- This topic has 385 replies, 102 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 12 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
sixfieldsboy
Believe me if I bet I am not gambling, and the inference that I do seems rathr insulting. I only bet where I believe I have an edge. On occasions that edge may be illusory but on other occasions it will be stronger than I thought. My betting these days tends to be on jump racing in Scotland and the North, on a group of horses that I am familiar with.
I am more than capable of using my loaf, and that’s why I have a chance of coming out ahead.
If your posts truly reflect what you think about racing then I do wonder why you bother to waste time on the sport. But then I’ve covered this ground in discussion with Nor1 as well.
I will continue to bet where I consider I can gain an edge and I will be confident that I can come out ahead. More to the point though I treat ‘inside information’ with a good deal of distain since it is often tainted by self interest and the source’s bias. In fact it often suits me that ‘information’ makes a horse shorter odds than it should be if it makes my considered selection a longer price. I included Ryminster in my Kelso preview recently, posted well before the Race (yuk, I sound like a tipster!) because I’dspotted a pattern in the horse’s form that the market seemed to haev ignored. It won at 14/1. That’s the sort of bet which gives me a chance of coming out ahead and will continue to do so.
I don’t agree with some of the views expressed by a number of posters on this thread, but I’d be only to happy to discuss the matters with them on course sometime. If anyone is coming to Musselburgh this Friday maybe thay can point out to me all the shennanigans that are going on at the meeting, who is pulling the strokes and when. Alternatively the only shennanigans I’m likely to see is Mrs McGregors More Shennanigans, though don’t give it much of a thought unless it’s droppedcto the lowest level handicap.
There’s clearly no convincing some. If you want to see demons you can find them or imagine them. They exist but there are a good deal less of them than some would have us believe.
Rob
Rob, you sound entirely sensible and probably aren’t the type that the industry feeds off and bleeds dry. If you stick to a course that you know inside out and horses you know inside out, then you probably cut down your chances of being affected by any potential malpractise. Good luck to you
I haven’t seen Tuesday’s race involving Shiwawa, so I’d be interested in the views of those who know about this sort of thing.
In particular, maybe Fists " You shhowme any recording of any race and if one is deliberatly stopped I could spot it with my eyes shut and there are thousands of people like me……"
would be able to help me here.I have never made my betting pay, and never will. But its not because racing is bent, thats for sure. Its because I am an indisciplined scrote!
Refreshingly honest Firefox
Mark,
You wrote and I quote
"All the people I know who read (Racing Post) what was reportedly said in court, was amazed the case against Fallon ever came to court.
To think you know better than the judge (without hearing what he heard in court) is in my opinion exceedingly arrogant."
If you honestly believe that everything wrote in any paper is correct ( you have clearly never read the Daily Sport) then I am afraid it is you who is exceedingly arrogant and may I say very naive. Did you read all the coverage in the Post or just listen to your friends who also clearly were not there but read selective reporting.
If your friends were there throughout the trail then I apolgise to them in advance.
I never said I listened to the transcripts of the Court case nor did I say the Judge was wrong. the point I was making is not everyone who gets found not guilty in Court or has a trial dropped is innocent.If that is your opinion then fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Mine opinion remains the same with Fallon as with others in the sport. I dare say that a lot more share my opinion than yours though. I could be wrong though!
Mark,
You wrote and I quote
"All the people I know who read (Racing Post) what was reportedly said in court, was amazed the case against Fallon ever came to court.
To think you know better than the judge (without hearing what he heard in court) is in my opinion exceedingly arrogant."
If you honestly believe that everything wrote in any paper is correct ( you have clearly never read the Daily Sport) then I am afraid it is you who is exceedingly arrogant and may I say very naive. Did you read all the coverage in the Post or just listen to your friends who also clearly were not there but read selective reporting.
If your friends were there throughout the trail then I apolgise to them in advance.
I never said I listened to the transcripts of the Court case nor did I say the Judge was wrong. the point I was making is not everyone who gets found not guilty in Court or has a trial dropped is innocent.If that is your opinion then fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Mine opinion remains the same with Fallon as with others in the sport. I dare say that a lot more share my opinion than yours though. I could be wrong though!
No idea,
You don’t arf live up to your name
I agree with you about normal papers, I myself do not buy any newspaper other than racing papers because there is no way of knowing what is true or false. Though I think when reporting a court case they have to be careful.
Two friends of mine were not in court no, but both are avid readers of the Racing Post and followed every word of the transcripts in the paper. The Racing Post is not the Daily Sport, I think we can believe the transcripts in it. Particularly whith what happened to the Sporting Life in the earlier Fallon case. I myself bought the paper on occasions just to read about the case (though did not buy every paper).
My two freinds found it surprising the case ever went to court and one even said he expected his case to be dropped.
The fact that neither of us was in court is entirely my point. When a judge throws out a case because it is obvious what the verdict is going to be; we are not there, so should believe in his judgement.
Hmmmm, yes you did say the judge got it wrong. You said quote"I am afraid if you think Fallon was innocent then you certainly look at life through rose tinted glasses". If Fallon was not innocent then he must have been guilty. It certainly does not read as if you were just making a point, that not all people found not guilty or have their case dropped are innocent. It reads as if you are saying Fallon was guilty.
And it may be your "opinion", but if a Racing Post journalist was to write that first sentence; it would not make any difference saying it is his opinion. It would still get him and the Racing Post in trouble. So I ask you again to change that sentence. If you say you do not mean what was written why not change it?
Mark
Value Is EverythingEven though this is a forum, most of us are anonymous, and I could lie through my teeth, what the hell is the point? Why pretend you are lets say in Charlie Egerton’s pocket cos you happened to ride work for him a few years back, or that you are on first name terms with every racing personality anyone on the forum mentions?
I guess self delusion is the thin end of the wedge and probably where betting is concerned a bit of a dangerous thing to do. So I am happy to admit my shortcomings, and equally happy to accept and advice from more successsful punters in places like TRF.
Quite agree with you old chap
The urge to ‘prove’ yourself, be it with the truth or embellished with tallish stories, from behind a cloak of anonymity is a paradox common to most internet forums
Ginger tipster is a bookies wet dream. It’s him and his form book against the world!
It’s no secret that the only realistic way to make decent money from racing is to get ‘inside’ the loop. Why do you think the likes of Harry Findlay the self confessed "dog man" got into racing ownership? Why do you think Michael Owen bought his own stables? For the love of horses alone. Do me a favour!
It’s me and you against the world kid he mumbles to himself.
Thanks Rob and Kentdougal for your words of defence. Don’t think I have to say much now.
Sixfieldsboy,
I see because of Rob’s eloquent post (puts all of us to shame) you think he can make a profit through form study alone.
Am I still someones wet dream or can I make a profit from my form book too?
Mate, if a punter has any inside information it is likely to be only from one stable. So how do you know if any other stable’s horses have improved / fancied? No way of judging other horses in the field means no way of knowing whether a horse is a good bet.
Many "insiders" exaggerate their claims to seem more important than they actually are.
It is very difficult to keep good inside info secret, therefore there is often a lot of punters in on it. Therefore, unless you are one of the first to get on, you will be taking under the odds anyway.
Bookmakers themselves have moles in stables, so any inside information may also be known to them. So they have already altered their odds accordingly. Therefore, punters working on inside info are again taking under the odds.
If inside information was king then are Ladbrokes commiting economic suicide by having a shop in the centre of Lambourn?
If inside info was king, why are stable lads still stable lads and not millionaires?
Inside information effects prices, shortening the horses concerned. which is great because the form horses drift and end up even better value.
I am just happy to be anyones wet dream mate, but I do hope it is either the Hills or Stan James reps.
Mark
The Ginger Wet DreamValue Is Everything- Total Posts 158
just remembered about another case of race fixing where this horse was spiked by the blacksmith and layed for a lot of money on betfair.
Trainer Alan Berry and his blacksmith Steve O’Sullivan have been told there is no case to answer four and a half years after the filly Hillside Girl was pulled up lame at Carlisle on June 15, 2003, and three years after they were charged with conspiracy to defraud customers of Betfair. The pair had both pleaded not guilty at the Old Bailey in November last year.
Looking like a good example of once bitten, twice shy, the CPS statement said that after the collapse of the Fallon case, there "is no longer a realistic prospect of conviction".
Originally, three people – Berry, O’Sullivan and amateur jockey Dale Jewett – were found guilty of various offences by the British Horseracing Authority and either fined or banned. The filly’s rider, Paul Bradley, was cleared of any breaches of the Rules of Racing.
However, O’Sullivan and Jewett still faced BHA charges that they had committed a fraudulent act. This was put on hold when the City of London police included the charges in their race-fixing investigation. The BHA said yesterday that they still needed to clear up these "loose ends" with O’Sullivan and Jewett.
O’Sullivan’s solicitor Richard Brooks, of Withy King, took a swing at the CPS. "It’s an anti-climax in a way," he said, "but at least the jury will not be troubled to finding my client innocent. The CPS says it has concluded that there is no longer a realistic prospect of a conviction of either Mr Berry or Mr O’Sullivan. I disagree. There never was a realistic prospect of a conviction."
He added: "The Hillside Girl case was quite discrete and had virtually nothing to do with the Kieren Fallon case. The collapse of that case did not affect the evidence in this case. It simply affected the confidence of the CPS and brought the realisation that things are not necessarily what they seem."
Critics of the BHA’s security department will argue that this is another big setback for them, but I would argue otherwise. In this case, the BHA, without the need for quite the same burden of proof as trial by jury, dealt with the offences back in 2004 – and that should have been the end of it.
They did not hand the case over to the City of London Police but the police picked it up on the fringes of their investigation into Miles Rodgers, a central figure in the Fallon case. For the time being, it seems, racing will be allowed to deal with its own affairs in-house, which is as it should be in sport.
this was never handed over to the police to save the sport from more setbacks. if the fallon case hadnt have happened they would of been banged up..
from a earlier reply i also want to say i am not saying all owners and trainers are corrupt but what i am saying stopping horses by some people does happen i know for a fact that is all im saying.
This did not end up where I intended it to, apologies to all.
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwayskj,
What do you mean by "had the Fallon case not happened they would be bangged up"?
Are you saying you know Alan Berry and co would have been found guilty of whatever charge was going to be made on them?
Innocent until proven guilty I say.
You seem to be saying the BHA should cover whatever happens in racing.
Racing or any other sport is not above the law I say.Fraud is fraud.
If there is enough evidence of people defrauding others, e.g. betfair customers, it is only right they should stand trial in a proper court. There must be some chance of people perpetrating fraud be charged, found guilty and go to prison. Otherwise there is insuficient detterent for fraud within racing.
If there is not enough evidence then, and only then, should the BHA handle it.
Everyone agrees KJ, stopping horses does go on in British racing, the question is (threads title) is it endemic?
Mark
Value Is Everythingfrom a earlier reply i also want to say i am not saying all owners and trainers are corrupt but what i am saying stopping horses by some people does happen i know for a fact that is all im saying.
kj
Fine, if you know for a fact that it is happening then name names, or tell the Racing Authorities.
There’s a lot of bluster from certain parties on this thread but precious little substance.
Rob
- Total Posts 17716
The thing is that most people who are complaining about corruption probally are not getting the info, say you did get the info on a non trier for example I bet you wouldn’t miss the chance of cashing in.
- Total Posts 17716
Incredible thread this; the Betfair forum looks more attractive by the day.
Mr Wilson
I doubt even high-rolling owners like Harry Findlay and David Johnson would make racing pay purely on inside information. They’ve still got to have more than a working knowledge of the form of the opposition – and a good idea of what they’re up to.
No matter how well-connected they are, they’re unlikely to find the answers on the end of a phone, and are subject to exactly the same conundrum as everyone else betting on the race; their own horses apart.Mr. Wilson
I don’t bet often or lay horses but when I know an horse is expected to win, because in previous runs it’s been held up (stopped), I will bet a small amount if the odds are good. If successful the winnings go to a charity.
Those who wish can jeer, call me a santimonious old fool, or get the sick bag out.
No, I’m not wealthy.
Mr. Wilson
I don’t bet often or lay horses but when I know an horse is expected to win, because in previous runs it’s been held up (stopped), I will bet a small amount if the odds are good. If successful the winnings go to a charity.
Those who wish can jeer, call me a santimonious old fool, or get the sick bag out.
No, I’m not wealthy.
Not many bets like that around, "expected to win" (better than 50%, true odds on chance) yet must be "if the odds are good".
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingI will name someone now who did try and lay a runner who was a certain loser.
Me!
I went to an open day at Whitsbury and asked a stable lad where Derby 5th Salford City was going to run next? "America" he said, "will be leaving our yard very soon to be trained there."
Wanted to take a better look at this animal before he left. "Be careful he bites", I thought he meant if you put your hand up to him. Not a bite of it, he threw his neck out the stable door, lunged to his right and bit my arm. The bruise was blue and did not disappear for a month.
Anyway, when I got home I was looking at the ante-post lists on betfair. Salford City was still quoted for the Eclipse on Betfair. It seems many more people knew. Was a very big price. May be I wanted to get my own back on the horse in some way, but I put in that I wanted to lay it for a tenner.
An hour later I realised what I had done, went back and luckily nobody had taken the bet.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingAn utterly fantastic thread. Only have a computer at work and having been off for a few days just spent hour and a half enjoying all 12 pages. Informative, balanced and for the most part non-personal. Congratulations everyone.
My view is there is some skullduggery afoot but as a punter this can be factored into calculations, so in effect its essential for a decent price. It would be a boring old sport if the best horse won every race or all handicappers dead-heated.
I actually started the O’Regan thread referred to earlier and I’m quite happy to admit he may not have jumped off.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.