- This topic has 35 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 764
Renard and Goulanes in this for me, going to wait to see if this is actually their destination and the weather/jockeys first though
Drying ground is going to make the soft ground horses run earlier in the week perhaps?
Had a sneaky punch on Twirling Magnet in this. Fits a fair few trends and looked accustomed to Good groung Cheltenham two runs back, looks like they are waiting for a spring race. Lapped up 40-1 and 33-1 early in the week. Been cut largely to 20-1 which is encouraging. Jonjo factor is key too. Just hope he goes for this rather than the 11-9 lump in the kim muir. fingers crossed.
Also hit up a spot of 80-1 on renard, low in the handicap so might not make it but 80-1 was too big to not tickle away.
Jonjo " unhappy with the mark, might run him in the Kim Muir and his target is the Grand National "
I reckon he’s a stone well in and 25-1 is lovely.
Thanks Mark. Luckily it is all nrnb on that one. Shame as the price suits. Hoping they have a stab nonetheless but kim muir is probably an easier target. I might get on wherever he goes.
Rather encouraging for me is he is 56-1 on betfair for the kim muir. Optimistic he’ll go here.
Thing is he has only 11 chases to his name and his mark is only going to rise. This is a serious chance on his mark to nail a big handicap. Go here please Jonjo old chap.
When do they have to declare a horse running in blinkers for the first time; after what happened last year I’m going to keep an eye on this. Horses wearing blinkers for the first time do well in this race.
Time for Rupert should have an each way squeak. Been given a chance by the handicapper and goes well for o regan. If he gets into a good rhythm 25/1 to big!
Other one I like is cause of causes but has multiple entries!
Martin
Can’t wait to see which horses are still in it tomorrow! I assume they can still be withdrawn though??
A couple indicators for this race…
The last 13 winners were in the handicap range 129 – 143 and had won a race already the same season.
Also, none of the last 12 winners carried more than 11-2.
There are three that currently take my eye and follow these trends;
Vintage Star
Cause of Causes
Indian CastleThe last 2 will not run if all 50 currently declared stand their ground, but if they do line up then I’m going to have problems choosing one.
Good luck all.
Well, Holywell is in to get me a run, but I dont really fancy him too much now with 11-6. Traditionally a sub 11st weight is carried, so two I like are :
King Massini – 33s EW – rapid improver for Evan Williams and won here in December, put away since bolting up at Ludlow.
Wrong Turn – 20s EW – Tony Martin improver. Say no more.
I’ve got this race down to Cantlow, Holywell, Ma Filleule, Alfie Sherrin, Fruity O’Rooney and Tour Des Champs.
Cantlow
was staying on manfully in the Stewart Family Gold Cup, suggesting that a return to this distance will help. G T Fox is a good claimer who has proved himself in some big handicaps, but this horse does need a bit of ‘the treatment’ to get involved. It might be a big ask for the young man.
I am not surprised that
Holywell
has got plenty of mentions in this thread. A mark of 145 looks lenient to me. His jumping has improved with every run to hardly be a worry nowadays and his win over Victor Hewgo looks excellent in hindsight. Everything he has done this year has been without the blinkers that made him travel like a tank in the Pertemps last year. He won that from 140 in spite of idling once he hit the front, then roughed up Solwhit at Aintree. He has a huge chance.
The form of
Ma Filleule
‘s last win did not work out, but Nicky Henderson has a history of targeting mares at this race. Barry G favours the sketchy-jumping Hadrian’s Approach, though. That’s hardly a compliment to Ma Filleule.
I have always been a big
Alfie Sherrin
fan and backed him two years ago, but it could be that he needs a marathon test now. Alan Berry is not everyone’s cup of tea, but he didn’t do much wrong in the Kim Muir last year. Alfie still couldn’t really land a blow and hasn’t eased much in the weights since.
Fruity O’Rooney
is a regular in this race and has tumbled down the weights after a few conservative rides. If he bounds out near the front, he’ll have at least an each-way squeak from his lowest mark in a while.
Tour Des Champs
has been throwing in a few mistakes lately, but ran a huge race in the BetBright. He might have needed the run after a couple of months off during the traditional Twiston-Davies Jan-Feb slowdown and still sits of a good mark of 129. He goes pretty well at Cheltenham and looks good each-way to me.
So I’m going with:
Holywell (WIN)
Tour Des Champs (e-w @20-1)
Fruity O’Rooney e-wMa Filleule has a claimer on board which will take her under the magic 11st mark. However, her price is drifting. Was concerned how novicey she was but she has chase form in France [perhaps it’s the drying ground that’s a problem]. Anyway, I’ve backed her. Perhaps Nico gets on really well with her?? In fact I’ve backed half the field for this race cause it’s my favourite. Rupert, Tour, Golden Chieftain,King Massini, Muldoons Picnic [will he run without Jason?] and the mare. Small ew bets at the bookies. Just hope I don’t change my mind at the track tomorrow.
Time for a rethink now the weights have been declared…
Vintage Star carries 11-4 and that’s too much in my opinion.
Cause of Causes + Indian Castle don’t run so I’m now looking at Time For Rupert to bring a smile to my face.
Good luck with your bets.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.