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Luch plays a massive part in gambling IMO .. chi-test is a good test for luck.
I reckon we are all glorified pin stickers in one way or another. If you have got it right it shouldn’t really matter if you win or lose, so long as you are getting good value for your entertainment pound. You also shouldn’t be betting to stakes that you can’t comfortably afford to lose.
In answer to the first question, yes you should expect to win but not in an ar$e clenching way .. !<br>:cool:
Just a point Maurice, you wouldn’t qualify for income support as you wouild not be actively seeking ’employment’.’
correct mr. davidjohnson, anyone who tries that is morally bankrupt to start with imo and should therefore be told to kneel down and have a .22 round fired in the back of their head – claiming sickness and doing this is the same crime imo – no wonder the moral backbone and fibre of this country is as weak as it is ….
Quote: from davidjohnson on 5:05 pm on June 17, 2007[br]Just a point Maurice, you wouldn’t qualify for income support as you wouild not be actively seeking ’employment’.'<br>
Thanks, DJ, I didn’t know that. It’s 27 years since I was on unemployment benefit.
Let me use an example to clarify my point.
Joe Bloggs trawls through the formbook, seven days a week, and earns £2000 a year on average. He has had a couple of losing years but does OK overall. He considers himself a pro-punter and puts his long term success down to pure skill. He one day hopes to increase his winnings to equal a viable wage.
Bob Soap, on the other hand, spends just as much time studying the formbook and does pretty much the same as Joe. His Betfair account is currently in the neg to the amount of £4000. He just cannot figure out why he is losing as he is doing all the right things. He never seems to win. He considers himself "just one of those unlucky guys".
Edna Bucket puts on her £1 scoop 6 bet every week religously. She places 50p e/w on every Grand National and Derby. She has no clue what the Cheltenham Gold Cup is, merely that it is run at Cheltenham. One week, her scoop 6 bet comes up and she wins £112,782.51 for her £1 bet. Her bonus bet also wins the following week at 11/1. She picked it because she liked the name and the jockey had nice colours. She picks up another £42,765.19. She continues to do her scoop 6 bet every week, but never aspires to be that lucky again. Her £150k win is enough to retire on, and by far outweighs her lifetime losses on the horses, which is probably no more than £1000 in all.
Did luck or skill win the day in these examples? <br>Joe did it systematically and barely earns enough for his annual holiday in Malaga for his sweat and tears. Bob is on the verge of giving up the game as he simply cannot make it pay. Edna doesn’t really care, as it is just a bit of fun to her. I think luck has a part to play and skill can pay rewards also. The luck path to gambling is probably the most satisfying IMO.
ps. i’m sure that my Lucky 15 will come up one week, you just wait and see :biggrin:
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Quote: from Maurice on 12:17 pm on June 17, 2007<br>Yes, very few of us could actually make a living out of punting because you need to consider the implications:
What would constitute enough money on which to live?
How do you plan to survive the inevitable long losing run?
Let’s say you’re content to ‘live’ on £20,000 per year. This seems a modest amount but since gambling isn’t recognised as earnings it isn’t taxed and you won’t be paying other ‘deductions’ directly to the state, so your £20k is more equivalent to £30k earned. On top of that, you’d be elegible for social security benefits as you are technically unemployed. So let’s say £20k is reasonable.
Most pro gamblers aim for a single-figure percentage profit in the long term but with the abolition of betting duty a few years ago they’re probably looking at about 10%, maybe more, but let’s keep the the 10% as a nice round figure.
To make £20kpa, you’d need to be punting, on average, £200,000 each year. That’s £16,600 a month, or £4,400 per week, £630 per day. Over £100 per race if you can limit yourself to 6 bets a day; £200 per race if you have the discipline to restrict yourself to three.
And that’s before your expenses:
Racing Post
Form Book / Raceform Interactive / Timeform / Superform, or whatever. (You’re not seriously going to embark on this without expert support, are you?)
Satellite TV and subscriptions to racing channels. (If you’re serious, you’re going to need to see as many races as you possibly can.)
Suppose you start by experiencing the long losing run, say 25 races without a win, which is entirely possible. At one bet per day, £630 per bet, you’re £15,750 plus expenses down after nearly a month and you still have to claw it back before you start to make a profit.
Can you handle that kind of pressure?<br>
Or maybe just one 30k bet a year, on a 4/6 shot at one of the major meetings? <br>An extreme example maybe, but there are many ways to skin a rabbbit.
<br>Or maybe just one 30k bet a year, on a 4/6 shot at one of the major meetings? <br>
I was thinking the same!
Surely a pro-punter would be more selective in his wagering than betting a £100 on each of six races every day, 363 days a year?
Hi Maurice
I like your detailed and reasonable outline of a pro-backers activities.  However I have a slightly different take on things.
(A survival budget must be in place, by fair or foul means.)
Before Bud Player turns pro he would need to have tested and developed a winning method. In a nutshell this would weigh calculated risk against reward.  If his results proved that he had an edge he should go for it.
I don’t buy all this two losing years, and I think he would be unlucky to have huge losing runs.  As long as he didn’t rely on big odds winners that offered him a low strike rate his system will be fine.
As for his number of bets and the stake levels this would be dictated by his analysis and race interpretation.  I would suggest starting with a 1k bank spliting it into £20 one point units, then proceeding to bet at the rate of one point equals 2% of the bank.  This will engender a success built upon success mentality.
Staying disciplined and focused is another matter.
If the bank disappears then so should he, wiser for the experience.  His method was sheight and so was his belief in it.
byefrom<br>carlisle
ps losing punters are Lemons, winning backers are top Bananas.
"Hey! just by looking at that pro backer, I wouldn’t know if he had won or lost."
<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 2:27 pm on June 18, 2007)
Scribbles,
There are scores of hopeful punters like Joe Bloggs and Bob Soap, and tens of thousands of Edna Buckets. Statistically, it is the Ednas of the punting world that will carry off the jackpots that are not hoovered up by syndicates. You might call this luck, but really it is just sheer weight of probability that favours the pin stickers and guessers – there are simply a lot more of them.
Maurice’s analysis is quite sound. The large turnover required to generate a living wage is way beyond the comfort zone of most people. As for risking everything on one race, I don’t think many people would have the bottle to do that bearing in mind that anything can happen in a race.
Simon
You must live near to me. I’ve met all the same characters around the nearby betting shops and pubs: even in the streets telling anyone who will listen.
I think Dave has it about right. You should not expect to win unless you are a pro punter. You would have to work very hard indeed to accomplish that and perhaps you could get an easier and more certain income doing something else. The rest of us must pay for our enjoyment and entertainment, always obeying the golden rule of betting:
Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Remember, racing is really a triviallity in the real world.<br>We need our triviallities, but not that badly.
Hi Scribbles
if you think luck is more important than skill, then effectively you are saying "I am worthless….".
To me that flies in the face of human ingenuity.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
carlisle,
I’m not ready to give up my badge just yet.
Travelling hopefully is what punting is about for most of us. I’m not defeatist or negative about it. I’ve enjoyed every yard of the long journey.
Where do we arrive, and what do we know when we get there? I don’t really know. I’m still learning.
I think you can say that about life in general, but that’s going too deep for this thread.
"The rest of us must pay for our enjoyment and entertainment, always obeying the golden rule of betting:
Never bet more than you can afford to lose. "
I think that at some stage (not necessarily for too long) you do have to bet sums that are more than you can afford to (are able to) lose. If you don’t put your self fully to the test and get rid once and for all of bad habits that dribble away profits you might never make the leap into profitable betting.<br>
robert,
I think that if you are really serious about betting for profit you have to separate an affordable bank from the rest of your money.
This might be a considerable sum equivalent to an investment you might make in a limited liabilty business venture. If you lose it all, it’s a setback, but you only lose the initial capital.
To risk any more is foolhardy and betrays an impulsive personality prepared to challenge fate without any thought for others(family, friends, employees). In times of great danger(eg war), such a person might be useful, but in normal life, we can do without chancers prepared to risk other people’s fortunes.
Hi robert_69
if a punter cannot win with fivers he will not win with five grands.  One must draw a line in the sand,…… are you an investor or a gambler?
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
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