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I guess my Saturday question is asking the simple question of whether racing, in the long term, is a game of skill or luck?<br>Should it be put in the same catagory as poker and bingo ie. one should consider themselves fortunate to make a long term profit?
The skill comes in being able to assess the winning chances of individual horses more accurately than the ‘market’ and to be able to do so over a reasonably large sample.<br>If you can do that you’ve cracked it, in simple terms.
Skill or luck? <br>Short term much can be down to luck. I could be the best punter in the world but still lose today.<br>Over a longer term results will clearly refelect your ability.
But better to be lucky than good.
Long-term, it’s much more a matter of skill or reliable sources.
If you don’t take it seriously and make money it’s more likely luck.
Do I expect to make money or just hope? I find it depends on the racing. Some days I just know I’m going to have a field day. Most days, I’m punting because my figures tell me I’ve found value and I need to take the long-term view but hope today will give me a winner.
Luck is definitely the deciding factor. That’s why if ever you see my at the races, I’ll be the lad kissing the shamrock and stroking a rabbit’s foot rather than stood with my head in the formbook.
Its not about luck. Betting should only be evaluated as a long-term exercise.
The betting markets have overrounds plus there is commission if you use the exchanges. That means the odds as a whole are not in your favour. Statistically, it would be practically impossible to rely on luck to make money.
This is a game of skill. Let there be no doubt.
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Robinfromireland
There is no doubt about it – otherwise this forum would be all about rabbit’s feet!:biggrin:
Hi gang
I would sum it up like this…………
"Anyone can be lucky, but you cannot rely on luck.<br>Not everyone can be skillful, but you can rely on skill."
The key elements for success are, preparation, analysis and interpretation.  This requires an enormous physical and psychological effort.
If your priorities lay elsewhere then treat it as a bit of fun, trust to luck and don’t expect to win.
byefrom<br>carlisle
ps beware of your primitive mind, though.
(Edited by carlisle at 8:27 am on June 17, 2007)
Quote: from RobinFromIreland on 9:15 pm on June 16, 2007[br]Its not about luck. Betting should only be evaluated as a long-term exercise.
The betting markets have overrounds plus there is commission if you use the exchanges. That means the odds as a whole are not in your favour. Statistically, it would be practically impossible to rely on luck to make money.
This is a game of skill. Let there be no doubt.<br>
But luck does play a part. Would you classify backers of Devon Loch as unskilled?
Hi Maurice
when is a loser a good bet, and a winner a bad bet?
byefrom<br>carlisle
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- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from carlisle on 8:33 am on June 17, 2007[br]Hi Maurice
when is a loser a good bet, and a winner a bad bet?
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>
Usually when ridden by R Hughes or Jamie Spencer.;)
Luck does play a part in the short-term, but in the long-term, its effect is negligible.
If you think you are any good, you should expect short-term setbacks on the road to that long-term pot of gold…
😉
Aside from skill and luck, I would also add discipline (the ability to stick to races you have confidence in, even if it means only 2 bets a week) and information (the ability to filter the good info from the bad).
- Total Posts 36
Who think you can earn some money regularly without being a punter at full time?
You must become a pro punter if you want to earn your life in this way.
Quote: from carlisle on 8:33 am on June 17, 2007[br]Hi Maurice
when is a loser a good bet, and a winner a bad bet?
byefrom<br>carlisle
A loser is a good bet when everything you’ve done tells you you’re getting better odds than its true chances.
A bad winning bet is when you’ve taken under the odds.
It isn’t rocket science.
If I offered you 4/6 your call heads or tails on the toss of a coin and you took it, I’d think you were either off your head, a mug punter or a gambling addict. So what if you win? It was a bad bet.
If I offered you £50 to cross a raging stream and your options were to walk 100 yards down the road to a bridge or use stepping stones that were covered in slippery moss and you chose the latter, I’d reckon you were a nutter, even if you made it across. It wasn’t a clever thing to do.
Quote: from dancarter on 10:44 am on June 17, 2007[br]   You must become a pro punter if you want to earn your life in this way.<br>
Yes, very few of us could actually make a living out of punting because you need to consider the implications:
What would constitute enough money on which to live?
How do you plan to survive the inevitable long losing run?
Let’s say you’re content to ‘live’ on £20,000 per year. This seems a modest amount but since gambling isn’t recognised as earnings it isn’t taxed and you won’t be paying other ‘deductions’ directly to the state, so your £20k is more equivalent to £30k earned. On top of that, you’d be elegible for social security benefits as you are technically unemployed. So let’s say £20k is reasonable.
Most pro gamblers aim for a single-figure percentage profit in the long term but with the abolition of betting duty a few years ago they’re probably looking at about 10%, maybe more, but let’s keep the the 10% as a nice round figure.
To make £20kpa, you’d need to be punting, on average, £200,000 each year. That’s £16,600 a month, or £4,400 per week, £630 per day. Over £100 per race if you can limit yourself to 6 bets a day; £200 per race if you have the discipline to restrict yourself to three.
And that’s before your expenses:
Racing Post
Form Book / Raceform Interactive / Timeform / Superform, or whatever. (You’re not seriously going to embark on this without expert support, are you?)
Satellite TV and subscriptions to racing channels. (If you’re serious, you’re going to need to see as many races as you possibly can.)
Suppose you start by experiencing the long losing run, say 25 races without a win, which is entirely possible. At one bet per day, £630 per bet, you’re £15,750 plus expenses down after nearly a month and you still have to claw it back before you start to make a profit.
Can you handle that kind of pressure?
bookies make money and ever increasing profits because statistically more than 9 out of 10 punters always lose, overall – therefore with such a base statistic as that and such a short, precise but potentially wide open question the only short answer you can give in kind is …
… no
as for the should it be put in the same boat as poker and bingo, the point here is surely that bingo and poker are not in the same boat – bingo is purely luck, i don’t care what anyone says fat old ladies stabbing paper with magic markers is not skill.
poker is a skill game with a luck element and i think racing falls in between the two
successful racing betting without inside or ‘privy’ info is an art but without the ‘privy’ info you could still make the right decision, taking into account the human, animal, in-running, conditions, etc luck but be undone by the simple fact the horse is not there to win that day, it is being prepared for another day, to put it politely – in other words it will not win that race regardless, as the trainer and jockey know, whereas you do not know that
the luck element of poker does not include a rigged deck – there is always a chance the unlikely card can fall even if you are on a one outer – the dealer will not hold the card back, only statistics will
according to my vast studies over the years, the less than 1 out of 10 successful horse racing punters alive, i have all met, either in the pub, bookies across the road or on racing forums
it’s a small world 🙂
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