’t any crowd noise but the 16 winners who didn’t make all were all horses who aren’t effected by crowd noise.
People can’t seriously think that a couple more front running winners than usual is anything to do with empty stands. Couldn’t have that for a second. And I hope the sample size does not become large, and long, enough for me to be proven incorrect!
BUY THE SUN
Horses are pack animals in the wild, Robbo; and racehorses take after a lot of the attributes of wild horses… Most racehorses are followers. So whether the 2nd or third horse is on its own doesn’t matter as much as you might think. They’re still able to see the leader and therefore less likely to idle than the leader.
I say “less likely” because the second horse is less likely to idle than the leader, but the second is also more likely to idle than a horse in the pack. Third horse less likely to idle than the second and leader but…
It’s a progressive thing. More towards the front imo the more likely crowd noise is of being a problem.Value Is EverythingYou won’t be proven incorrect Tatling. We have had almost a year of no crowds at Cheltenham and the data is crystal clear to see for those who wish to open their eyes that no crowd does not give any benefit to front runners.
Don’t tell Ginger though as he has never been wrong about anything in his life.
It’s “affected,” not “effected,” in this context.
Just saying.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Crowd noise is not the only reason more prominently ridden horses are winning, but imo it is a significant factor. Fewer runners another factor along with competitiveness.
Value Is Everything
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