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When you bet, should you expect to win …

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  • #2017
    ScribblesScribbles
    Member
    • Total Posts 149

    I guess my Saturday question is asking the simple question of whether racing, in the long term, is a game of skill or luck?<br>Should it be put in the same catagory as poker and bingo ie. one should consider themselves fortunate to make a long term profit?

    #65025
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    The skill comes in being able to assess the winning chances of individual horses more accurately than the ‘market’ and to be able to do so over a reasonably large sample.<br>If you can do that you’ve cracked it, in simple terms.

    Skill or luck? <br>Short term much can be down to luck. I could be the best punter in the world but still lose today.<br>Over a longer term results will clearly refelect your ability.

    #65027
    Maurice
    Participant
    • Total Posts 355

    But better to be lucky than good.

    Long-term, it’s much more a matter of skill or reliable sources.

    If you don’t take it seriously and make money it’s more likely luck.

    Do I expect to make money or just hope? I find it depends on the racing. Some days I just know I’m going to have a field day. Most days, I’m punting because my figures tell me I’ve found value and I need to take the long-term view but hope today will give me a winner.

    #65028
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Luck is definitely the deciding factor. That’s why if ever you see my at the races, I’ll be the lad kissing the shamrock and stroking a rabbit’s foot rather than stood with my head in the formbook.

    #65029
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Will you be kissing and stroking at the same time DJ?:biggrin:

    #65030
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Its not about luck. Betting should only be evaluated as a long-term exercise.

    The betting markets have overrounds plus there is commission if you use the exchanges. That means the odds as a whole are not in your favour. Statistically, it would be practically impossible to rely on luck to make money.

    This is a game of skill. Let there be no doubt.

    #65031
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Robinfromireland

    There is no doubt about it – otherwise this forum would be all about rabbit’s feet!:biggrin:

    #65032
    carlislecarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi gang

    I would sum it up like this…………

    "Anyone can be lucky, but you cannot rely on luck.<br>Not everyone can be skillful, but you can rely on skill."

    The key elements for success are, preparation, analysis and interpretation.  This requires an enormous physical and psychological effort.

    If your priorities lay elsewhere then treat it as a bit of fun, trust to luck and don’t expect to win.

    byefrom<br>carlisle

    ps beware of your primitive mind, though.

    (Edited by carlisle at 8:27 am on June 17, 2007)

    #65033
    Maurice
    Participant
    • Total Posts 355

    Quote: from RobinFromIreland on 9:15 pm on June 16, 2007[br]Its not about luck. Betting should only be evaluated as a long-term exercise.

    The betting markets have overrounds plus there is commission if you use the exchanges. That means the odds as a whole are not in your favour. Statistically, it would be practically impossible to rely on luck to make money.

    This is a game of skill. Let there be no doubt.<br>

    But luck does play a part. Would you classify backers of Devon Loch as unskilled?

    #65034
    carlislecarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi Maurice

    when is a loser a good bet, and a winner a bad bet?

    byefrom<br>carlisle

    <br>

    #65035
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from carlisle on 8:33 am on June 17, 2007[br]Hi Maurice

    when is a loser a good bet, and a winner a bad bet?

    byefrom<br>carlisle

    <br>

    Usually when ridden by R Hughes or Jamie Spencer.;)

    #65036
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    Luck does play a part in the short-term, but in the long-term, its effect is negligible.

    If you think you are any good, you should expect short-term setbacks on the road to that long-term pot of gold…

    ;)

    #65037
    naps
    Member
    • Total Posts 159

    Aside from skill and luck, I would also add discipline (the ability to stick to races you have confidence in, even if it means only 2 bets a week) and information (the ability to filter the good info from the bad).

    #65038
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 36

          Who think you can earn some money regularly without being a punter at full time?

      You must become a pro punter if you want to earn your life in this way.

    #65039
    Maurice
    Participant
    • Total Posts 355

    Quote: from carlisle on 8:33 am on June 17, 2007[br]Hi Maurice

    when is a loser a good bet, and a winner a bad bet?

    byefrom<br>carlisle

    A loser is a good bet when everything you’ve done tells you you’re getting better odds than its true chances.

    A bad winning bet is when you’ve taken under the odds.

    It isn’t rocket science.

    If I offered you 4/6 your call heads or tails on the toss of a coin and you took it, I’d think you were either off your head, a mug punter or a gambling addict. So what if you win? It was a bad bet.

    If I offered you £50 to cross a raging stream and your options were to walk 100 yards down the road to a bridge or use stepping stones that were covered in slippery moss and you chose the latter, I’d reckon you were a nutter, even if you made it across. It wasn’t a clever thing to do.

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