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Boylesports closed mine. Paddy power let my funds go to a “third party” (yeah right) and never compensated
My luckiest account is coral which is a good multiple of initial stake but never a hint of closure. In fairness it’s hardly an earth shattering amount but enough
Hi again everyone, wow wasn’t expecting to come back to see so many replies and more healthy discussions, thanks again. I’ll try answer all questions posed to me.
Thanks for the lengthy post Blackcountry kid, I’ll see if I can pick up thoose books you mention. Sometimes I dare say the simplest advice is sometimes the best and working out which are the better horses in the race as always got to be at the front of your mind.
In response to Salut A Toi and clivexx, I think the need for me to diversify comes from wanting a new challenge. That and I feel like perhaps there’s even bigger edges available on horse racing given there’s a lot of it and a lot of different things to look at. Plus football and poker is mainly a weekend/night based pursuit. A lot of horse racing takes place in the afternoon and during the week which would be a more attractive time for me to work.
Hi GSP, I do make a full time living it’s a fairly even split of my time between football and playing poker currently. From what I know so far I can only echo what you say about going, I should think
being able to accurately identify what horses handle what surface can give you a huge advantage in this game.I like the angle of it’s you against the odds compiler, which is exactly what it is when it boils down to it. I think that’s where my strong inclination that you need to specialize in one particular area comes in. I feel like really zoning in and going through a small number of races very closely is the best way to go.
I’m honestly a little surprised that there isn’t more maths and data involved in the world of horse racing. Maybe there is out there that I just don’t know about? Data Analytics is really big in almost every major sport nowadays but watching the races on television and it feels like all the analysis is largely based around intuition and a sort of loosey goosey version of what is value.
clivexx I would wager that your discipline and patience to not have a bet is a major reason why you’ve been able to turn a profit. Sometimes the best bet is to not have a bet at all!
sportingsam I’ve verified the best I can with the answers above. I made no hiding of a passing interest in Horse Racing and knowing the basics but without ever really studying it at length. The whole Denman v Kauto Star debate was really hyped up around the time I started getting into gambling so I think a fondness for the sport hails back to then.
Richard88 it is a fact that most people who gamble lose. I don’t think anyone knows the exactly number but I’d guess maybe it’s only around 5% who manage to win and an even smaller who can say they earn significant sums. As far as I see it there’s only three things you need for success firstly an edge (positive expected value), secondly good bankroll management (to handle the variance) and three the correct mindset and discipline to put in the work to find the edges and stick to the staking plan.
Red Rum 77 interesting you say pay attention to what connections say and others say to disregard it! No doubt there’s got to be some golden nuggets of information in there and I daresay I’m currently a lot better at reading people than I am horses. I’ve never actually stepped foot in a race course (definitely something I need to do one day) although I don’t think it’s a prerequisite to being a successful punter on the horses, although it’s not going to do any harm for sure. Like you say knowing what to look out for in a horse in the parade ring and how this affects their chances of winning is another avenue to gaining an edge.
Gingertipster I kind of take it as a compliment when I get a bookmakers account restricted/closed because it shows I must be doing something right. In someway I feel it is highly unfair they can do that but I suppose they are only protecting their own business. Luckily there’s ways around that like exchanges.
An interesting post The Investor and thanks for taking the time to address individually all the questions you’ve been asked.
I take your point about diversifying but I’m not sure there is much of an edge on (UK at least) horse racing anymore. Everyone can see every race that is run, and replay it to their heart’s content. Timeform ratings are available virtually free of charge as is lifetime form for all runners including comments in running, trainer form etc etc. Every race is priced up at least the night before (trying getting on at those prices to more than buttons) and ricks on the exchanges don’t last long (and again are available to low stakes). Where’s your angle coming from if (nearly) everyone knows (nearly) everything.
You suggest crystalizing your knowledge and specialising which is a good idea but once you’ve done that there are fewer and fewer opportunities to exploit your edge and it becomes not worth the effort.
I can summarise the salient points of the Clive Holt book if you like = perhaps on a separate thread, although I don’t know that is within the forum rules.
Where’s your angle coming from if (nearly) everyone knows (nearly) everything.
Salut,
Yes, but even with all that information we don’t all back the same horse; far from it. An awful lot of “everything” is useless or not worthwhile information. Indeed, useless or not worthwhile info actually makes the punter back the wrong horses. Trick is obviously to find the useful information out from all the dross.The Investor says he makes his own books and this is important. Not the same as punters who solely try and find a particular edge / angle.
Once a punter is used to making his/her own 100% books the “angle” is simply just to back those the punter believes to be over-priced by the market. ie the angle / edge changes race by race and even horse by horse. Only takes one form aspect to be fractionally wrongly worked out by the market for a horse to be value / a good bet. Whether that aspect is to do with acting on the ground, racing action or staying the trip, speed / staying power; temperament, trainer form, pace in the race, track, breeding, jockeyship, recent form, past form, an improver (and at what rate improving) or on the decline etc etc. Also, the good information may well be known to most / all, but it’s how much that information affects the horse/s chance. ie How the info’ is evaluated into chance is just as (if not more) important than knowing the info’.
In a competitive market the bookies only have a small mark up (per racehorse) above what the market believes a fair price. eg Something the market thinks of as a fair 3/1 (25%) is offered @ 11/4 (26.7%). If I believe something has a 30% chance I would want 11/4 or more to back it. 30% is only 5% difference than what the market believes (25%). Anything thought by the bookies a fair 16/1 (5.9%%) is offered @ 14/1 (6.7%)… Anything I believe a 12/1 (fair 7.7% )chance I back @ 14/1 or more. Just a 1.8% difference between my idea of the fair odds 7.7% and the market’s 5.9%… Doesn’t take much difference in working out for something to be value / a good bet. And then there’s the exchanges where the whole race can have just a 1% mark up 101% (albeit allowance should be made for commission). Each individual horse having a mark up of a fraction of that 1%.
Therefore it should be possible to find a horse/s the 100% book punter believes to be over-priced in the vast majority of races. ie Even if a punter is working races out by using the same criteria as the bookie / market, there will be one or more form aspects that will be worked out differently enough to find value in one or more horses. Albeit for the novice 100% book compiler I’d recommend using a larger margin for error than my own (that I quote from above).
Value Is EverythingI agree with salut to a large extent but I would say one thing Investor..
You are going to have to specialize within a specialization. No punter can cover all uk horse racing at all levels.
Northern flat racing and general low grade flat racing are a total no no for me as are the dreaded sprints. I can look at a card at ripon and not recognize half the trainers let alone the horses
And going racing certainly has an edge. Not because of “whispers” but the concentration from being fully absorbed.
Data has been done to death. There are too many factors involved. It’s a bit like lending decisions in my industry (business asset finance) which are never made purely on data in fact lenders who have depended heavily on algorithms (fi techs largely ) have been coming a cropper left right and centre
Red rum is completely right to highlight trainers comments
You get the usual “all trainers are at it and I know better of course” as if a weirdo in front of his laptop sitting in his week old y fronts has a better idea of the gallops and the nature of the horse than the actual person managing it day to day
Most trainers at the senior level can’t be bothered with games with the public and tell it as it is. Many will say nothing but it’s absurd not to note a comment from a gosden or a Nichols.
Now we will have the usual “ah yes! But remember blah blah blah” oh just **** off now
Knowing trainers patterns and ways of communication is a major factor in selections I believe but you are going to struggle to get a grasp on that in even the medium term
Gingertipster – I fully understand your methodology and how you use it to make consistent profits for which you have my full respect and indeed admiration.
I think, however, that you are in a very small minority of punters that has a) the particular personality traits required for this approach b) the opportunity to deploy it. For the avoidance of doubt that is not intended to be a criticism, quite the opposite.
To expand on a point I made earlier in the thread with regard to “all” of us being able to find plenty of winners but that not being enough, I am reasonably adept (as I suspect many are) at analysing a race and putting into approximate order the runners’ chances but not so good at accurately being able to say well Horse A clearly has the best chance but is it a 6/4 chance or a 7/4 chance. That is the difference between winning and losing and is not IMO a skill that is easily learnt – as clivexxx and you both noted previously, there is no “right” answer – you have to have an almost intuitive feel for it.
The OP clearly knows plenty about betting in general and has some idea about horse racing and you commend him for pricing up his example race but as has been pointed out he totally under-rated the “rag” as many of us would.
From his starting point how long would you expect it to take him to have your level of skill and how much would you expect him to lose before he’s good enough to start getting in front and at what point might he say “this is too much like hard work I’m not sure I can be good at this” and jack it in.
Realise you know my methodology etc, Salut.
Just pointing out that for punters making our own 100% books (which was the way the OP mentioned he was going too at the start of this thread) edges or angles are less important. Could say the 100% book is our edge / angle; because even if working out races the same way an odds compiler does, we will come up with over-priced horses.Yes, it does take a certain type of mentality in order to profit, but (at least from what he’s written on this thread) I do believe The Investor has a chance of succeeding at it. The OP said:
“One thing I didn’t realise is how time intensive it can be to price up a race, it was taking me a good couple of hours to get through a 4 runner race for example. Watching back all the previous races, analysing the form, looking at the times, etc. So any tips on reducing the time spent would be helpful as well”.
…So the Investor is willing to put in quite a lot of work studying the form book and/or watching races. He’s also supposedly a successful poker player and therefore knows the importance of and is used to using the mathematics of betting which is a help. Probably at a better “starting point” than most people searching for horse racing profit.
Before starting to bet I’d advise The Investor to:
A) Buy Timeform Race Passes and just read. Paying particular attention to what makes the difference.
B) Watch the races, analyse them yourself and then see how it compares to the Timeform analysts. Having differences sometimes will be good, but Timeform are experts and you’ll need to be on a similar wavelength for most horses.
C) Look at Timeform analysis of races and compare that with both Early Odds betting and Betfair SP (how the betting ends up).
D) Start betting. Using both your own analysis and Timeform’s to make your own 100% books.
E) Keep a note of every 100% book and every bet.
A good form book is imo essential for any punter thinking about making their own 100% books. I’d find it impossible without Timeform.
If – even with a good form book – you’re still struggling to know what makes a horse a fair 6/4 or 7/4 shot: Try grouping horses together and/or doubling another horse’s chance. Thinking that horse A + horse E = 50% (same chance as all the others combined) makes it easier coming to a decision on horse A alone. Or thinking whether horse A really has double or just under double or just over double the chance of horse C.
After putting horses in order of chance I usually start with what I consider the favourites but if that’s tricky I sometimes do the outsiders first. Considering whether the next horse up has a chance half as good again or double or two and a quarter times etc.
Don’t expect to come to a definite decision on a horse’s chance straight away either. I go through the whole race trying to get each horse right in conjunction with every other horse… Then add the percentages up and if not 100% go through the percentages again and again until it is 100% and just as importantly does look right. Can change a horse’s percentage chance 10 times before am happy with it.
Don’t give up easily. Took me many months to get things passable and years before having it what I believed spot on. However, for someone like the OP it’ll probably be quite a bit shorter time span than that.
Value Is EverythingInteresting conversation.
Yes it is you vs the odds compiler in the bookmaker. But the idea that it is as simple as that is very naive.
The bookmaker has an entre risk department. He has contacts in yards and at the races that you are very unlikely to have. The bookmaker has hundreds of ‘marks’ that you don’t have. He sees when someone connected with ‘trainer x’ has a sneaky tenner ew on one of x’s long shots at 9am. You don’t.
More importantly nowadays, both you and the bookmaker have the exchanges, which have a habit of accurately forecasting the likelihood of anything specific happening if there’s enough liquidity in the market.
And MOST importantly, if the bookmaker doesn’t like you, he’ll just close your account. It’s not really a fair contest.
IMHO if you want a new challenge I would look somewhere other than horse racing. It is probably the most picked over sport there is from a betting perspective. I do know people who make good money betting, but I don’t know anyone who makes good money betting on horses.
Of course bookmakers have “marks”, biskybat; I was one of them for a while; anything backed was immediately (within a minute, sometimes seconds) shortened. Not that I had any inside information from yards. As an early odds backer – either late evening or early morning – they used me as a way of tipping them off which horses they’d over-priced. ie So they could shorten horses up before other (bigger bettor) good judges got on. When becoming a bigger bettor myself those / my accounts were either closed or severely restricted. Is indeed highly frustrating not being able to get on.
There are of course also “marks” with inside info’ from yards, but punters without inside info can limit the affect that info has by not “specialising” / betting in races particularly prone to it (eg ignoring maidens and/or lower grade handicaps).
The way exchanges influence the market is in one way over-stated. imo Early markets tend to follow bookmaker odds just as much if not more than the other way around. It is the later market that seems more exchange influenced.
True, exchanges do “have a habit of accurately forecasting the likelihood of anything specific happening if there’s enough liquidity in the market”. However, that accurate forecasting happens only late on. Yes, liquidity isn’t quite what it is in the last moments; but slightly less liquidity is a small price to pay.
Value Is Everything“ Hi GSP, I do make a full time living it’s a fairly even split of my time between football and playing poker currently. From what I know so far I can only echo what you say about going, I should think
being able to accurately identify what horses handle what surface can give you a huge advantage in this game”.Thanks The Investor.
Just interested to know if you had 10 bets in a row that did not come off, or 20, would that wipe you out?
While thousands thinking they can make an income out of gambling and failing, perhaps up to now you have been fortunate not to have a bad run, past borrowed time for this?
There really is no guarantee you will back a winner and a long losing sequence would spell doom.
Sorry, I’m just sceptical people can keep going without drawing on funds from elsewhere to bail them out.I’ve got to say rather bluntly that “identifying horses handle which surface” is hardly an under the radar factor and without being a little bit rude, surely with some experience in the game, that would be known?
Not offence investor but are you going into a sport where you arE a long way behind the curve in terms of knowledge? And should you?
Gsp is also right. All very well making a margin with disposable income but a markedly different and mind bending pressure if dependent on income. I remember Dave Nevison recounting the pure stress of a less than break even year after two good years betting. Break even means a year of work for absolutely **** all and with bills to pay
Although I’d agree there are many horses / races where going / surface preferences are well known, Clive; they’re often wrongly identified. eg Horses win races without being anywhere near their best – without necessarily acting on the ground. Sometimes a win without being at its best is natural progression (it’s just a better racehorse now). Sometimes it is because the horse has since improved on (better suited by) a different surface. Sometimes there is another valid excuse for when a horse disappointed on the ground. Many punters look wrongly at whether a horse has won on the surface in the past. This misses the fact many horses run to form when 2nd, 3rd or (even in a big race) 6th. ie When assessing going preferences the important thing is if the horse ran to form on the surface, not whether it won the race…
Also, horses can improve on a different / new surface and that can sometimes be predicted by looking at siblings / parents going biases and even more importantly the horse itself’s action. eg Pounding round actioned racehorse will probably improve on soft ground, where as a pointed action usually favours a firm surface. A good form book often says what type of action a horse has, or the on-course punter may get an advantage by watching horses go to post.
Then there’s the fact it’s not unusual for the official going report to be just plain wrong. So… is the official result right that the horse acts on soft? Race times can sometimes indicate the going is different to the official going. Timeform do their own going descriptions paying particular attention to race times, importantly taking both wind speed and direction into account. Tail winds speeding times up while headwinds slow them down.
Also, it is often a matter of speed or stamina rather than whether it acts on a particular surface. A horse may have run very well at 7f on firm ground, but will it have enough speed for 6f on firm? Or a horse may have put up its best ever performance on soft ground at a mile, but what are the chances of it staying 10 furlongs on soft?
…And for the 100% book punter – Sometimes it may look as though a horse doesn’t act on the ground but the market has over-reacted. ie It probably won’t act on the ground but the available odds make it worth taking the chance.
So a successful gambler can very often find an advantage / edge over punters by using going preferences.
Value Is EverythingYes thats all true enough and one reference point one often wished to see is breeding/going preferences. Pivotals everyone knows about but others? maybe its just too vague?
Trouble is that all those factors you mentioned cannot be drilled down to one system and its going to surely take someone with a fair bit of experience of race watching to even have a chance of spotting the ricks
Its not an angle to start from is it?
That’s exactly why I said this, Clive; before doing anything else:
Before starting to bet I’d advise The Investor to:
A) Buy Timeform Race Passes and just read. Paying particular attention to what makes the difference.
By doing so I believe it can significantly reduce the experience needed. Indeed, it may even help not having years of experience, because then the punter does not start using Timeform with their own preconceived ideas on the subject.
Value Is Everything
Just pointing out that for punters making our own 100% books (which was the way the OP mentioned he was going too at the start of this thread) edges or angles are less important. Could say the 100% book is our edge / angle; because even if working out races the same way an odds compiler does, we will come up with over-priced horses.
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