- This topic has 35 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
I’m throwing my first speculative Handicap dart (apart from Ted Veale) today :
Holywell 16/1EW Bet 365
Looks to be having the classic Jonjo preparation, running through the low grade Novices short of his best trip, with less than convincing performances. Today he goes at Donny in another Novice that he stands a very good chance of winning without pushing him too high in the handicap.
Previous festival winner over 3miles, looks the ideal type for this race.
Wichita Lineman, Alfie Sherrin were two recent winners for Jonjo and Merry King was well backed last year without showing.I wouldn’t be too quick to rush in there Shack.
The top weight in this will be rated somewhere around the mid 150s and this is a serious trend race for horses carrying less than 11st – with only 4 winners carrying more in the last 30 years+ and only Unguided Missile (11-10) carrying more than 11-07.
The Holywell is rated 157 over hurdles and nobody knows what the handicapper will give him after today’s event but even if he decides to be lenient, it is still quite likely that he’ll have him in the high 140s (probably higher if he were to win today) and that would in all probability push him over the 11-07 threshold for the festival handicap.
Given that he’s also a novice (which has shown thus far in his jumping) and is on the small side so not entirely suited to lumping a big weight, then he’d have a mountain to climb IMO.
If on the other hand the handicapper decided to turn a complete blind eye to his hurdle form and let him in around 135 then I’d be in the queue to back him. But we shall find out next Wednesday when his OR is published so until then I’ll wait.
He also has numerous entries at Cheltenham which I’m sure you’re aware of, so Jonjo is plainly waiting to see himself – hence the likely reason for running him today.
Lee
Hmm, fair comments.
However, my thinking was the level of his chase form has been distinctly average and no way the h/capper could rate him near 150 on the evidence so far. Also, given his level so far it would be a stretch for him to be good enough for the novice races given the opposition and a fast paced 3 miles is his optimum trip.
In the hands of the handicapper I think!
I wouldnt be surprised if he’s involved in a close finish today, no better then!You should keep a close eye on the BHA site next Wednesday morning when the ratings are updated and hope to beat the crowds should he a) run respectively today and b) be treated with leniency.
We should even have a couple of NRNB bookies by then (365 & BV ?) to negate the multiple entries but they’re bound to be factoring the concession into the price.
Lee
Would you adam and eve it, a 3/4L victory from 132 rated Victor Hewgo with 127 rated Firm Order 3L in third
.Bet365 now go 12s, conversely BetVic are now 14 from 10 which with a NRFB concession is tempting.
Haven’t seen the race yet but pushing him out from 10s to 14s NRFB is a crazy decision from BV. They’re mugs if they think the horse would have been 100% today.
On a strict line of form that should reward him with a rating around 135, which would see him running off around 10-7 if the race takes it’s usual shape, and ignoring his potentially novicey jumping could make him very tempting.
Whether the handicapper will see it so cut and dried is an entirely different matter but one thing that is certain is IF he does, then come the middle of next week there’ll be a stampede to back a 157 rated, Jonjo trained pertemps hurdle winner off a chase mark a stone and half lower.
He’ll go for a different race if the handicapper reacts too harshly so now you can get 14s NRFB it’s worth a bet.
I watched the race back and he jumped slowish without blundering and McCoy appeared to be working fairly hard to get him on top up the straight, however he pulled away after the last and McCoy was definately looking busy for the cameras without actually fully riding him out (IMO of course!).
Plenty left in the locker, lets hope the handicapper interprets the form for what it was.Horse has jumped poorly with McCoy up all season. What makes you think he will jump any better over stiffer fences and in a far more competitive race? Horse did me a huge favour last season but he travelled really sweetly for McLernon. Hasn’t travelled like the same horse with McCoy on board and I don’t think that has anything to do with getting a nice handicap mark.
Horse has jumped poorly with McCoy up all season. What makes you think he will jump any better over stiffer fences and in a far more competitive race? Horse did me a huge favour last season but he travelled really sweetly for McLernon. Hasn’t travelled like the same horse with McCoy on board and I don’t think that has anything to do with getting a nice handicap mark.
What makes you think McCoy will be on board at Cheltenham if he goes in this? Sure JP will have a couple for this.
Holywell gets given a chase OR of 145.
The handicapper has basically rated him somewhere around halfway between his best hurdles form and his limited chase form.
For a horse that doesn’t jump that well and has limited size I’d be inclined to swerve on the basis that he will probably have a shade over 11st to carry (for a novice) and that is a big negative for this race.
Lee
I’ve got to get the winner of this race; it’s my lucky race [apart from when Wichita Linesman collared me on the line
]. Was only thinking last night that, if I don’t get the winner this year it’ll ruin my week. Last year I had Golden Chieftain and my best racing day ever was when I was there to cheer my beloved Chief Dan George home. I’m looking at the Bog Warrior this year if he actually runs.How can Holywell be running off 10st 13lb and Hadrian’s Approach off 11st ?
The latter is undeniably well in and is being backed accordingly so I’ve just availed myself of some of the 14s still available.
Lee
- Total Posts 764
When do we find out who’s running in which handicaps for the festival? Hard to do research when there’s 80 horses listed!!
24 hours before (10:00 AM) so in most cases probably not until then I’m afraid.
Six day decs begin tomorrow but the majority will be left in their multiple engagements. NRNB removes the danger from the betting side but agreed, from a studying perspective it’s a right pain in the arse.
Trainers stating their preferences helps but tough to gather all the info from all the stables.
Lee
- Total Posts 764
Thanks Lee, bit annoying!
Backed Midnight Prayer so far in this. Not a priority antepost race for me because there’s often good value on the day and there’s a strong weights trend which can be difficult to calculate two weeks prior to the race.
.
]. Was only thinking last night that, if I don’t get the winner this year it’ll ruin my week. Last year I had Golden Chieftain and my best racing day ever was when I was there to cheer my beloved Chief Dan George home. I’m looking at the Bog Warrior this year if he actually runs.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.